Relentless Defections and Implications for Democracy

It is true that diversity is the spice of life. That is why life is governed by choices. Individuals choose their ways of life. Societies choose how they are run. So, every country in the world is free to choose the kind of government it wants. The choice of government could be determined by different factors. These could be historical antecedents, socio-cultural nuances, economic conditions, external influences or certain organic values and ideologies.

Whatever mode of government a country chooses to run and however it evolved, the people must live with the consequences of their choice. And wherever possible, if the people are dissatisfied with their system of government, they can effect a change in agreeable ways. In the same manner, if politicians are no longer happy in a political party, they can defect to another. It is their right and choice. After all, politics comes in various shades of ideologies and allegiances, some of which are not necessarily cast in stone.

Today, as a result of diversity principle, there are diverse systems of government in the world. The most famous ones include democracy, communism, socialism, oligarchy, monarchy, aristocracy, theocracy, totalitarianism, and military dictatorship. On its part, democracy is a dominant system of government that allows the people to choose their leaders under fair and free elections, civic participation, human rights protections, and law and order. A notable example of a globally recognized democracy is America. On the other side of the ideological divide is communism, another major system of government which is a centralized one run and led by a single party that is mostly dictatorial in its rule. The most prominent example of a communist country is China, which incidentally is celebrating 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party this year. By and large, other countries of the world operate diverse systems of government that suit their choices.

Closer home, what system of government do we have and run in Nigeria? Of course, democracy, defined by a multi-party system, is the obvious answer. Ours is modeled after the American presidential system. Historically, Nigerias political space was dominated in the first republic by three major parties such as National Council of Nigeria and Cameroons (NCNC) led by Nnamdi Azikwe, Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) led by Ahmadu Bello, and Action Group (AG) as led by Obafemi Awolowo. In the second republic, we had foremost parties like National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Greater Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP), Nigeria Advance Party (NAP) and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), among others. In the third republic, Nigeria was politically agog with the centre-right National Republican Convention (NRC) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP). And in the fourth republic were frontline parties such as Alliance for Democracy (AD), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and others which had morphed into new platforms with time.

At present, Nigeria still prides itself as a democracy with an uninterrupted 22 years of civilian government after intervening years of being under the jackboots of military dictatorship. Since 1999, the country has been ruled at the centre by two major alternating political parties, namely the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). While the PDP ruled from 1999 to 2014, the APC has been ruling from 2015 till date. Interestingly, both parties have, at one time or the other, claimed that they would rule Nigeria forever.

Over time, Nigerians have seen different influential politicians changing political platforms like women changing clothes. Today, some are in the PDP. Tomorrow, they wake up in the APC and vice versa. Others change to less dominant parties like All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and African Democratic Congress (ADC), among others, in order to realize their ambitions. Many perceptive observers of our political space now conclude that the constant defections of Nigerian politicians from one party to the other have less to do with principles and ideologies, and more to do with selfish motives. The difference between the two major political parties has also become so blurred that it is seen as that between six and half a dozen.

However, the defections have continued more aggressively in recent times with the APC drawing more major political actors to its platform from the opposition PDP. After the ruling party won a second term in 2019, there seemed to have emerged a deliberate strategy in the APC to obliterate any form of opposition party in order to hold the levers of power ‘forever’. In fact, that strategy was confirmed by several public statements attributed to different APC stakeholders at different times. For instance, a former Minister of Women Affairs, late Aisha Alhassan, popularly called Mama Taraba, in 2018 boasted that the APC will rule Nigeria forever. In February this year, Yusuf Gagdi, a federal lawmaker from Plateau State, also asserted that the APC will hold power in Nigeria for 100 years. Also, APC chieftain Ashiwaju Bola Tinubu claimed in April this year that the APC can rule beyond 2023. And as the current acting caretaker chairman of the party, Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State further revealed in March 2021 that the APC will rule Nigeria for 32 years. He was widely reported as claiming that the party had started working to achieve the plan. Obviously, a key plank of the plan is to eliminate any form of serious opposition party by causing notable members of the PDP to defect in droves. Since Governor Buni assumed office as APC Caretaker Committee Chairman in June 2020, he has embarked on aggressive orchestration of defections from the PDP to his party. Aside federal lawmakers, major political figures and other persons of interest, PDP state governors such as Dave Umahi of Ebonyi, Ben Ayade of Cross River, and Bello Matawalle of Zamfara, have recently defected to the APC. Still, there are rumours that many more PDP state governors will hop on the defection bandwagon soon.

In whatever way the APC is making the opposition party stalwarts to defect, be it by enticement, coercion, manipulation, blackmail or intimidation, does the ongoing defections saga augur well for Nigerias democracy? That is the big picture that all concerned Nigerians should be questioning. Yes, party politics is a game of numbers, wits and horse trading anywhere in the world. Yes, politicians are free to pitch their tent with any party platform of their choice. Yes, every party is free to poach influential members from others. But are we in the long run strengthening or destroying our democracy by completely weakening or eliminating the opposition via nonstop one-way defections?

With the ongoing rash of defections being instigated and celebrated by the APC, what is especially baffling is that there are no concrete ideological validations or performance indices driving the defecting politicians. It is not as if states being run by PDP governors are faring worse in development than APC states. It is not like the current Federal Government is a PDP-run one under which insecurity, poverty and socio-economic conditions have become nightmarish. In a twist of paradox and curiosity, political actors are defecting to the ruling party today at a time when the government is widely rated to score lowest in nearly all performance indices. This irony makes many observers to believe that the defecting political players are doing so for more selfish reasons of either political survival, exemption from prosecution for corruption or promises of future juicy positions and privileges. In other words, the gale of defections has nothing to do with good governance and selfless public service to Nigerians. It is all about self-seeking politics!

In any way we look at it, the trend is really dangerous and the future outcome portends doom for our democracy. If the relentless APC push for defections from the PDP persists, Nigeria will steadily be edged towards a one-party system of government where all forms of critical opposition are non-existent. Once we get to that stage, where only one party exists and runs our government forever, Nigerians are denied choices, elections become mere selections, and we can no longer claim to be a democracy. We will become a communist/dictatorial country! Yet, democracy is all about choices, freedom, pluralism and competitive politics which help to check the intrusion of totalitarianism.

So, we have a critical choice to make: do we want to continue to exist as a democracy with all its values or we want to change to another system of government with no choices? If we answer yes to democracy, then the current inordinate drive to weaken, decimate or erase the opposition through orchestrated defections needs to be stopped, or at least moderated to a civilized minimum. The alternate eventual reality of Nigeria transitioning to a one-party communist/dictatorial state has to be a consensus among all Nigerians, if we so desire, and not something to be foisted on the country by one partys ambition to rule for 32 years, 100 years or even forever.