Inflation Records Marginal Drop in November, Now 15.90%

*Food pressure persists

By Ndubuisi Francis in Abuja

For the 10th consecutive month, inflation rate continued a downward trajectory, recording a marginal decline from 15.91 per cent in October to 15.90 per cent in November.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation increased by 15.90 per cent (year-on-year) in November,  0.01 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in October (15.91) per cent.

The 10th consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate) though still positive in headline year-on-year inflation since January 2017  increases were recorded in all Glossary: Classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP)  divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.78 per cent in November 2017, 0.02 per cent points higher from the rate of 0.76 per cent recorded in October.

This represents the first rise in month-on- month inflation following five consecutive months on month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12-month period ending in November 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12-month period was 16.76 per cent, showing 0.21 per cent point lower from 16.97 per cent recorded in October 2017.

The Urban inflation rate rose by 16.27 per cent (year-on-year) in November from 16.19 per cent recorded in October, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by 15.59 per cent in November from 15.67 per cent in October.

On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.85 per cent in November, up by 0.03 from 0.82 per cent recorded in October, while the rural index rose by 0.724 per cent in November, up by 0.009 when compared with 0.715 per cent in October.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.26 per cent in November. This is less than 17.57 per cent reported in October 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in November is 16.29 per cent compared to 16.41 per cent recorded in October 2017.

High year-on-year food prices and food price pressure continued into November though consistently at a slower pace month on month. The Food Index increased by 20.30 per cent (year-on-year) in November, down marginally by 0.01 per cent points from the rate recorded in October (20.31 per cent).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.88 per cent in November, up by 0.03 per cent from 0.85 per cent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in month-on-month rise following five consecutive disinflation in month-on-month inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57 per cent in May 2017.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the 12-month period ending in November 2017 over the previous 12-month average was 19.39 per cent, 0.25 per cent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in October (19.14) per cent.

The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereal, milk, cheese, eggs, coffee, tea, cocoa, fish and Oil and fats.

All Items Less Farm Produce/Core Inflation

The ‘’All Items less Farm Produce’’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of November at 12.20 per cent points, up from 12.14 per cent recorded in October as all key divisions which contributes to the index increased.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.77 per cent in November, higher from 0.76 per cent recorded in October.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 13.93 per cent for the 12-month period ending in November 2017; this is 0.48 per cent points lower than 14.41 per cent recorded in October.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of motorcycles, bicycles, glassware and tableware, hospital and medical services, spirits, household textiles, insurance, accommodation services, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, other services in respect of personal transport equipment, and fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment.