As Ayade Sets APC, PDP On Edge, Who Wins the Prize?

The Frontlines By Joseph Ushigiale

In the build up to the 2019 governorship poll, rumours were rife in Cross River state of the probable defection of Governor Ben Ayade from his Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Those rumours were, in part, based on his perceived romance with the APC both at the national and in the state on the one hand and his neglect of his party both at the national and state levels.
In the end, the whole stories turned out to be a great hoax as the governor stayed put in his party and even went ahead to secure a landslide re-election for his second term.

Today, the same scenario is playing out as the two parties are now literally eating from Ayade’s hand as they fall heads over heels to wow him over. This year alone, we have seen countless meetings in Abuja including visits to Calabar by chieftains of both parties for the purpose of swaying Ayade to their sides.

Several reasons are being put forward for the ongoing political jostling between the parties for the governor’s hand. The APC is currently on an expansionist drive to create a mega pan-Nigerian one party state. Its idea therefore, is to win as more states as it can to stave off the current challenge from the rival PDP which is hoping to topple it in 2023 based on what it perceives as the failure of the President Muhammadu Buhari government to deliver on its campaign promises to the people.

The entire South-south states are impregnably PDP since 1999. The thinking in this region is that the APC is a northern party and with the rhetorics of conquering the South coming from the northern axis, the people view the party with distrust and those promoting it in the region as sell outs.
But the ruling party remains adamant and has been single minded and relentless in the pursuit of a major political shift in the region. Smarting from its botched exploit in Edo state where it lost control of the state back to the PDP, the APC is hellbent including using underhand tactics like threatening the governor’s with the EFCC to win some South south states like Cross River.

In the same vein, the PDP is looking to bolster its 2023 chances of ousting the ruling party and return to power in 2023 by first retaining the states it won in 2019 before eyeing other prospective states. But the snag in Cross River is that the party is at the cusp of loosing the state because of the running battles between some stakeholders and the governor.

These deep seated differences between Ayade and some stakeholders date to 1999. Some of these people claim that they have served the party from inception only for Ayade to emerge from nowhere to assume the position of governor. To them, Ayade is an outsider who just chanced on providence. Indeed, Ayade is a child of providence whose proverbial palm kernel has been cracked by benevolent gods.

In the political firmament, nobody knew Ayade until 2011 when he emerged and was given the Cross River North Senatorial ticket. After serving just a term in the senate, just when people were expecting him to be battling to return to the senate, he clinched the party governorship ticket and the rest as they say, is now history.

Now, for being so lucky, stakeholders had expected the governor to run an inclusive government based on wide consultations and participation. Regrettably, Ayade had his own style and would have none of that. The first sign of his governance style was his choice of appointees.

One had expected that a governor with very limited administrative assets would surround himself with tested technocrats who would guide him craft state policies. But what did he do? He flooded his cabinet with greenhorns,political jobbers and hangers-on who, on a good day had no business in government.

Ayade came under severe attack by stakeholders on another front. This was on the issue of non-patronage by the government of stakeholders who doubled as contractors. Most of them alleged that the governor and his family members notably his younger brother, Frank nicknamed, Co-governor and their cronies virtually cornered and were executing all state projects.

In addition, he was accused of embarking on white elephant projects like the super highway and deep seaport which were not realizable given the lean resources of the state to make them happen. They believed that had he been open and transparent and consulted widely, stakeholders would have guided him on the best way to steer his administration forward without frittering scarce resources on fruitless vain glorious projects.

It was under this explosive background that Ayade headed into the 2015 elections and that was why, because he had nothing concrete to showcase for his first four years, some of his allies advised him to jump ship to APC so that federal might would muscle him to power.

Luckily for him, his pitch to politicians in the Southern senatorial zone where he assured them that he was handing over power to them in 2023 resonated well with them and he got their backing. With the south under his belt and the north being his traditional constituency, Ayade was unstoppable and of course he won landslide victory for a second term.

So why would he want to jump a winning ship to APC? Ayade in his mind, believes Cross River is too delicate to play opposition politics. He believes that, for the state to gain its full potential, it must join mainstream politics to attract patronage.

Beyond that, Ayade has his eyes set firmly on 2023 for two reasons: most two-term governors want to either be Vice President or retire to the senate to cool their heels. Ayade is nursing both ambitions. While the first is beyond his immediate control, the second ambition is what has pitched him against some of his party men in the National Assembly.

At the root of the angst is Ayade’s quest to control the structure of the party as the leader. Regrettably, in the last congress that was conducted by the party supervised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), he lost to members of the National Assembly and the Abuja group.
After the result of the congress was announced, Ayade and his group kicked against it calling for its cancellation. A plethora of activities ensued including a Supreme Court ruling affirming the authenticity of the congress outcome.

Yet, while the result was being contested, the same result was used for the Cross River North senate by-election between Dr. Stephen Odey and Hon Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe. The outcome was that two winners emerged claiming to be the authentic candidates.

In the election that followed while the confusion lasted, Odey was declared winner and sworn in, prompting Jarigbe to challenge the victory up to the Supreme Court where he secured victory declaring him the winner of the by-election. At press time, Jarigbe is yet to be inaugurated to replace Odey,

Now, a corollary to all these maneuvers is that, those fighting Ayade believe that he drafted Odey, with whom he has made a pact with, to go to the Senate to complete late Rose Oko’s tenure and pave the way for him to contest in 2023. For Jarigbe to jump into the fray, Ayade sees Jarigbe as playing a spoiler’s role and therefore is fighting tooth and nail to ensure the congress result is upturned by all means so that he would remain the leader and call the shots.

Which is why Ayade is bluffing the party and threatening alongside his 18 council chairmen to quit the party if the result of the congress is not upturned in their favour. In using this as a bargaining chip, Ayade is rattling the PDP to make hay while the sun shines while prepping the APC that if push comes to shove they should be ready to receive him and waive all the conditions to allow him have his way.

The PDP appears to be taking Ayade’s threat seriously and has already set up a reconciliation committee headed by former Senate President Bukola Saraki. This was also followed by a recent visit, this week, by some PDP Governors including Sokoto governor, Aminu Tambuwal, Okowa of Delta and others whose mission was solely to persuade Ayade to remain in the party.

Already, the leading light of the Abuja struggle, Jarigbe recently warned in a paid advertorial carried in a national daily of dire consequences if the party opted to alter or jettisons the congress result. Jarigbe insists that the congress result remains sacrosanct and any attempt by the party to change the status quo would be tantamount to contempt of court.

As Ayade faces the homeward stretch, it does appears he has finally found his rhythm. It also looks like what appeared to be far away illusions are finally crystallizing with the arrival and recent delivery of two aircraft procured for the state-owned CallyAir.

In Obudu, the airport project is scaling up and racing to meet up with its projected completion target. Ditto his agricultural investments in rice, cocoa, banana and plantain plantations. All that is left for Ayade to win big is to embrace not only politics of ethics but politics of inclusion, give and take and compromise.

Although Ayade is smart but he is not the methuselah of our time. Nobody has the monopoly of knowledge. He must learn to listen even to opposing views. There is nothing wrong in listening and tapping into the anointing of your critics, who knows, the solution you are looking for may reside with them.

The current culture of exclusivity, impunity and clannish inclination must give way to state cohesion. Once the governor learns to trust and expand his circle of beneficiaries to also get state patronage, goes all out to embrace the entire state as his constituency, his new worldview would douse the current tension and peace would return to Cross River state for him to exit in the blaze of glory.

As both parties are jostling for his membership, Ayade must exercise caution in the choice he finally makes. No doubt, having enjoyed the senate and two-term governorship under the platform of the PDP, the party stands in good stead to continue to benefit him even if the congress results are not in his favour. He should be a good sportsman and learn to win some and lose some. The reason for this advise is that Ayade should not engage in the misstep of defecting from the party that made him, doing so may spell doom. He should rather take a cue from the fate of Senator Godswill Akpabio and not be tempted by the flowery promises of the ruling party and bite the finger that fed him. He should listen to wise counsel and do the right thing. He should be grateful to a party that gave him so much leverage even though he contributed so little.