The Return of Military Coups to Africa

IN THE ARENA

As African Union and ECOWAS offer sterner pushback against military coupists in Mali, Guinea, Chad, and Burkina Faso, elected rulers running despotic regimes in West Africa should rethink their regressive governance models to save the sub-region’s remaining democracies, Louis Achi writes

With canny prescience, former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Tukur Buratai (rtd), now Nigeria’s Ambassador to the Benin Republic, had on December 4, 2020, sternly warned his officers and men to perish the idea of any coup attempt in Nigeria. Did he foresee the series of military coups that would sweep out civilian administrations and put the West African region on edge? Now a diplomat, it may be difficult to get him to share his genuine thoughts on the subject matter – beyond nimble diplomatic prattle.

According to the brawny ex-army boss, the Army hierarchy was aware that some generals were being approached and revealed that his eyes were on them. “Democracy has come to stay. We will not tolerate any agent of destabilisation. The years of military misadventure in politics have never carried us anywhere. It is over…Do not hobnob with politicians,” he had imperiously declared.

Buratai had also in May 2017 warned his officers against unholy alliances with politicians. The statement came on the heels of a major shakeup in the Nigerian Army then.

It appears that Buratai’s clairvoyant homilies would have hugely benefited the political leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad if they had had their antennas pointed at Abuja – and even Guinea-Bissau which escaped military overthrow by the whiskers.

As it were, 72 hours ago, jittery West African leaders held an emergency summit in the Ghanaian capital Accra, in response to the recent spate of coups in the region. The summit was initiated after Burkina Faso, on January 24, 2023, became the third member of the 15-nation Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to be seized by a military junta.

Burkina Faso’s President Roch Marc Christian Kabore was deposed amid public outrage over his mishandling of violence by armed groups. Burkina Faso followed Mali, where a coup in September 2020 was followed by a second in May 2021, and Guinea, where elected President Alpha Conde was deposed last September.

The Accra Summit came a few days after the President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, survived an attempted coup after assailants armed with machine guns and assault rifles attacked the government palace.

The region’s recent turmoil has stoked fears among ECOWAS countries that efforts to steer West Africa towards stability and democracy are losing significant traction.

According to ECOWAS chairman, Ghana’s Nana Akufo-Addo, the coup in Mali had been “contagious” and had led to subsequent military takeovers in the region. The trend “must be contained before it devastates our whole region. This summit will focus on the emerging threats in our region that stem from the military’s interference in Mali and its contagious influence in Guinea and Burkina Faso.”

It has been widely observed that military intervention in politics appears to be associated with economic crisis and stagnation of growth. In a study of intervention in politics by the military in Latin America, Martin C Needler, author of Mexican Politics and former Dean of the School of International Studies at the University of the Pacific in Stockton, California, suggested that governments were more likely to be overthrown by force when economic conditions deteriorated. When conditions were improving, the military was unlikely to intervene in politics.

It is estimated that there have been at least 100 successful coups in Africa in the past four decades, with more than twice the number of coup attempts. Most military takeovers are initiated by disgruntled junior military officers, who are later supported by a few senior officers. Within days or hours they capture power by detaining or forcing the leaders to step down – as in the case of Mali.

More recently, in its February 1, 2022 report titled, ‘An Epidemic of Failure,’ a research firm, SBM Intelligence, stated that in the last 10 years, there has been a coup in every country in Sahelian Africa. Of more concern is that these military takeovers run through the West Coast (Mauritania) to the East Coast of the continent (Sudan). Significantly, two of these countries, Chad and Niger, are Nigeria’s neighbours.

Today, Nigeria is experiencing considerable socio-economic stress – a scenario not helped by the COVID-19 pandemic, debt trap, the new nationalism sweeping through Europe and North America, as well as the global trade volatilities. As in much of human history and evolution of society, it requires transformational and visionary leadership to stabilise the ship of state by delivering progressive, empathetic governance across the board.

However, a military coup is not an option in the case of Nigeria.

Indeed, a military regime is not an alternative to a democratic rule as it is widely presumed that the worst democracy is better than the best military rule.

But looking at the big picture, the persistent failure of the leadership of ECOWAS and African Union (AU) to take a preventive and active role in dealing with these threats to democracy, human rights and the rule of law has unquestionably continued to contribute considerably to recurring coups and unconstitutional change of governments in many countries.

Human rights lawyer, Mr. Femi Falana (SAN) had early last week urged ECOWAS chairman and Ghanian President, Akufo-Addo to invoke the treaties and protocols of the sub-regional group that ensure good governance so as to prevent the spate of coup d’etat that has taken over three countries in the sub-region.

Falana expressed genuine fears that the Mali and Burkina Faso’s experience may be repeated in other countries if the spate of impunity, disrespect for rule of law, abuse of human rights, poverty, and election rigging continue in the sub-region.

It is settled that democracy is the best form of government but the primary goals of democracy are the people’s safety and their prosperity.

However, when these objectives are defeated as Falana averred, desperation sets in, fuelling extra-constitutional interventions.