COP26: Racing Against Time!

Emmanuel Addeh writes that as nations of the world converge on Glasgow, United Kingdom, to discuss the future of the planet, a lot is at stake.

From last Sunday, world leaders began to troop into Glasgow to find solutions to the damage inflicted by the impact of carbon emissions on the atmosphere.

The conference, an annual meeting to discuss how to tackle climate change, first took place in 1994, but with the very popular Paris Agreement made at COP21 where 196 countries agreed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels.

In basic terms, pre-industrial levels means the state of the earth before the industrial revolution, which led to the birth of factories and mechanisation, starting in Britain in the mid-1700s.

At the COP26, the 26th in the series, nations will review the progress made and share their plans for cutting emissions as they make commitments in a race against time, to rescue the earth from being consumed by man’s indiscretion.
COP stands for Conference of Parties and is a meeting of all the countries that are signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into force in 1994.

Experts say that some impacts of climate change are already upon the world in the form of extreme weather events, but how to protect and restore ecosystems, build defences, put warning systems in place and make infrastructure and agriculture more resilient to avoid loss of homes, livelihoods and lives would be the focus of the two-week meeting.
But there is a big gap between commitment and action. Many nations, including Nigeria, have made pledges to the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2030, however the problem is that beyond the paperwork , there’s little to show for it.
Representatives from more than 190 countries including world leaders and tens of thousands of negotiators are expected to attend, along with observer organisations, while 30,000 experts and decision-makers will take part in panels, discussions and events.

This year’s edition could is even more defining as COVID-19 has refocused priorities and caused individuals and governments alike to pay closer attention to the environment, with many countries looking to rebuild their economies on ‘building back better’ through a green recovery.

Secondly, COP26 is being viewed as the successor to COP21 where the Paris Accord was signed and to address what has and hasn’t been achieved since 2015.

Humanity’s last chance?

Many experts on the environment have described COP26 as humanity’s last chance against climate change. Indeed, it has been said that actual actions do not even come close to achieving the target of limiting global warming to at least below 2 degrees Celsius.

At the 2015 Paris Climate deal, nations were given the freehand to embark on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), which have been deemed to have been inadequate for the achieving the ambitious goal set thereafter.

The deal marked the first time that countries agreed to limit global warming by entering into a legally binding international treaty on climate change and was ratified by 197 parties.

The Paris Agreement also mandated that wealthier countries would extend finance and knowhow to help poor, vulnerable countries tackle climate change as they race towards ‘Net Zero’ emissions, a situation where the amount of greenhouse gasses produced is the same as the amount that is removed from the atmosphere.

COP26 will further give world leaders the opportunity to embark on the five-yearly review of the NDCs submitted by the countries in 2015, although a UN report published earlier this week found updated NDCs put the world on track for a dangerous global temperature rise of at least 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century-even if plans were fully met.

Fossil fuels as the big elephant

So, when people talk about cutting greenhouse gases, they are essentially talking about reducing consumption of hydrocarbons, which many countries still depend upon to power their economies.

According to the organisers, the key element of the summit’s agenda involves getting countries to “come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets (NDCs) that align with reaching net zero by the middle of the century”.
To that end, it says, they “will need to accelerate the phase-out of coal, encourage investment in renewables, curtail deforestation and speed up the switch to electric vehicles”.

But the issues are not so straightforward. Many countries are still at different levels of development. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. The anger against the big fossil fuel companies also seem unjustified.

While they played a large part in creating the climate crisis, they also helped build economies and boosted industrialisation.

In fact, the disdain is so palpable this year that unlike at previous climate summits, the organisers of COP26 in Glasgow didn’t give fossil fuel companies a formal role in the talks, a move that climate activists have interpreted as a reprimand for the companies’ lack of clear action to end their planet-warming emissions.

But the oil industry will continue to wield huge influence as far as the world needs to be powered, as scientists believe burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, remain the chief driver of the climate emergency.
Coal, however, is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel in terms of emissions and therefore the most important target for replacement in the pivot to renewable alternatives.

Today, China remains the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, but has pledged to peak emissions before 2030, reduce carbon intensity by 65 per cent below 2005 levels, increase installed capacity of wind and solar energy by 1,200 GW, and increase forest stock by 6 million cubic meters.

India, the third-largest emitter, has also made three promises: To reduce emissions intensity economy-wide by 33 to 35 per cent below 2005 levels, to generate 40 per cent of electricity from renewable energy sources, and to create a carbon sink capable of absorbing 2.5 to 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Contentious areas

Major areas of contention will include climate finance and net zero emissions targets. Eleven years ago, at the 15th COP, it was decided that developed countries would deliver $100 billion to developing countries by 2020 to help manage climate mitigation and adaptation since lower-income countries will likely face the brunt of climate change.

However, developed countries have so far failed to live up to their promises, and are unlikely to cough out the sum of $100 billion before 2023-three years after the original deadline. It is on record that by 2019, developed countries had managed to provide and mobilise just $79 billion.

According to the UNFCCC’s financial standing committee, this amount is insufficient and the developing countries would actually need between $5.8 trillion to $5.9 trillion every year till 2030 to achieve less than half of their climate goals under the Paris Agreement.

The $100 billion also doesn’t include finance for loss and damage due to climate change, which developing countries argue should be footed by high-income countries who are responsible for a bulk of emissions causing climate change today.

A second area of disagreement would be about net zero emissions targets, whereby the same amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted due to human activity is removed from the atmosphere.

Although both China and the US have committed to net zero targets by 2060 and 2050, respectively, other countries like India have contended that since they haven’t contributed to historical emissions, the responsibility of making deep cuts shouldn’t lie with them.

While the US remains the biggest historical emitter, accounting for 20 per cent of global emissions today, China began emitting heavily during the turn of the century, leading it to be the source of 11 per cent of global emissions today, while India, meanwhile, accounts for just 3.4 per cent of the global emissions.

Nigeria’s emissions footprint

The whole of Africa contributes a paltry 3.8 per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon Brief, which tracks countries’ activities as they relate to global warming, however recorded that in Africa, Nigeria only comes behind South Africa. Nigeria’s economy is closely tied to oil and gas exports. Profits from petroleum exports currently account for 86 per cent of Nigeria’s total export revenue.

But the irony is that Nigeria has one of the highest rates of energy poverty in the world and suffers from chronic power cuts even as climate change is having a large impact on the country. Sharp increases in extreme heat are affecting the many millions of people without access to air conditioning or electricity.

In addition, changes to precipitation threaten Nigeria’s largely rain-fed agricultural sector. Some even suggest that climate change is fuelling the current conflict in the north of the country, spiralling into the farmers/herders imbroglio.

The federal government has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2030, when compared to “business-as-usual” levels. This pledge rises to 45 per cent on the condition of international support.
A 2015 survey showed that more than half (61 per cent) of Nigeria’s population considers climate change to be a “very serious problem”, compared to a global average of 54 per cent and consider “extreme heat” to be the largest of climate change’s threats.

Much of Nigeria’s tropical forest has already been destroyed. Between 2000 and 2005, the country lost 55.7 per cent of its primary forest – giving it the highest deforestation rate in the world over that period.

Since 2005, rates of deforestation have remained high in natural forests, according to data from the Global Forest Watch. From 2010 to 2019, Nigeria lost 86,700 hectares of tropical forest, releasing the equivalent of 19.6 MtCO2.
But this may even worsen as the prices of cooking gas continues to skyrocket and Nigerians seek to find solace in the no so good old firewood, a big greenhouse emitter.

Scientists say that temperatures in Nigeria have risen by around 1.6C since the start of the industrial era – higher than the global average. Depending on the rate of future climate change, temperatures could rise by a further 1.5-5C by the end of the century.

OPEC’s argument

Secretary General of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Dr. Sanusi Barkindo, believes that the discussions around a carbon-free world are mostly based on sentiments and emotions rather than hard science.

This line of thought is also toed by Nigeria’s Minister of State, Petroleum, Chief Timipre Sylva, who says there are many pathways to achieving net zero without necessarily halting funding of oil and gas projects.

Indeed, Barkindo has warned that if the calls to halt investments in the oil and gas sector are heeded, the current crisis in the gas market could worsen, stressing that leading energy outlooks show that the world will need a broad portfolio of fuel choices to support the post-pandemic recovery.

Even by 2045, Barkindo argues that oil and gas together will continue to provide more than half of the world’s energy needs – with oil at 28 per cent and gas around 24 per cent.

The former Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) insists that these two fuels will be the “heavy-lifters” of the world’s economy and energy system for the foreseeable future.

Given the current expectations, the secretary general says that the industry will continue to need predictable capital to juggle the demands for more energy and more progress on meeting global climate goals.

“There is no short-cut to a lower-carbon future, and you cannot short-sell vital energy assets if you are to achieve a smooth transition,” he maintains.

Africa’s take

Chair, African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change, Tanguy Gahouma-Bekale, writing recently, noted that at COP26, the African Group of Negotiators will echo the African leaders.

“We will speak with one strong, clear and single voice in Glasgow. We will maintain that COP26 will succeed only if Africa is at the heart of the negotiations. In fact, under the UNFCCC, putting Africa at the heart of the global climate agenda is a binding obligation.

“Africa’s situation deserves extraordinary attention: the continent contributes just 4 percent of global total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the lowest of any region, yet its socio-economic development is threatened by the climate crisis. In other words, Africa contributes the least emissions but suffers the brunt of the consequences,” he stated.

He noted that for example, in addition to the effects of the climate crisis such as food insecurity, population displacement and water scarcity, more than half of African countries are likely to experience climate-related conflicts.

At COP26 in Glasgow, Gahouma-Bekale, explained that the developed countries must avoid shifting their climate responsibilities, particularly regarding their cumulative GHG emissions, to developing countries and lead with clear targets for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

“Second, based on the commitments and obligations under Article 4 of the UNFCCC, developed countries must mobilize and provide adequate climate finance resources and transfer environmentally sound technologies to African countries.

“Third, the COVID-19 crisis must not derail the climate finance agenda. A massively scaled-up and more progressive multilateral response is required to address the climate crisis, and finance is at the heart of it,” he stated.

Furthermore, he mentioned that developed countries must pledge to meet their pre-2020 climate finance gap of $100 billion, stressing that the $100 billion per year should be the floor, not the ceiling.

Nigeria’s plan

Minister of State, Environment, Sharon Ikeazor, speaking earlier this month, said the federal government of Nigeria, would seek out opportunities to mobilise funds to mitigate the challenge of climate change in the country at the event.
At the 15 National Council on Environment (NCE) Ikeazor said the commitment to improve the nation’s carbon credit has led to the remediation of 15.3 hectares of polluted land into arable land suitable for agricultural activities in Ogoniland.

She also listed the ongoing construction of six water supply schemes with a capacity of supplying 2400 cubic meters (m3) of portable water per day to communities across the four LGAs of Ogoniland.

She added that the ministry is also accelerating the implementation of the Great Green Wall Programme, through its Agency, the National Agency for the Great Green Wall (NAGGW), which she said has cumulatively increased the total average of arable land recovered from a baseline of 90 Hectares in 2019 to 4,792 Hectares by the second quarter of 2021.

The minister noted that the ministry also ensured the issuance of 29 permits for the export of hazardous wastes and import of green wastes in line with the Basel Convention on Trans-boundary Movement of Hazardous Waste and other Wastes and their Disposal.

She said all these efforts aimed at the safety of the environment would be raised at the event with a view to access funding for Nigeria to further fight climate change.