How Ready is the National Assembly for 2020 Budget?

With the submission last week of the 2020-2022 medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper (mtef/fsp) to the National Assembly for approval by the executive, the legislature appears ready to have the 2020 budget presented before it by President Muhammadu Buhari, report Deji Elumoye and Shola Oyeyipo

For the first time in the life of budget presentation under the current democratic dispensation, the old budget cycle of January to December may resurface with effect from next year. This is because the Executive has shown sincerity of purpose with the submission of the 2020-2022 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) to the two chambers of the National Assembly for approval last week.

The leadership of both the Senate and House of Representatives read the President’s letter at plenary last Wednesday. The implication of the early submission of the budget documents is that once the MTEF and FSP drafts were approved by the Assembly within the next few weeks, it will create room for the Executive to use the approval to prepare the 2020 budget estimates that would then be laid before the joint sitting of the National Assembly by President Buhari.

With the look of things, President Buhari may present next year’s budget proposals before the Assembly latest by the end of October.

Already, barely 24 hours after the covering letter of the MTEF/FSP draft were read at plenary, the Senate, last Thursday referred the draft to its committees on Finance and National Planning for further legislative duties and are to report back to plenary on Wednesday, October 2.

There is therefore the assurance that the Senate might this week debate the joint committees report on the document and possibly approve the MTEF/FSP draft. By implication, the House too might deliberate on the draft and also approve of the documents within the next one week or two.

The Senate President, Dr. Ahmed Lawan, had also given an assurance that the legislature was fully prepared to return the budget cycle to January to December as against the current system of June to May.

Lawan was optimistic that if next year’s budget was presented by the Executive in October, all the relevant agencies would swing into action towards ensuring that the budget was passed latest by early December.

Highlights of the 35-page 2020-2022 MTEF/FSP documents include pegging of the projected budget profile for 2020 at N9.12trillion as against N8.92 trillion for 2019, and $55 oil price bench mark as against $60 used for the N8.9trn 2019 budget.

It also include 2.1m barrel oil production per day as against 2.30m barrels per day approved for the 2019 budget; the official exchange rate of N305 per dollar used for 2019 budget will still be used in 2020; inflation rate is projected at 10.81% as against 9.98% for 2019.

Further breakdown of the 2020 budget proposal of N9.12 trillion including N36.38 billion from grants and donor funding shows that interest payment on debts is estimated at N2.45 trillion; provision for Sinking Fund to retire maturing bonds to local contractors is N296 billion; personnel and pension costs to gulp N2 67 trillion and N536.72 billion respectively; N40.71 billion has been earmarked for Basic Health Care Provision Fund; N22.73 billion for GAVI/Routine immunization in the service-wide votes (SWV) and N89.44 billion for the power sector reform programme.

Others include N1.01 billion (exclusive of capital in statutory transfers) for Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) capital expenditure with the total capital expenditure standing at N2.17 trillion.

President Buhari, in a one-page letter titled, ‘Submission of 2020-2022 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework And Fiscal Strategy Paper’ addressed to both the Senate President, Dr Ahmad Lawan, and Speaker of the House, Hon Femi Gbajabiamila, canvassed for the early passage of the documents by the members of the two legislative chambers.

The President in the letter dated September 24, the day he addressed the United Nations General Assembly in New York, United States, was read at Wednesday’s plenary by the leadership of the two chambers.

He commended the effort of the federal lawmakers towards ensuring a cordial working relationship between the legislature and executive arms of government.

According to the President, “Given our shared objective of returning the budget to a predictable January – December fiscal year, with effect from 2020, I hereby forward the 2020/2022 FSP to the Distinguished Senate and trust that it would be extensively considered in order to facilitate the 2020 MTEF budget preparation.”

The four-paragraph letter read inter alia: “It is with pleasure that I hereby submit the 2020-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) to the Senate/House of Representatives.”

Also, last week, Gbajabiamila, continued to emphasise the supremacy of the legislature to carry out oversight on the Executive arm.

The Speaker had penultimate Friday, expressed disappointment and embarrassment when most of the Service Chiefs chose to ignore a meeting called by the House leadership to discuss the deteriorating security situation in the Boko Haram ravaged Borno State.

A meeting had been called but rather than attend, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Gabriel Olonisakin; Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Tukur Buratai; Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas and the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshall Sadiq Abubakar, were absent but sent representatives.

But the Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mr. Mohammed Abubakar Adamu; the Comptroller-General Immigration Service (CGIS), Muhammed Babandede and the Director-General, State Security Service (SSS), Mr. Yusuf Bichi, were personally present at the meeting.

Gbajabiamila instantly expressed disapproval for the show of disrespect for the National Assembly by the service chiefs, saying their action was at cross-purpose with the national interest. He did not hesitate to call off the meeting and postponed it till last Monday.

According to him, the reason for the meeting was basically to address the insecurity situation in certain areas of the country, examine the challenges confronting the military and to come up with the legislations capable of addressing the problems.

“Mr. President cannot work alone, he has to have people to delegate powers to as the Commander-in-Chief as dictated by our constitution, but because of the fact that Mr. President has delegated those powers to the Service Chiefs, we decided to call this meeting as representatives of the people.

“This meeting was not called by a committee of the House; not that it matters; the meeting was called by the highest level of the legislature; it was called personally by me as the Speaker of the house. The House is an institution. I cannot understate my disappointment or our disappointment for the rest of the Service Chiefs that are not here.

According to him, there was a motion on the floor of the House on the ‘Super Camp’ the previous day but it was not discussed, because it was a security matter with the lawmakers expecting that all such issues would be deliberated upon.

By the rescheduled date, last Monday, it was a full House as the service chiefs arrived earlier than the 10am scheduled for the meeting.

The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Gabriel Olonisakin was quick to tell the lawmakers that the top hierarchy of the Nigerian security architecture would not divulge military strategies so as not to compromise its operations and endanger the lives of troops on the field.

And on their decision to send representatives to the previous meeting, the CDS argued that the officers, who represented them, were adequately qualified to brief the National Assembly on military operations in Nigeria.

Olonisakin had noted that: “It is understandable that there must be some concerns about the security situation in the country. We are here to listen to those concerns that you have, that you need to express to and address, of course, with your support.

“However, I need to state that military and operational strategies are not usually discussed in open forums such as this, because we may inadvertently be giving valuable information to the adversary through such discussions. This could compromise our ongoing operations, put the lives of our troops at greater risk and jeopardise future plans.

“I will therefore crave the indulgence of the House leadership to allow us to listen to your concerns, observations and suggestions, and get back to you in a more appropriate forum.”

Responding, Gbajabiamila, said the National Assembly and the security chiefs are “fully in tandem and we are on one page,” adding that “I myself, together with some members, have been to Borno, I have been to Katsina, I have been to Zamfara, all in the last couple of months, because of the level of concern of the House and, if we have gone that far, then I believe it is important

“We have invited the Service Chiefs to collaborate as we have been doing all along on the security situation in Nigeria. To a very large extent, things have improved but unfortunately, there is a sudden optic in the security situation.

“I don’t know if we have moved from yellow to red as they would say in some other countries that is the reason why we have called this meeting to find out what the challenges are, why there is a sudden optic, what can be done – it has come at a time when the budget is about to be presented; in the next week or two. So, it is very timely.

“Money challenges too – what can the House do? And that is why we are here and I believe it is very important. Security is one of the challenges of the government. We have an obligation to arrest the situation whenever we can,” the Speaker further said.

Also present at the two-hour closed-door meeting were the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas and the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshall Sadiq Abubakar; the Comptroller-General, Immigration Service (CGIS), Muhammed Babandede; the Director-General, State Security Service (SSS), Mr. Yusuf Bichi; representatives of the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Tukur Buratai; Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mr. Mohammed Abubakar Adamu as well as Chairmen and Deputy Chairmen of all the relevant committees of the House.