INDIA’S COVID-19 CATASTROPHE

India’s calamity holds lessons for developing nations, writes Rajendra Aneja

It is ironic that India, which produces around 60 percent of the global vaccines, is facing a horrendous second wave of Covid-19. It is starved of vaccines, oxygen, ventilators, ICU beds, etc. Indian Covid-19 cases have augmented from about 100,000 daily in end-2020 to about 350,000 daily now. The health infrastructure is crumbling. Patients are dying in prestigious hospitals due to lack of oxygen. There are chilling pictures of patients lying in the hospital corridors, relatives of patients begging and borrowing oxygen cylinders and mass cremations and burials. Between 2,500 to 3,000 people are dying daily. Many crematoriums are short of firewood to burn dead bodies.

The USA, UK, UAE, Singapore are air-lifting oxygen, vaccines and ventilators to India. What transformed the “pharmacracy of the world”, into the global “hotspot of Covid-19”, literally overnight? How can the fifth largest global economy gasp for oxygen? What lessons can countries in Africa and Asia learn from the Indian debacle?

Strong Leadership: The Prime Minister should take charge of the Covid-19 crisis, establishing an All-Party War Room and managing it 24×7. The management of Covid-19, cannot be left to pious prayers or chance. It requires proactive management.

Prepare Worst Case Scenarios: India became casual, when the Covid-19 numbers dipped in early 2021. Covid-19 requires a war-like mindset. What will happen if cases in India spiral to 500,000 or a million per day? People could die in vast numbers. Countries should plan resources for the worst-case scenarios, even as they hope for the best.

Build Vaccine Buffers: Vaccinations had to be halted in many towns in India, due to shortages. India should have built a buffer of vaccines, before commencing inoculations or exporting the vaccines to 70 countries. From 1st May, India will inoculate the age group above 18 years. The country has 36.3 percent, translating to 500 million people in the age range of 19 to 44 years. Thus, India needs a billion doses for this age group. However, most vaccination centres do not have vaccines today. So, how will India source a billion jabs in the next few weeks?

Vaccination 24/7: Vaccinations are the only way, to arrest the spread of Covid-19. They should continue at a furious pace. India has been lackadaisical in vaccinations. India gloated that it has vaccinated 138 million people in 15 weeks. Devoid of hyperbole, India has vaccinated just 10.1 percent of its population with one jab and only 1.6 percent with both the jabs. Pathetic. At this rate, India will need 15.6 years to vaccinate its population. Absolute numbers are irrelevant; the percentage of population vaccinated is important. India must replace stances, with substance.

Free Jabs for All: India is announcing free jabs, as a munificent favour to its citizens. Bizarre. Unless the pandemic is controlled, the country is frozen. Smart nations will even pay their populations to get vaccinated, to reignite their economies. Vans, health workers on motor-cycles, foot soldier health workers, should visit slums and villages to vaccinate people. Shopping malls, university compounds, parking lots, etc., should be deployed to accelerate vaccinations.

Postpone Elections: All elections should be postponed to 2022. No public rallies should be permitted. Many leaders in India, including the Prime Minister, battled elections in the states, instead of Covid-19.

Production Boost: Production of vaccines, oxygen, Remdesivir, syringes, etc., should be augmented on a war-footing. Lifesaving drugs are being sold in the black market in India. The USA has deployed war laws to boost the production of vaccines. Developing countries need to do the same.

Clear Global vaccines: Vaccines cleared by WHO, USA and UK, should be approved immediately by governments. There is no need to haggle prices when people are dying. Developing countries should produce vaccines locally, through third-party manufacturing agreements.

Basket of Vaccines: Countries should source a basket of vaccines, rather than limit to one or two brands. In large populated countries like India, Nigeria, Egypt, the Johnson vaccine would be ideal, for it requires just one jab.

Night Curfews: If the disease spreads, cities with more than 500,000 population, should have night curfews. Whilst some lockdowns are imminent under these circumstances, they should be humane. Food, medicines should be available.

Ban Gatherings: Large religious gatherings should be banned for the next six months. In India, pilgrims flocked in millions, at the Kumbh Mela Festival, for a dip in the Ganges river. Cases spiralled. The festival should have been postponed. Attendance at marriages, celebrations, etc., should be restricted to 20 guests. Ideally, couples should get married in civil courts and celebrate when Covid-19 is harnessed.

Decentralise: Control on distribution and sales of the vaccines should be decentralised. The vaccine tap should not be controlled by a few persons in the central government. Large institutions, private and public, which have clinics and doctors should inoculate their own employees. Railways and airlines are large institutions with their own medical panels. They should vaccinate their staff. Similarly, large private companies like Colgate, Unilever, Nestle, etc., should source vaccines and inoculate employees and families. This will reduce the pressure on governments.

Incentivise People: Health departments should introduce vaccination contests, with daily targets for health workers, hospitals, and states. There should be generous financial rewards and recognitions for those who achieve vaccination targets.

Intensify Research: Scientists and pharma companies should research simpler forms of protecting people from Covid-19. Scientists in Cuba are conducting trials with a nasal spray vaccine. Pharma companies need to research whether oral forms of vaccination are feasible, like the polio drop, so that people do not have to visit hospitals for the jab.

Urgent research is also needed into the new double mutant variant of COVID-19, B.1.617, which is ravaging India. It should be controlled, before it claims more lives and cripples the economy.

Eschew Arrogance: India’s catastrophic plight is due to becoming overconfident, thinking it had kicked Covid-19, insouciance led by the leadership of the country and rotten planning and distribution of the vaccine and oxygen. Developing countries should avoid the state of hubris, in which India had descended.

Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and ‘Business Express’. He is a Management Consultant