Zoning and a Nation in Troubling Times

As the Peoples Democratic Party heads to its national convention next week to elect a new National Working Committee, the ghost of zoning appears to be hunting the party, as conversation on its 2023 presidential candidate takes a new turn. Paul Obi examines the different contours of the debate.

Politics, even within the restrictive Greek–Athenian democracy, was somehow participatory, with structures and reward systems. Proponents and opponents of Athenian democracy – as Pericles would prove, often centred their arguments on the openness of the system, and even the lack of it. As 2023 general election approaches, Nigeria is trapped in the highest statehood crisis unimaginable before. Since 2015, the toga of fear and trepidation has continued to encircle Nigeria. Lost in the very essence of democracy and governance, public outcry for redemption has peaked as the nation confronts its troubles. Beyond optimism, many Nigerians are cynical that 2023 elections would nosedive into a ditch, amid the topsy-turvy over the zoning of the presidential ticket within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The phobia is to avoid a repeat of 2015.

Some are quick to trace Nigeria’s present nadir to 2015 presidential election and the Buhari’s orchestra that catapulted itself to the presidency. Many citizens still believe that that victory was helped by what Dr. Reuben Abati called ethno-religious myopism.

To some, the All Progressives Congress (APC) serenaded Nigeria with persuasive lips and the Aeschylean honey words – oiled by Lagos spin doctors.

Not left out were media and intellectual mercenaries, merchants of lies and half-truths, electoral mobocrats who spearheaded the Buhari’s orchestra to the oval office. The result: The country has now snowballed into what many called a classical dragon spitting venom from all corners vis-à-vis the beckoning of a national apocalypse.

Analysts are of the view that the PDP offers a better hope. They maintained that when the founders of the PDP – G34 and the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) first met, they had an inkling of a Nigeria that caters for all its federating units and geopolitical aspirations. From Dr. Alex Ekwueme, Lawal Kaita, Chief Solomon Lar, Abubakar Rimi, Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, Chief Barnabas Gemade, Obong Victor Attah, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, Ambassador Aminu Wali, Prof. Jubril Aminu, Senator Walid Jubril, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Dr. Garba Nadama, Prof. Iya Abubakar, Yahaya Kwande, Prof. Jerry Gana, Bello Kirfi, Bamanga Tukur, Jim Nwobodo, Tom Ikimi, Dr Olusola Saraki and Ahmadu Ali, they envisioned a party that will unify a diverse nation and keep afar tribal warlords and ethnic dominance from state affairs. The solution then was to streamline zoning of political offices.

The PDP astutely managed the ethnic diversity until 2011, when it was constitutionally abridged as a result of the death of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and the ascension of then President Goodluck Jonathan.

Between 2011 and 2015, the party woefully lost its foundational traction, collapsing at the 2015 presidential polls. As the quintessential poet, Odia Ofeimum aptly captured it in his cerebral article ‘Whither Nigeria?’ delivered at the Chief Obafemi Awolowo Lectures, “In President Jonathan’s time, it was his party that abandoned their president in search of regional solidarity; in the case of President Muhammadu Buhari, he was the one that abandoned his party in pursuit of an ethnic and personalist agenda.”

Again, ethnic sentiments have resurfaced with a bang notwithstanding the emergence of Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as consensus candidate for National Chairman.

Substantially, instability took hold of the party, until the intervention of some critical stakeholders came to PDP’s rescue.

With the emergence of Prince Uche Secondus National Working Committee (NWC), stability stepped in, after years of self-inflicted turbulence. Frankly, Secondus’ leadership repositioned the PDP close to its former stead. As the party heads to a National Convention next week, there are signposts that a new launchpad to Aso Rock is now afoot.

According to a former Minister of Aviation, Mr. Osita Chidoka, if PDP intends to relaunch itself back to power, it must first embrace what he called, “the next phase,” propelled by “young people and interest groups to mobilise around ideas or personalities, to change the power dynamics within the party.” Chidoka argued vehemently that “the change in dynamics will enable politics of ideas and conviction leading to real renewal of governance.” More so, youths, market women and the have-nots must be brought to the fold of the party to avoid defeat in 2023.

Observers explained that a third time defeat will surely send the party to a ghoulish grave. They maintained that as presently constituted, several organs of the party are still obscured and drenched by the old politics of 1999. A broader structure should therefore be the hallmark. The e-registration plans headed by Governor Godwin Obaseki is strategic, if only the exercise is inclusive and goes beyond the peripheral.

Yet, the greatest threat to PDP’s success ahead of the 2023 presidential election remains the zoning debacle. Speaking at the last PDP NEC meeting in Abuja, former Vice President and frontline contestant for the plump office, Atiku Abubakar, explained that “the PDP has the right to determine its rules on how its party should be governed. The people of Nigeria also have the right to determine who governs them,” adding: “Where the president comes from has never been the problem of Nigeria neither will it be the solution. There is no such thing as the president from Southern Nigeria or president from Northern Nigeria. There is only one president from Nigeria, by Nigeria and for Nigeria.”

Likewise, former Governor of Adamawa State, Mr. Boni Haruna, another Atiku’s protégée fired another salvo, arguing that, “as an opposition party, we don’t have the luxury of being rigid on the zoning of the presidency,” stressing that, “the goal of a party is to win power. That is why leaving the presidency open to all has become necessary and compelling.”

Also, Founder of DAAR Communications and PDP chieftain, Chief Raymond Dokpesi, argued that PDP should zone its presidential ticket to the North and desist from copycatting APC. Conversely, the Igbo socio-cultural group of South-east geopolitical and part of South-south, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, quickly reprimanded Dokpesi over what it called ‘mundane distraction and psychological ambivalence in the Dokpesi persona.’

Others are also reflecting on Atiku’s position back in 2011, when he insisted on zoning, and later became the party’s 2019 presidential flagbearer.

Despite such arguments, there are many PDP stalwarts who believe that the zoning of the PDP ticket to the south is necessary. More disturbing for PDP members from the South is the fact that the Southern Governors’ Forum (SGF) and the National Assembly Caucus from the south have also stated their resolve that the presidency should return to the south after Buhari’s eight years in office.

Most of the PDP southern bigwigs are skeptical of the political repercussions should they support the party to zone the presidency to the North. A gamble, PDP members from the south are confronted with. With former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi; Rivers State Governor, Mr. Nyesom Wike; ex-Senate President, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and Delta State Governor, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa as possible presidential hopefuls, it remains a dicey situation for the Southern PDP wing.

But in a deft move to pacify the raging debate on both sides, Governor of Sokoto State and Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Aminu Tambuwal, posited that nobody has the monopoly of leadership, stressing that, “the leadership of the country is mutually complementary as Nigeria belongs to every Nigerian.”

Tambuwal, himself a presidential candidate, observed that “the kind of leadership the country needs is one that will understand the issues of diversities and is inclusive in its approach to governance, without tribal or religious sentiments.”

Also, a PDP chieftain and former Director with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Chief Jonathan Akuns, stressed that the party needs to tread carefully on the issue of zoning in order not to alienate any of the two regions of North and South.

Akuns explained that though, “elite consensus is crystal clear about zoning presidency to the south, there is a compelling need to strip the governance position of power from the APC.”

Sadly, while PDP is bickering over zoning, APC is already strategising with Red Media to sell 2015-like campaigns to youths on social media ahead of 2023 polls.

Critically, a 21st century party chairman and presidential candidate should never be a bigot and jingoist unfamiliar with today’s modernity in the age of big data. He or she should be a Pan-Nigerian with all the requisite capabilities.

Therefore, will the new NWC, Jubril, acting National Chairman, Chief Yemi Akinwunmi, Tambuwal and PDP stand on the side of history? Would they pull Nigeria from the brink of collapse and dangerous cliff? Also, would the party continue to be structured only for the pecks of the elite, Champagne and yacht-swilling Lagos and Abuja plutocrats to the exclusion of the poor and the have-nots? The PDP needs to understand the complexities, the urgency of action and the dire consequences of inaction around the 2023 polls. The goal is to avoid an unhealthy mix of pain from the present carnage. It begins with a rancour-free national convention, a sincere conversation on zoning, competence and electoral viability of the potential presidential candidate. Otherwise, the party and Africa’s most populous nation would barrel themselves to a hazardous ruin and tragedy.

PDP should not vanquish with a puff of smoke at the convention due to zoning and ego-tripping. Therefore, can PDP’s gravitas navigate Nigeria away from troubling times? 2023 is of great essence.