From Peaceful Throng to Panicked Herd

Segun James and Shola Oyeyipo, write on the growing exasperation of Nigerians and the perceived aloofness of the Buhari administration.

Should Nigerians worry about the fears raised by General Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, a former Minister of Defence, former Chief of Army Staff and respected elder statesman, that the country may be heading for tumultuous times as the nation races towards the 2019 general election? He insists that the nation is heading for a major crisis.

To the Nigerian civil war hero, President Muhammadu Buhari who he supported in 2015 should be held responsible for the growing dissension. Danjuma regrets his support for Buhari, whose policies he warned, is driving the nation towards the precipice.   

Other leading personalities like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a host of others who believe that the All Progressives Congress (APC) led government of Buhari is leading the nation towards a point of no return have become very vociferous in their quest remove Buhari.

In the stormy world of Nigerian politics, Buhari’s handling of political issues has been anything but intellectual. Among politicians, President Buhari has been an unmitigated disaster. The country has been stumbling and fumbling from one crisis to the other without any intellectual response to solving it.

Today, one of the most perplexing questions in Nigerian politics is: can the nation afford another four years of Buhari? With a weak opposition – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a successful election in the bag; and a buoyant approval from the people on his anti-corruption fight, you would think that Buhari will have little  fight in 2019, but unfortunately, the reverse is the case. Nigerians are not only groaning under economic recession, corruption has actually doubled under his watch, according to Transparency International, a global anti-corruption watchdog. 

Few political relationships are as volatile and important as that between Obasanjo and Buhari. Although they were a formidable combination when they teamed up against political enemies or forces, but they have clashed more often than most. And the fact is that they have always shared a cat and mouse relationship.

Though it seems there are not formidable opposition to President Buhari, but that is absolutely incorrect. Truth is, forces working against the incumbent Nigerian President are mounting daily and they are equally perfecting how best to oust his leadership.

There have been obvious alignments and realignments lately. The recent visits of former President Olusegun Obasanjo to the likes of his former friend-turned foe, Chief Olabode George and Afenifere leadership at the residence of Chief Ayo Adebanjo penultimate week were pointers to a continued consolidation of his Nigeria Intervention Movement (NIM).

The visit became more interesting with the notable presence of staunch critics of the former Obasanjo like, Pastor Tunde Bakare, who was President Buhari’s running mate. He said he was ready to work with Obasanjo since the underlying interest is to move Nigeria forward.

Bakare said: “Being a critic is not an enemy of the state or the nation. The thinker is the enemy of the mob. If you say I have been a critic of Chief Obasanjo, look at him now being a critic of Muhammadu Buhari too, yet he facilitated his coming in. Critic is not the same thing as criticism – it is let us reason together, things are not going the right way. That is all.”

According to him, the prayer of the concerned leaders at the meeting is that it will fashion ways to put Nigeria on the right path.

There were however indications that the meeting had a fruitful outcome. One of the participants told THISDAY that, “it was positive. Prof Mabogunje song in Yoruba, “Why shouldn’t we be happy? It has gone exactly the way we want it to go,” was another indication f the frutitful outcome of the meeting.

While Obasanjo did not comment on the purpose of the meeting, his host, Adebanjo said the purpose was to foster peace and unity among Yoruba leaders to enable them take care of the interest of the nation.

According to him, the meeting is “Nothing more than the fact that Nigeria must move forward. All attempts to establish dictatorial tendencies in the country must be opposed. There must be unity to destroy mediocrity and dictatorship.”

Though he agreed that the meeting was targeted at bringing about the objectives for which Afenifere and other Yoruba leaders stand for, he was not specific on whether the leaders have narrowed down on any candidate for the 2019 election.

“What is important is that we have our common goal. We don’t have a candidate yet. We must agree first. Any difference among us must be settled. If you are not united you can’t fight the battle. The Yoruba man must put on their thinking cap,” he said.

It is instructive that Adebanjo again played host to the Convener, Northern Elders Forum, Prof. Ango Abdulahi. At the forum, leaders from the southern and northern Nigeria agreed to form a new Nigeria Elders’ Forum (NEF) that will comprise all the geopolitical regions in the country.

Though Abdulahi, who spoke after the over two-hour closed-door meeting with South-west leaders at the Lekki home of Afenifere chieftain, Chief Adebanjo, restricted himself to the intention of the elders to work together to put the country on the path of development, the fact is that the Afenifere leadership has never shied away from articulating its negative disposition to the Buhari administration, especially because of his opposition to the efforts to restructured Nigeria.

The Afenifere leader, Adebanjo, who received Ango, had with in the meeting, Prof. Banji Akintoye, Dr. Amos Akingba, Mr. Yinka Odumakin and the President, Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, Alhaji Yerima Shettima. They all agreed with Abdulahi on the proposal for unity among the leaders, saying: “It is necessary for elders to find ways to work together in order to get Nigeria on the right path and to end the present condition in Nigeria.”

The Afenifere leadership has never pretended about its disapproval of the Buhari leadership. For them, one of the most important factors that will determine who gets South-west support and shape the outcome of the 2019 general election is restructuring. They will only support a candidate ready to work for a restructured Nigeria.

This build-up from the series of consultative meetings geared towards removing Buhari in 2019 cannot be taken for granted, especially when the Southern and Northern leaders successfully collaborated and agreed on some burning issues, particularly the herdsmen killings and general state of insecurity, economy and poverty, restructuring and some other issues on the front burner, it will become an herculean task for the ruling APC and the handlers of the Buhari political machinery to wave the movement aside.

Truth be told; there is element of terror in our country and it is becoming most frightening and must be combated. The moment when a peaceful throng of people turns into a panicked herd is difficult to predict, yet, once triggered, it is almost impossible to calm the hysteria. In the polity, it is better to avert panic than try to pacify it.

These types of hysteria took place in North Africa and the Middle-east where the 2011 Arab spring triggered by a self immolation by an angry man led to the fall of many leaders, destruction of many cities and is still raging in Syria.

A similar frenzy is gradually building-up in Nigeria, especially in the Middle-belt states of Plateau, Benue and Taraba where reports of rampant killings, supposedly by Fulani herdsmen are recorded almost daily. A number of leaders, especially General Danjuma have openly accused the military of turning a blind eye to the killings and he has also called on the people to defend themselves.

Although the General stopped short at asking the people to take to arms, it is obvious that the only means to defend themselves from the raging AK47 totting herdsmen is to take to arms too.

The activities of the herdsmen has continued to confound the government and the president seems not to have the political will to end their murderous activities, a situation that has given rise to accusations of ethnic cleansing and religious bias against the president.

An astonishing number of people from the South-east are responsible for the economic diversity and development of the northern states; and the oil that is the mainstay of the nation’s economic well-being comes from the Niger Delta. Nigeria owes its continued existence to its chequered prosperity – wealth from oil money.

Nigerians are groaning under the heavy burden of economic recession. Against this background, it was revealing to learn from the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) that only 350 Nigerians are responsible for more than 80 per cent of the N5.4 trillion debt portfolio of the nation.

According to the Managing Director of AMCON, Ahmed Kuru, the 350 Nigerians or their businesses, owe a whopping N4.3 trillion of the N5.4 trillion debt profile of the company, an amount which is over 50 per cent of the 2018 Budget of Nigeria.

 “We have 350 Nigerians that have obligations or control more than 80 per cent of all AMCONs debt portfolio.

“So, if you are talking about N5.4 trillion, only 350 Nigerians are supposed to pay more than 80 per cent of that amount, and they are normal people you see on the streets,” he said.

“I can tell you that today; our major challenge has to do with the judicial process. In other climes, what they do is that they allow AMCON to own the assets ab-initio, which means I have paid for the loans from the commercial banks, I have taken over the loan and I will take it over with the assets so I can sell the assets from day one.

“But here, somebody can decide to take you to court and he has to be heard. He can lock you up with judicial processes and technicalities for 10 years, 15 years or even 20 years.

“If we can have a system where rightly or wrongly we can conclude a case within three months, we can finish our assignments and go.

“The most fundamental thing is that this money must be recovered whether they like it or not.

“They can come to us and we negotiate, and have a payment plan, or we take over your asset that is what the law says, it has nothing to do with AMCON,” he said.

On the day of reckoning, history may assess President Buhari’s response to national integration, from the moment a battered nation desired a responsive leadership and he failed; a lapse that has triggered the drift that the nation is now experiencing.

Today, everybody is complaining about the dysfunction in the system, a government divided against itself; the APC, a party that is not coordinated and Nigerians, a people exasperated by a president that is totally distant from the reality of things in his government and the state of affairs in the country.