What Next For the PDP?

As the race for 2023 general election begins in earnest, Segun James looks at the interests and the journey within the Peoples Democratic Party

This is the time of the political cycle when politicians get top billing. After all, the political season is here and it is the make-or-break period for ambitious politicians.

Since the general election that brought President Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC) to power in 2015, the tide of political waves has not lifted for the PDP, hence the tension and crisis in the party. But barely a few weeks to the national convention of the party, the way forward is not clear for the party.

Until a few weeks ago, it was taken for granted that the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would be zoned to the south, particularly to the South-east whose people have been most loyal to the party since the return to democracy in 1999. But not any more! If all signals coming from the party is anything to go by, the ticket may be ceded to the north. If this was disappointing to the people of South-east region, this cannot be be seen in the open as the reaction from the region has been largely indifferent.

The reason being advanced by the proponents of the northern move is that, of the 16 years that the party held power, the north only had two years in the saddle. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was there for eight years and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan for six years. They insisted that with just two years of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in the saddle, it is only fair that the north be given the chance to take the next shot.

If this move is accepted by the party’s caucus, that effectively excludes aspirants from the South-east and South-south like Governors Udom Emmanuel, Akwa Ibom State; Nyesom Wike, Rivers State; Okezie Ikpeazu, Abia State; Ifeanyi Okowa, Delta State and ex-Gov Peter Obi the last vice presidential candidate of the party; from the contest.

By all account, October will be an edgy month for the PDP. For it is the month the party will be running what is being described as the biggest exercise in the party since 2018 presidential run – the National Convention. The month will hold what is expected to be the biggest exercise before the nomination of its presidential candidate in 2022. Who becomes the next national chairman of the party? A critical position in the race to determine who becomes the next presidential candidate in the attempt to wrest power from the APC. The build up is interesting.

As the race towards 2023 hots up, the battle for the PDP chairmanship is being fought for by southern aspirants, this gives the impression that they may have conceded the presidency to the north as it is being speculated. So far, only aspirants from the South-west and the South-south region are said to have indicated interest in the race. This may be an indicator that the party’s vice presidential ticket may once again be seed to the southeast, hence no one from the zone is contesting the chairmanship.

If 2015 and 2019 were PDP dry seasons with prolonged famine, 2023 may end up becoming the party’s raining season of triumph. The clearest sign yet of the recovery of new vitality in the party is the strong indication coming with the lackluster performance of the APC.

Against a backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction and political volatility in the party in his three years leadership of the party, Prince Uche Secondus is still insisting that he remains the leader and chairman of the PDP. He insists that only the national convention of the party can remove him.

The PDP has a second chance to reinvent itself and go for the kill in the 2023 general election. But the key to this is who ever becomes the party’s chairman first; and later, the presidential candidate.

Party leaders believe if PDP wants to win, first, it must let go Secondus and secondly, its presidential ticket must go to the North. In their calculation, that will give it an advantage over the APC, the way it did for APC in 2015. So, going by this arrangement, the PDP may go to the North in the search for the Presidential flagbearer.

In Nigeria, when a man wishes to run for the office of president, he never announces the fact to voters or chose an issue on which to take a stand. Instead, he lets a group of political friends into his desire or as it is known, “exploring and consulting” on the possibility of announcing his bid.

In a country filled with both ambition and frustration, the race for the presidentual ticket of the PDP has begun in earnest. The list of prominent frontrunners, for now, include.

Atiku Abubakar

The most striking thing about former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s leadership of the PDP is the one that his supporters never make. He will always abandon the party until the next election circle. In his renewed quest for the presidential ticket of the party, Atiku who is alleged to be a serial candidate is back again. Now this is the albatross that he has to carry as the race for the 2023 presidential ticket of the PDP hots up.

To many people, Atiku’s penchant for jumping from one party to the other when he finds that his ambition may not easily be realized has been a character flaw that has not endeared him to many people. The fear is that this may once again play out if he does not get the PDP ticket.

Another bad label pinned on him by his former boss, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is the toga of a corrupt public officer. This continues to plague him despite Obasanjo saying that he has forgiven Atiku.

But is Atiku corrupt? The answer depends on who you ask. Despite the allegations, Atiku has never been convicted of any crime. So, under the law he remains innocent until proven guilty.

Bukola Saraki

Dr. Saraki, the immediate past President of the Senate and former Governor of Kwara state is a known political warrior and fighter. He comes from the North-central state of Kwara, the part of the north which is yet to produce a presidential or vice presidential candidate since the coming of the Fourth Republic. The greatest thing going for him is that he is a good political tactician and warrior. He led the revolt in the PDP in 2013 and upon his return, he has been the head of the party’s re-engineering effort to get back to power.

The calculation within the PDP caucus is that since the the APC is most likely to seed its presidential ticket to the South, a candidate from the Middle-belt which serves as a bridge between the north and the south will be a sure bet to win the presidency for the PDP.

Besides, Saraki has been the unofficial leader of the party as he reconciles factions and aggrieved interest in the last couple of years.

He was governor from 2003 to 2011 after which he was elected to the senate under the banner of the PDP. But following the the crisis in the PDP, he led the entire party members and the government of the Kwara State to join the APC. When the leadership of the Senate was to be constituted, he, in a most tactical move outfoxed his opponents to emerge the President of the Senate. The move did not earn him friends in his party, but he was able to rally the opposition PDP to his side to emerge the President of the Senate. Such moves has earned him great respect from friends and foes alike.

Aminu Tambuwal

Tambuwal, the Governor of Sokoto State and former Speaker of the House of Representatives is another aspirant who, along with Saraki has considerable followership in the PDP. Since 2019, he has never hidden his ambition to contest the presidency. He is said to be highly competent and a bridge-builder.

Tambuwal like Saraki was among the governors and legislators who defected from the PDP to the APC during the political crisis that rocked the PDP in 2013. He contested the governorship in 2015, and was elected Governor Sokoto State.

In 2018, he once again defected from the APC back to the PDP. And against all odds, he won reelection in 2019

Bala Mohammed

The Bauchi State Governor is a recent entrant in the race for the party’s ticket. He has been having a running battle with his fellow governors especially from the south where the party’s support base is strongest. So, his biggest albatross is that his brother governors may not support his condidature. Many in the party believe he should go for a second term and work to re-enforce the party in his state and the entire North-east zone.

Mohammed was a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and Senator representing Bauchi before being elected Governor.

Issues Before the PDP

By many measures, the Nigerian economy is unhealthy. Unemployment is at an all time high, growth is running at less than one percent and the population index shows an uncontrollable height. Many Nigerians are worse off than in 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari took over; and the laborious recovery engineered by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo from financial meltdown has burnt out in the last few years of the APC leadership.

Inflation and interest rates remain at a historic high level with wages plummeting, this is the momentum that the PDP intends to ride on in order to take over and launch itself back to glory. The coming year is certainly going to be challenging for the economy.

Economic setbacks stemming from mismanagement will prompt voters to take a closer look at the quality of candidates they vote for.

But who among the aspirants has what it takes to take the PDP back to power?

QUOTE

If 2015 and 2019 were PDP dry seasons with prolonged famine, 2023 may end up becoming the party’s raining season of triumph. The clearest sign yet of the recovery of new vitality in the party is the strong indication coming with the lackluster performance of the APC