Nigerian Mathematician Develops Innovative Model to Combat Influenza
A Nigerian mathematician and public health researcher, Omotomilola Jegede, is making significant strides in public health research with her groundbreaking study titled “Modeling the Stochastic Dynamics of Influenza Epidemics with Vaccination Control, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Model Parameters.” featured in the book “Mathematical Modelling in Health, Social, and Applied Sciences”, published by Springer Nature. This research introduces an innovative approach to predicting and mitigating influenza outbreaks by employing a stochastic model.
Omotomilola Jegede’s research simulates the spread of influenza under various population conditions, including density, environment, and access to healthcare. This innovative approach, coupled with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) techniques, empowers policymakers and healthcare professionals with valuable data to target vaccination efforts effectively and minimize infection rates.
“In Nigeria and across West Africa, where healthcare resources are constrained, leveraging data-driven tools like this model can significantly enhance our ability to address the burden of infectious diseases,” explained Omotomilola Jegede. “By increasing the accuracy of predictions, incorporating uncertainty, and providing a deeper understanding of disease dynamics, this model facilitates data-driven decision-making. It enables public health authorities to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions by simulating various scenarios, forecasting resource needs, and tailoring responses to the unique challenges of high-density urban areas and underserved rural communities. By analyzing complex disease patterns and accounting for population variability, this approach offers an effective tool for research capacity building and policy support to mitigate infectious disease burdens.”
Building on this perspective she added, “My goal is to empower public health systems in Nigeria and Africa with innovative tools that provide actionable insights for managing infectious diseases. This includes developing robust frameworks for forecasting resources, evaluating interventions, and improving health outcomes through evidence-based strategies. By harnessing statistical methods to analyze intricate disease dynamics, my work aims to strengthen research capacity and support policy development, ensuring that vulnerable populations especially those in densely populated urban centers and under-resourced rural areas are better protected against the impacts of infectious diseases.”
Jegede’s research holds profound implications for strengthening Nigeria’s public health infrastructure. By incorporating critical local variables such as climatic patterns, population mobility, and disparities in healthcare access, her model provides a nuanced framework tailored to the country’s unique epidemiological and socio-environmental challenges. This approach not only enhances the precision of disease forecasts but also facilitates targeted interventions, enabling policymakers to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of infectious diseases more effectively. By addressing the interplay between climate variability, population dynamics, and resource limitations, her work equips public health authorities with actionable insights to optimize resource allocation and protect vulnerable populations across Nigeria.
Dr. Augustine Agho, Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs at Old Dominion University, lauded Ms. Omotomilola Jegede’s exceptional academic ability, professionalism, leadership, and commitment to excellence, describing her as being in the top 1% of graduate students he has mentored in the last twenty years. He stated, “My overall assessment is that she has the academic ability and self-discipline to excel in her doctoral studies and become a distinguished leader in her chosen profession.” Highlighting the impact of her work, he further noted, “Omotomilola Jegede’s research exemplifies the power of interdisciplinary collaboration, offering Nigeria a unique opportunity to strengthen its influenza and malaria preparedness while contributing to global efforts in epidemic management. Her work extends beyond Nigeria, holding significant relevance for West Africa and Africa as a whole.”
As global health challenges grow increasingly complex, Jegede’s research highlights the critical importance of developing context-specific solutions to address pressing public health issues. By harnessing advanced mathematical modeling techniques and data-driven insights, her work provides a robust framework for strengthening Nigeria’s capacity to predict, mitigate, and manage infectious disease outbreaks. This approach not only supports evidence-based policymaking but also fosters resilience in the nation’s healthcare system, safeguarding the health and well-being of its population amid evolving epidemiological and environmental challenges.
