Again, Non-oil Sector Boosts GDP to 2.38% in Q4

*Oil production drops to 1.91mbpd

By James Emejo in Abuja

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate increased to 2.38 per cent (year-on- year) in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Q4, 2018), indicating a 0.55 percentage rise compared to the 1.81 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This also represented an increase of 0.27 per cent when compared to the 2.11 per cent growth rate posted in the fourth quarter of 2017.

According to the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report for the fourth quarter and full year 2018, released Tuesday by the statistical agency, on a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 5.31 per cent.

“The fourth quarter growth performance implies that real GDP grew at an annual growth rate of 1.93 per cent in 2018, compared to 0.82 per cent recorded in 2017, an increase of 1.09 per cent points,” the NBS stated.

In Q4, aggregate nominal GDP stood at N35.23 trillion, higher than N31.27 trillion recorded in Q4, 2017, representing a nominal growth rate of 12.65 per cent.
Real GDP growth stood at 19.04 trillion.

However, nominal GDP for the whole of 2018 stood at N127. 76 trillion, representing a nominal growth rate of 12.36 per cent when compared to N113.71 trillion in 2017.

Average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the 1.94 mbpd in Q3 2018 as well as 1.95 mbpd recorded in Q4,2017.
The oil sector contributed 7.06 per cent to real GDP in Q4, down from 9.38 per cent in Q3 and 7.35 per cent in Q4,2017.

For 2018, the contribution of the oil sector to aggregate real GDP was 8.60 per cent, compared to 8.67 per cent in 2017, the NBS further noted.

It stated that the oil sector recorded a negative real GDP growth rate of 1.62 per cent (year-on-year) in Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81 per cent relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017.

On the other hand, the non-oil sector contributed 92.94 per cent to real GDP in Q4, 2018, slightly higher than the 92.65 per cent recorded in Q4 2017.

The non-oil sector grew by 2.70 per cent in real terms within the review period. This is 1.25 per cent higher than the growth rate recorded in Q4 2017, and 0.38 per cent higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018.

On an annual basis, the non-oil sector recorded a growth rate of 2 per cent in 2018, performing considerably better than 0.47 per cent in 2017.

For 2018, annual contribution of the non-oil sector was 91.40 per cent compared to 91.33 per cent in 2017.

A breakdown of the sectoral contribution to growth showed that agriculture contributed 26.15 per cent to overall GDP in real terms in Q4, compared to 29.25 per cent in the preceding quarter but slightly higher than the 26.13 per cent recorded in Q4, 2017.

The sector contribution to real GDP in 2018 stood at 25.13 per cent, an increase from 25.08 per cent in 2017.

In real terms, agricultural sector grew by 2.46 per cent (year-on-year), a decrease by –1.78 per cent from the corresponding period of 2017, but an increase of 0.55 per cent compared to the preceding quarter.

It grew at 2.12 per cent in 2018, lower than the 3.45 per cent recorded in 2017.

Manufacturing sector contribution to real GDP in Q4 2018 remained unchanged at 8.86 per cent, same as recorded in its 2017 share and as reflected in the annual contribution, which rose only slightly from 9.18 per cent in 2017 to 9.20 per cent in 2018.

The sector recorded a real GDP growth of 2.35 per cent in Q4, higher than the 1.92 per cent in the preceding quarter and 0.14 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2017.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector growth rate stood at 5.46 per cent, while the annual growth rate was 2.09 per cent in 2018. The annual growth rate was a significant improvement over the –0.21 per cent recorded in 2017.

The contribution of trade to real GDP in Q4 was 16.50 per cent, higher than the 15.80 per cent recorded in Q3 but lower than the 16.72 per cent recorded in the previous year.

The sector’s contribution to real GDP in 2018 stood at 16.44 per cent, a slight decline from 16.86 per cent recorded in 2017.

In real terms, trade GDP growth rate stood at 1.02 per cent, which is 0.04 per cent higher than recorded in the preceding quarter.

Also, the information and communications sector accounted for 12.40 per cent of total real GDP in Q4 and 12.22 per cent of total real GDP in 2018.

In real terms, the sector recorded a growth rate of 13.20 per cent in Q4, representing an increase of 14.65 per cent when compared to Q4 2017.

Quarter-on-quarter, the sector exhibited a real GDP growth rate of 23.75 per cent as well as 9.65 per cent for 2018.