Now that Tinubu Is Back

Vanessa Obioha suggests that the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress who returned to Nigeria from a three-month sick leave in London may be pressurised to declare his interest in the 2023 presidential race publicly

The return of the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu last Friday will amplify the campaign for his presidency. Although the political stalwart is yet to publicly declare his intention to join the 2023 presidential race, his supporters have already gone ahead of him to prepare his way like the Biblical prophet John the Baptist, who preceeded Jesus Christ.

One of the leading notable groups that took the responsibility to rally for support for Tinubu’s presidency is South-West Agenda 2023 (SWAGA ‘23). Headed by Senator Adedayo Adeyeye, the group made up of politicians started their campaign vigorously and has established a presence in most South-western states like Ondo, Osun and Ogun.

Interestingly, one day before the arrival of Tinubu into the country, Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu showed public support for the group. At the occasion, Sanwo-Olu announced that the group was being formally launched in the state and openly backed the group’s push to have Tinubu as the right candidate for the 2023 presidential election.

“The SWAGA we are launching in Lagos today is a demonstration of Tinubu’s enduring political principles and strong vision…those behind the movement took the three values and pushed them with passion. What we are witnessing today is the action from the vision and passion; this is what SWAGA represents.

“By the grace of God, we will drive this agenda to a logical end and we will all witness the inauguration of our political icon come 2023,” said Sanwo-Olu.

Another group which is aimed at garnering support for Tinubu for his 2023 presidency is Nigeria Diaspora for Aṣíwájú (NDA). The group, jubilant over the successful return of Tinubu to the country after a three-month stay in London where he underwent knee surgery, expressed confidence that the politician is the right man to take the reins from President Muhammadu Buhari.

The support for Tinubu’s 2020 candidacy is not limited to the South-west. In the north, both youths and political leaders are backing the politician. Northern political leaders in the National House of Assembly were among those who paid a visit to him in London. They included the Majority Leader, Alhassan Ado-Doguwa; Chairman, House Committee on Rules and Business, Abubakar Fulata; and Chairman, House Committee on the Army, Abdulrazak Namdas.

According to reports, a lawmaker who spoke under anonymity said that the North House of Representatives caucus is endorsing Tinubu because he is aspiring.

One of the viral videos from that visit showed a lawmaker representing Guevara/Suleja/Tafa Federal Constituency in Niger State, Lado Suleja, calling Tinubu “Mr President.”

It was widely speculated that the number of politicians who thronged London to visit the former governor of Lagos State did so to secure his blessings should he emerge as the next president of Nigeria. Some of the leaders who visited Tinubu included President Buhari, Speaker, House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila; Governors Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Rotimi Akeredolu (Ondo), and Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti).

Tinubu’s credibility, as advertised by the different groups, can be linked to his political shrewdness. It is no secret that he was instrumental to the emergence of Buhari as the fourth democratic president in the new dispensation. Having merged the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) party with Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and other parties, delivered the presidential seat to Buhari.

In the South-west, Tinubu’s political power is not in doubt, but, it is at the same time, challenged. In Lagos State, for instance, where his influence is overwhelming, a group known as Lagos4Lagos is challenging his authority in the affairs of the state. The group, led by Olajide Adediran is poised to wrestle Lagos state from Tinubu’s grasp by allowing the people to choose their rightful leader.

Tinubu’s emergence as APC 2023 presidential candidate however will be hinged on the party’s decision on zoning. In the past couple of months, agitations have been rife on which region should produce the next president. While the north desires to retain the number one position in the country, the south is vehemently kicking against it. Their rejection was visibly seen when the Southern Governors Forum unitedly proclaimed that the next president should be from the south in their meeting last July in Lagos.

“The Forum reiterates its commitment to the politics of equity, fairness and unanimously agrees that the presidency of Nigeria be rotated between Southern and Northern Nigeria and resolved that the next president of Nigeria should emerge from the Southern Region,” said Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu at the end of the meeting.

Should the ruling party decide to keep the presidency in the northern region, then the question would become what will beTinubu’s fate? Will he set up another party to pursue his political ambitions or join the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) who a few believe may likely present a candidate from the south for the 2023 presidency!

Tinubu may be the name on many lips but it doesn’t rule out the other candidates from the south eyeing the presidential seat. A formidable name that has sprung up is the incumbent Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo.

Like Tinubu, Osinbajo has not made any public pronouncement about running for the presidency in 2023, yet his foot soldiers have been rallying support for him in different parts of the country. Last May, a flurry of campaign promotional for the VP flooded the internet and was repeated in August, such that the VP’s office released a statement debunking the campaign.

“There has again been a flurry of activities, such as the release of campaign-style promotional videos, banners in the social media and even the deployment of political posters in some parts of the country, including the FCT and Kano, insinuating that the vice president, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, SAN, has joined the 2023 presidential race.

“The office of the Vice President wishes to reiterate a statement on the same subject, made earlier in May this year. The office of the vice president is not in any way connected with the distribution and deployment of any 2023 political posters whether on the streets or in online videos, banners and the like on social media. All these are simply needless distractions from the urgent tasks of governance needed in our country at this time.”

Osinbajo may not have the political clout or influence that Tinubu has but his professionalism is indubitable. The professor showed his knowledge of economics and politics during the first term of the present administration. Though his hue is not as luminous as it was before, it is believed that if given the reins, he will shine brightly.

If the VP should end up declaring his interest in the presidency, and Tinubu, unveiling similar ambition, a clash will be imminent. One of the theories bandied around with the Buhari and Osinbajo ticket was that the Asiwaju intended to secure the seat for a South-western through Osinbajo. It remains to be seen if Tinubu — should such a situation arise — will go home with his tail between his legs.

Another contender from the South-west is the governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi. Like others, he has not publicly declared his political intention after his governorship tenure ends but again, it is believed that he has his sights on the presidency.

But if Tinubu finally declares his presidential ambition and somehow clinches the ticket of the ruling party, he will have to choose an Igbo VP to placate the ethnic group which falls under the south. A likely candidate may be Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State. It is widely speculated by critics that Umahi’s defection to APC was to have a shot at the presidency. The possibility of him being the party’s flag bearer in the upcoming election is slimmer than that of a needle.

One thing is clear though, now that Tinubu is back, the call for him to join the presidential race will be louder and likely to cause a bleeding to the ears of opposition leaders.