NIGERIA AND THE 2023 ELECTIONS

The electorate should make informed choice of leaders, urges Kunle Jenrola

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.”
– Ernest Benn (British Author/Political Publicist)

Even if this unflattering assertion was informed by unwholesome political undercurrents in Britain of the 20th century, it also paints a perceptual characterisation of the political climate in Nigeria of the 21st century.
It captures the reality of a democratic culture redolent in the art of reaping political dividends by stoking dormant but, ultimately, devastating socio-political firestorm; without a trouble- shooting strategy.

That’s probably why the appeasement for inability to fix petroleum refineries is a policy somersault on fuel subsidy removal at the dawn of an election year.

It is worthy of recall that a cocktail of “wrong diagnoses and incorrect remedy” including President Muhammadu Buhari’s approval of $1.5 billion, about N575 billion, for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refinery in 2020 and a proposed monthly transport grant of N5000 payable to 40 million “poor Nigerians” during the first half of 2022 is distasteful.

Needless to hint that the turmoil of uncertainty created by this administration in the fuel subsidy debacle is now muted by the certainty of turmoil that the next administration would have to deal with.

Again, the same absurd problem- solving style, is evident in the tariff- hike remedy for failing public utilities such as electricity and water; while the antidote for high food prices is the conjuration of rice pyramids in Abuja.
Perhaps no incident validates Benn’s Theory better than the evidence provided by the root cause of our insecurity challenge in the North.

A lot of Nigerians remember that the ogre of Boko Haram insurgency, banditry and kidnapping in the North was roused by the perverse dexterity of politicians and organs of state to commit the extra judicial killing of the founder of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf.

This fatal diagnosis became the linch-pin for the radicalisation of Boko Haram and the leeway for importation of extreme religious doctrines symbolised by Islamic States of West African Province (ISWAP). How about of the fomentation of the End Sars Protests presaged by a long history of police brutality leading to the infamous 10-day national slide on a slippery slope to anarchy in October 2020.

Till date, the signs of youth restiveness and embers of self- determination agitations have retained a tinderbox potential in the Southeast and the Southwest.

What we have here is a setting where governments and politicians have always, albeit inadvertently, turned complex problems into compound troubles
Otherwise, why would agreements between government and associations such a National Association of Resident Doctors(NARDs) and Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) remain existential threats to our health and education wellness?

It is only hoped that, by this time, the government would have applied a correct remedy that could head off an imminent long ASUU strike.
As if to switch on a pressure cooker that has nothing but a vote-catching cuisine to serve, the President Muhammadu Buhari’s government announced recently that it would soon name and shame sponsors of terrorism in Nigeria.

But, questions are being raised about the timing and propriety of this move from an administration that wears a toga of corruption intolerance: even as this claim is palled by the recent poor rating by Transparency International of Nigeria’s anti-corruption crusade.

Of course, with a widening gulf of trust between the government and the governed, there’s as much distrust as to arouse suspicion that the Buhari government delayed naming sponsors of terrorism till election time in order to tar their opponents in the run-up to next year’s general elections.

A theme of Matt Ridley’s “The Rational Optimist” that “the more people trust each other in a society, the more prosperous that society is, and trust growth seems to precede income growth” becomes instructive, at this juncture.

Perhaps the argument is sustainable that these incidents that pushed the nation onto the rank of serial debtor resulted from the overzealousness or negligence of top government functionaries and security agents.

But, it is also tenable that in a clime where the institutions are weak and previous agreements are wilfully dishonoured, all actions, reactions and inactions to social challenges flow from the crassitude of the politicians.

The list of insensitive and provocative handling of social challenges is inexhaustible as the scorecards of administrations remain high at identifying problems, only to dash promises made on the altar of economic expediency and exhibition of virtuous selfishness.
In other words, Nigerian politicians, in their quest for power, tend not to “leave any stone (of want) unturned”, during campaigns. But, end up not to “leave any turn (of need) unstoned” through denials and betrayal of trust when in office.

This explains why manifestos of political parties have become mere works of fiction produced from the fertile imagination of political spin artistes.
In the meantime, the challenges of Nigeria have remained perennially unyielding to remedies prescribed by successive administrations.

Topical issues such as restructuring, true federalism, corruption, insecurity, infrastructural decay and the politics of oil subsidy have gained pernicious roots in our polity. Indeed, the habitual lack of political will and creativity to tackle these challenges frontally have continued to warp our sense of comparison.

Consequently, governments swept out of office due to underperformance suddenly become the darling of the masses under the bungling glee or highhanded parternalism of a subsisting administration.
One then begins to wonder whether it is the perfidy of the politician that’s at play or the gullibility of the electorate that’s to blame.

Yes, the citizenry, drenched in the rain of harsh economic reality and electoral unchastity seem unable to shake off the tag of lethargy. Pray, the Electoral Bill would receive the much-awaited Presidential assent from which the masses could draw inspiration.

This reel of political flipflopping of today and yesteryears is to sensitise and prepare Nigerians for a more active engagement with politicians in the next dispensation or, better still, compel us to “shine ya eyes” and make informed choice of leaders in 2023. After all, it is said that “selectivity foregrounds productivity”. There’s hope in the horizon the moment we realise that crying over spilled milk is counterproductive when there’s an opportunity to work on how to prevent a slop or slapper in future. The opportunity to prevent a journey down a slope to disaster presents itself in the unfolding season of 2023 political activities through the vetting of a column of aspirants filing out. It’s time to apply an objective test to our recruitment processes for political offices.
Expectedly, all the aspirants are at their brand-enhancing best.

Suddenly, the hardcore politicians: the Atikus, Tinubus, Tambuwals, Okorochas, Orji- Kalu’s and Umahis; irrespective of the “EFCC and moral baggage” some carry are dusting up a persona of high integrity and crystal incorruptibility.
Even, the less politically exposed Moghalus, Momodus, Ohabunwas are deliberately painting a masterly, rather than botchy portraits as presidential aspirants.

Now, the question is relevant as to what these politicians could offer. Who among them could purge himself of the odious characterization as people who would always “look for trouble whether it exists or not”, diagnose it wrongly and remediate it incorrectly.

Opinions are sharply divided on the ability of the aforementioned “hardcore politicians” to defrost or create a vision that could galvanize for progress and reunite Nigerians to face global challenges. Although available evidence appears uncharitable to this echelon on issues of moral rectitude and integrity, they seem to possess formidable political structures and resources to push their ambition to the hilt.
Apart from PDP Governor, Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State who may have come to exercise an idealistic legal right against a time and tide that favour the emergence of a southern presidential candidate, the others are traveling uphill with weighty wares.

As for those in the other category of “softcore politicians”, they would have to break the bounds of elitism and stock up a war-chest with human and material resources that had given the former group a headstart.
There’s, however, another character flaw and histrionic gestures of the aspirants jostling for the presidential ticket that come in handy as a marking scheme.

It is important to watch out for those that have a tendency to score cheap points by resorting to fallacious appeal to pity and playing the victim’s card. In the Southwest, the fallacy of equating their triumphs or travails to the political antecedents of Chief Obafemi Awolowo or Chief MKO Abiola may be no more than a red herring. All aspirants should reflect their own spots.

Also, a searchlight should be beamed on the aspirants’ Sense of Entitlement and Spirit of Desperation with which they are pursuing their ambition
According to psychologists, “a person with a sense of entitlement has a self-absorbed view of the world and little regard or empathy for their impact on others. In its extreme form, a sense of entitlement may be part of a personality disorder such as narcissistic personality disorder, antisocial personality disorder.”
Now, let’s look at this submission through a prism of geographical provenance of the aspirants.

While aspirants of the Southern extraction lay a claim supported by morality, equity and fairness, their Northern counterparts latch on to legalistic and idealistic arguments.

For instance, the SouthEasterners, not having produced a president except under a parliamentary system , appear to have a compelling argument to be ushered into office on the crest of fairness and inclusivity.
That’s why the politics of cloak and dagger is afoot in that region with ethnic and self-determination violence suppressing the gale of defections and realignment with the All Progressives Congress (APC)- ruling party.

With the supercilious Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State and combative Senator Rochas Okorocha of the APC throwing their hats in the ring , and the suave Moghalu and urbane Ohabunwa of the PDP joining the fray, the game is up.

Interestingly, the sense of entitlement of the SouthWest is founded on a gentleman’s agreement between presidential aspirant, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. As things stand, Tinubu’s claim is assailed by his own baggage as well as the pecadilloes of the present administration he helped to install.

The murkiness of the race is such that the incumbent Vice President, Yemi Osibanjo, a Tinubu protege is now being used to vitiate the aspiration of the Jagaban.

On the Northern front, an effervescent political brinksmanship is unfolding with the likes of irrepressible serial presidential candidate and former vice president Atiku Abubakar attempting a gatecrash, once again, and the idealistic governor of Sokoto State, Mallam Aminu Tambuwal saddling up.

Surely, a sense of entitlement simplicita should not be a defining trait of a true patriot intent on instilling edifying national ethos. The other critical flaw that the electorate would have to distill in the aspirants is desperation. Renowned psychologist, Warren Wood posits: “Desperation is proving oneself to others, validating self-worth, ego-involvement, gaining extrinsic rewards”.

This trait is revealed in some aspirants through the defiance of health status and moral rating. Given Nigeria’s experience with sickly presidents in recent memory, contenders may have to publicise their bill of health to merit the people’s support. Also, aspirants tainted or haunted by criminal burdens would remain unworthy of the office until such odioums are properly fulmigated.

It is recommended that Nigerians should exercise a right of choice that supports aspirations based on inspiration provided by the political office seekers. Our inspiration or motivation should no longer be fuelled by fallacious sentiments and filthy lucre of” stomach infrastructure” .
Politicians, in the emerging dispensation must exhibit an ambition aspirated by compassion and integrity. This, according to Zig Ziglar, “is a powerful force for good that will turn the wheel of industry and open the doors of opportunity”.

Jenrola, a veteran journalist and communication consultant, writes from Lagos