Will APC Settle for a National Chairman from the North?

Emameh Gabriel writes on the dynamics and intricacies as the All Progressives Congress is set to hold its congresses which would set in motion a series of activities and events culminating in the party’s national convention, though no specific date has yet been set for the highest organ of the party, the national convention to converge, political actors have no doubt been warming up to replace the caretaker national chairman, Mai Mala Buni

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) recently announced the postponement of the date of its congresses initially scheduled for July 24, August 14 and September 18 respectively for the election of party executives from the ward to the state levels, with the ward congress now holding on July 31th which will ultimately culminate in its much awaited national convention where the national officers of the party who will direct its day to day affairs would be elected.

Despite the high level intrigues and obvious contradictions the congresses cannot be wished away as it is mandated in the party’s constitution for such a time as this and the most coveted position up for grabs is that of the National Chairman. If all goes well, he will be in charge of overseeing most crucially the party’s presidential convention where the party’s candidate for the 2023 general election would be decided. But as analysts have avered, it would be one of the biggest tests for the ruling party in its quest to remain dominant and relevant beyond 2023.

As the ruling party edges closer to its national convention, the controversial zoning principle and formula has re-emerged to dominate the political discourse in its ranks. However, zoning has always been central to political party conventions in Nigeria given the nature of our society, for the APC to thrive and maintain its stability and cohesion it must walk the same path ensuring that a fine and delicate equilibrium among geo – political forces is achieved.

Thus, without second guessing, the pathway to the national convention which is widely expected to be slated for December, with the latest extension of the CECPC mandate, is filled with hurdles which the APC must try to jump and jump well if it is to remain the ruling party for the foreseeable future, which may not be unconnected with the recent initial postponement of the congresses.

A chieftain of the party and member of the 2018 APC National Convention Committee, also member of the Screening Sub Committee of the ruling party, Mr Elton Onwu told THISDAY that there is cause for alerm as leadership of the party at the national level has been able calm the seemingly storm in the party.

“So far, the APC Caretaker/Extra-Ordinary Convention Planning Committee chaired by the Governor of Yobe State, Mai Mala Buni, has done an “A Class Job” of steering the affairs of the party leading up to the congresses. Fences have been mended and still work in progress, more powerful blocks have joined the party and President Muhammadu Buhari has shown uncommon leadership by being father of all.
The forthcoming National Convention will not be devoid of political controversies but we shall overcome and come out stronger together as a political family more ready to continue in government post 2023.”

The party has not always had it easy in times of major decision making as factions and tendencies jostle for pre – dominance throwing up fresh rancour and rubbing old injuries. The imperative of having a new elected national executive members of the party cannot be overstated as the Buni-led Caretaker and Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) that took charge of the party’s affairs after the eventual removal of the Adams Oshiomhole-led National Working Committee (NWC) seems to have overstayed having being initially appointed for a six-month tenure to conclude reconciliation in the party’s ranks and files and organise yet another convention where a new substantive party chairman shall be elected. For now, the committee’s mandate has been extended for the third time, much to the chagrin and suspicion of some stakeholders in the party.

However, it is widely believed that the current arrangement, which some consider ‘illegal’ will not continue beyond the end of the year, so that the party’s next national officers have ample time to prepare for the next presidential election, which they will be going into without the much touted persona of President Buhari.

Without the formal announcement of the date for the national convention, stakeholders and gladiators have already set their machineries in full swing knowing that 2023 is just around the corner and the Buni CECPC would eventually give way to an elected leadership as prescribed in the party’s constitution. Though there have also not been a formal final decision by the party on zoning and micro – zoning formula, maybe out of deeply entrenched sense of the necessity for power rotation coupled with the clamour for Southern presidency, most of those who have indicated interest for the plum job of the chairman of the party so far are all northerners and mostly former governors. They include two erstwhile overnors of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff and Kashim Shettima, as well as former Governor of Gombe state, who is currently a senator representing Gombe central, Danjuma Goje, former Governor of Zamfara state, Abdul – Aziz Yari, former Governor of Bauchi state, Isa Yuguda, and two former governors of Nassarawa state, who are also currently Senators, Tanko Al – Makura and Abdullahi Adamu respectively.

Intrigues in the party in the lead up to the convention are expected to rise especially as ward, local government and state congresses are expected to take place successively over the next one month. Political watchers aver that the non announcement yet of a definite date for the ultimate convention may be a deft move to manage the potential fall – out from the congresses. While the APC despite its procrastination like its successors would eventually adopt a zoning or micro – zoning formula much would have to do with the balance of intrigues within the party which will be especially engendered by the recent re – registration exercise and the outcome of the congresses.

But from the look of things, if the President’s words and body language is anything to go by, the macro and micro zoning formula for the national convention would be determined by the National Executive Committee of the party after intense negotiation and horse trading by power blocs.

While APC congresses have always been a tumultuous affair, they have always managed to go to the eventual convention as one united house, as we saw in the emergence of John Odigie Oyegun and Adams Oshiomhole as party chairmen. Even Bisi Akande as interim national chairman from the Southwest stepped down for John Oyegun who was from the South – South, after the Vice Presidential ticket was zoned to the Southwest. So in both the 2014 and 2018 conventions, consensus candidacy were their hallmark. At no time is it more imperative to replicate such system as now when the fate of the party in the post – Buhari era is gradually and tortuously being drafted.

As it stands today, President Muhammadu Buhari is from the North-west, while Vice President, Yemi Osinbanjo is from the Southwest and Yobe state governor, Mai Mala Buni is currently completing the tenure of the South – South. But since it is the tradition that the President and party chairmanship should oscillate in opposing manner, that is if the presidency is expected to swing to the South, the chairmanship automatically jolts to the north. And the two regions which have contributed enormously to the successes of the APC, since the party’s political ascendancy, have been the North-east and the North-central, who have not shied away from trumpeting their interests. It is this tune that Shettima, Modu Sheriff, Yuguda, Al – Makura, and Senators Abdullahi and Goje have thrown their hats into the ring. Abdul- aziz Yari who is from the same zone with the president is also interested and has been making wide consultations.

Abdul-aziz Yari is arguably one of the most controversial politicians in the ruling party because of the Supreme Court judgement stripping the party of all elected political offices in the state at the 2019 general election in a suit ignited by his quest to impose his hand-picked successor. Though the one time chairman of the Nigerian governors forum still enjoys the respect of his former colleagues, it is clear that his quest is an uphill battle especially with the recent defection of Governor Bello Matawalle to the APC. Political watchers opine that if it is not a mission impossible then it is extraordinary, because as a rule of thumb that no Nigerian governor wants to struggle with a party chairman over the structure of the party in the state, and definitely not with Yari, whose fanatical zeal ruined the APC in Zamfara. Yari has insisted that no one can scheme him out of the race.

According to him, he was not perturbed that some political bigwigs in the North-west including serving and former governors were allegedly trying to edge him out in order to actualise their presidential or vice presidential ambitions in 2023.

Yari said with the political experience he has garnered over the years, he has the capacity to lead the APC to victory in the 2023 general polls.

“If God decides that it should be, it is going to be. People can manoeuvre and do all sorts of calculations but they will not prevail. All I know is this, I have the capacity to lead this party and they know what I can do.

“Some persons can fabricate lies but at the end of the day, the truth will prevail. There are so many other things they have said that are mere tissue of lies meant to try to get a good man down but they will never succeed,” Yari said.

Yari said despite his inability to accomplish all the objectives it set for itself in its progressive manifesto, the APC has abundant chances of winning the 2023 elections in a very remarkable way, if the “right things” are done between now and next year.

Another gladiator who has declared his intention for the plum job is the former governor of Bauchi state, Isa Yuguda. Though he is a shrewd politician, even becoming a one time Minister of Aviation, he seems to have been invisible in the scheming of things under the APC administration. Though he can still pull a string or two, is home state of Bauchi is in the grip of the opposition, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and not being a governor on the platform of the party, it will be difficult for him to secure the goodwill of the Progressives Governors, a major deciding bloc in the party.

Former governor of Borno state, Ali Modu Sheriff is another controversial figure who has declared interest for the highly coveted office. Sheriff was one of the founding members of the APC having led his erstwhile party, the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) through the merger process before subsequently decamping to the PDP on the eve of the 2015 election and rising to become a factional chairman of the PDP before the supreme court decided in favour of Senator Makarfi led caretaker Committee. His defection to the PDP in 2024 and his almost sudden ascendancy to the party chairmanship is a clear prove to the deftness and doggedness of this former Senator from Borno state. He returned to the party he helped founded in 2018. Though Ali Modu Sheriff has not been visible in the media spaces of lately, he is not a man to be easily written off. He has the intellectual dexterity and financial war chest to facilitate his ambition. But it will be a difficult task to get the support of the governor’s forum who are expected to exercise enormous influence as they always have over the convention outcome particularly since his estranged political godson, former governor Kashim Shettima is reportedly also in the race and enjoying the staunch backing of Governor Babaganda Zulum who is in control of the state’s party structure.

Former Governor Kashim Shettima has enjoyed a seamless political journey and good reputation. As governor he was lauded for his extraordinary disposition, which was even enhanced as Senator because of the excellent job his hand picked successor is doing which has gained traction round the country, revealing him as a man of good judgement. Mr Shettima is largely seen as a congenital fellow, that posseses the wit and administrative acumen to lead the APC if given the opportunity. Mr Shettima comes for this position without the baggages of his fellow contenders. If push comes to shove, Shettima could rally the support of both the Progressives Governors and the Senate caucus for his ambition, bearing in mind that he is yet to formally make a declaration.

Tanko Al – Makura is another less controversial figure in the race for the chairmanship of the APC. Mr Al – Makura who is from the CPC legacy party bloc of the APC, is also seen as not a divisive fellow and has the tendency to run a balance party administration if the opportunity arises. He is well known to both the ACN and CPC tendencies of the party. Like Kashim Shettima, he was a former governor and current Senator, and has successfully foisted an hand picked successor on his home state of Nassarawa. Also like Shettima, he enjoys the support of the progressives governors being one of its earliest members, having ascended to power in 2011 on the platform of the CPC. It is also believed that his candidacy may enjoy the backing of the president owing to his CPC roots. Until a formal announcement on a macro or micro zoning formula both Al – Makura and Shettima are top contenders for the position.

Danjuma Goje is another heavy weight who is interested in leading the APC into the 2023 electoral battlefield. The former governor on the platform of the PDP and current Senator representing Gombe central was a leading contender for the Senate Presidency at the inception of the 9th Senate before dropping out at the eleventh hour after meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari for the party’s annointed candidate, Ahmed Lawan. Though after the election he was reported to have said it was the last time he was putting himself up for election and that after 2023 he would quit politics. Though Mr Goje his yet to openly declare his intention as was his style, party sources have revealed that the graduate of Political Science from Ahmadu Bello University iis interest and may even be testing the waters. Goje who is a third term Senator and current the chairman of the Senate appropriation Committee is a highly respected politician on the national political landscape since making his debut as a member of the Bauchi state house of Assembly during the second republic. He was instrumental in the APC dislodging the PDP in Gombe state after 16 years in control.

Analysts opine that that given his experience, the former minister of mines, would be the man to beat if he eventually make public his intention.

Former Governor of Nassarawa Abdullahi Adamu, like one of his successors, Tanko Al-Makura is also eyeing the coveted seat. The third term Senator and veteran politician made his entry into the political scene in 1977 when he was elected to the Constituent Assembly that drafted the constitution of the short- lived Second Republic and was subsequently the first Secretary General of the NPN in Plateau State, later becoming it’s chairman in 1982. At the inception of the Fourth Republic he was founding member of the PDP and later two term governor. The politician who was one time chairman of the governors forum still enjoys respect on the political scene but is also viewed by some as divisive and controversial, more obviously aligned with northern interest. While he enjoys the respect of both former governor Tanko Al-Makura and current Governor Sule, it unlikely that both would support his candidacy particularly with Al – Makura is also in the race. He is a chip of the old block and may not appeal to the progressive governor who would not want a personality that would seem distant and more likely to assert his independence. Moreover, the man has not in anyway ingratiated himself with the important Southwest tendency of the party.

There is a school of thought who posit that the APC chairmanship should not be made an exclusive to former state governors. Therefore, they are pushing the candidature of Mallam Saliu Mustapha from Kwara State and Senator Sani Musa who represents Niger East in the Senate. Mustapha has paid his dues in political party administration, starting the All Peoples Party (APP) in 1999 to the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003.

He was among those that followed President Muhammadu Buhari when they formed the Congress for Progressive Change ((CPC) and to the legacy party, the APC. In all his sojourn in the political terrain, he held various position getting to position of the deputy national chairman of the APC But apart from all his sojourn in the executive cadre of political party administration in Nigeria, spanning more than 20 years. From the Buhari Organisation (TBO) to the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Mustapha who was the deputy national chairman of the CPC has crossed the administrative party organs with his gentle mein. To his credit, the CPC has a foothold in Nasarawa state before merging with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to become the APC. Currently, the CPC bloc in APC is angling to produce the next national chairman. They argue that after both All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) have had their slots, it was their lot to produce the next national chairman. The CPC bloc has to decide who it will support between Mustapha and Al-Makura.

Senator Mohammed Sani Musa has come out boldly to stake his claim for the office of National Chairman of the party, a move he hitherto kept within his circle of close friends and political associates. Now, that it has become clear that the Caretaker committee is close to the end of its assignment, there should be no tip-toeing about his political aspiration.

Senator Musa, the serving senator representing Niger East Senatorial District parades excellent professional and educational credentials. He believes he is the right man for the job. Exhibiting an unblemished record in his distinguished career both in the public and private service, since 1986, Senator Musa is a passionate ICT oriented person. To his credit, he developed and promoted Electronic Voting for the first time in Nigeria. This manifested in the introduction of Card Reader and Permanent Voters Card (PVC), the revolutionary steps is the instrumental to the transformation of political party election in Nigeria by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2015 and 2019.

“I am a person with proven integrity,” said the Senator basking in the glory of the game changing experience that his innovative electronic devices brought to election in Nigeria. “My experience in private and public sectors, the capacity required to manage diverse people and interests irrespective of tribe, religion and region is already imbibed by me. I am a mobilizer, a bridge builder and a strategist that is passionate about wholesome development of the nation. I possess a strong interpersonal skill by demonstrating the utmost discretion and integrity in all of my dealings.”

In 2015, Musa went through a trying period for which he believes he will yet be recommended for National Honour. He narrated the incident. “My integrity was brought to test in 2015 when I was arrested and detained and later induced with financial and material gift to compromise the 2015 general election by revealing the confidential information on the Card Reader, but for my believe and stand for the nation, I refused to compromise and the success of the 2015 general election was celebrated across the globe. My zeal and determination is always to get the best for Nigeria and Nigerians.”

With the congresses now shifted to begin on July 31, it is apparent that the current leadership is holding its cards close to its chest in order to maintain the party’s fragile unity.

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Though there have also not been a formal final decision by the party on zoning and micro – zoning formula, maybe out of deeply entrenched sense of the necessity for power rotation coupled with the clamour for Southern presidency, most of those who have indicated interest for the plum job of the chairman of the party so far are all northerners and mostly former governors. They include two erstwhile overnors of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff and Kashim Shettima, as well as former Governor of Gombe state, who is currently a senator representing Gombe central, Danjuma Goje, former Governor of Zamfara state, Abdul – Aziz Yari, former Governor of Bauchi state, Isa Yuguda, and two former governors of Nassarawa state, who are also currently Senators, Tanko Al – Makura and Abdullahi Adamu respectively