FG: Report on Nigeria’s Poverty Rating Not Based on Recent Survey

The Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning has faulted Nigeria’s recent poverty rating on the World Poverty Clock by World Data Lab in Vienna, Austria, which indicated that Nigeria’s poverty rating was getting worse.

The Special Adviser to the budget minister in charge of Media, Mr.  Akpanmdem James said in a statement at the weekend that the ministry had reviewed this report and assured Nigerians that the report was not based on any recent surveys of the poverty levels in the country and cannot be relied upon as a factual indication of recent trends .

According to the statement, the Poverty Clock does  did not, directly rely on household survey data as national statistical offices in most countries do.

“Instead, as stated in their methodology, they rely on models to estimate poverty rates across countries using data provided by national governments to international agencies. The models make assumptions on expected future changes in income, IMF medium-term growth forecasts and long-term projections and analysis developed by the OECD, all of which are significantly influenced by uncertainty. It is, in essence, just a model based on a lot of assumptions which cannot substitute for field work involving actual data collected from households in a consistent and representative way,” James said.

He argued that in the specific case of Nigeria, the Poverty Clock used as baseline the General Household Survey of 2012/13 which was not designed to measure poverty indicators accurately, adding that it also follows a methodology that can be misleading if relied upon for poverty estimates.

“In line with extant laws, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) remains the statutory agency of government with responsibility for producing Nigeria’s official statistics, including poverty estimates. Like several other countries, Nigeria’s poverty estimates are obtained from the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS) undertaken every five years, and which was last conducted in 2010,” he said.

According to him while several other household surveys are routinely conducted by the NBS, none are as comprehensive as the NLSS, which is the appropriate household survey to determine poverty estimates.

He disclosed that the next round of the NLSS is currently being undertaken by NBS, in collaboration with the World Bank, adding that this will be concluded in 2019.

“There is currently no other comprehensive household study on current poverty trends in Nigeria. It is therefore pertinent to note thatthe World Poverty Clock is a model-based estimation of poverty, relying on projections and assumptions that cannot substitute for actual household survey approach which most countries adopt,” James added.

“This implies that it is not possible to conclude Nigerians poverty position until the NBS completes the NLSS, as no comprehensive field work has been done in Nigeria, and among Nigerian households, as is required according to standard international methodology,” he said.

“It is however important to point out that the Federal Government of Nigeria, in line with strategies outlined in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), remains committed to promoting sustainable economic development through various social investment schemes that will yield positive impacts on poverty and unemployment;and willconsequently change the trajectory of poverty in the country,” James added.