SUDAN AND THE HARVEST OF MILITARY COUPS

The coups bode ill for the democratisation process in Africa

Sudan’s history since independence in 1956 has been that of spells of democratic rule punctuated by coups and military autocracies that were also interrupted by fickle revolutions. Last Monday’s coup is precisely along this pattern. Following sustained popular protests in major cities especially the capital, Khartoum, Jihadist despot, Omar al-Bashir was toppled two years ago. Sensing the increasing popularity of that revolution, the military clamped down on protesters with the attendant loss of many lives. Under the guise of wanting to restore order, the military staged a coup to neutralise the revolt of the masses.

After weeks of a dangerous war of nerves between the military and the civil society, a political compromise was reached. A transitional power sharing government was formed consisting of civilian ministers under a Prime Minister, Hamdalla Hamdok, and top army generals led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan as Chairman of the Sovereign Council. The mandate of the council was limited to chaperoning a transition back to civilian democracy in a process that was meant to end in 2023 with elections beginning in 2022.

While it lasted, there were fears that the more prominent military officers in the power sharing arrangement were perennially distrustful of their civilian counterparts. They feared that in the event of a slip in their hold on power, they too could go the way of al-Bashir with the prospects of being handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for trial for sundry human rights abuses. It was therefore a matter of time before the military half of the Sovereign Council ousted the civilians. That is exactly what the latest coup is all about.

Although the military usurpers have insisted that they remain committed to a transition to civil democracy by 2023, doubts abound that Sudan may have entered a new season of the familiar turnstile tradition of military coups. Meanwhile, the street protests that greeted the coup are continuing despite the brutal military clampdown. How such heavy-handed authoritarianism can be expected to lead to a return to democracy remains a matter of wild speculation.

The international response to the new situation in Sudan has been predictable. The African Union (AU) has suspended Sudan. The World Bank has frozen draw-down on approved aid just as the United States and the European Union have held back on assistance to Sudan. It remains uncertain what position China and Russia will take but it is expected to be contrary to what the West has done or said. For the rest of Africa, the fear is becoming increasingly palpable that the coup culture which ravaged the continent from the1960s to the 1980s is fast creeping back. Mali has witnessed two coups in less than five years. One each has occurred in Chad and Guinea. Attempts in Niger Republic failed.

A combination of jihadism, increasing poverty and hunger plus climate change have been blamed for the discontentment that has bred most of these coups on the continent. There is also a growing resistance to cynical attempts by elected presidents to elongate their terms through dubious constitutional amendments.

Sadly, the universal condemnation of coups has been tempered by the reluctance of powerful states to sanction the generals who stage them. In the specific instance of the Sudan, there is a fear that the instability in the country could fuel wider military face-off between the country and its neighbors. Its relations with Ethiopia remain charged as troop presence along the border has been escalated in recent weeks.

Overall, these power grabs bode ill for the democratisation process in Africa in the past two decades and a minus for economic development on the continent. It is therefore expected that the opposition of the AU to this new development on the continent would be more spirited and stouter. We also urge the United Nations to adopt a more pointed attitude of opposition to the new coup culture before it overruns the modest progress of democracy in the great majority of African countries.