What Is Behind The Resurgence of Coup in West Africa?

THE ALTERNATIVE

By Reno Omokri

First it was Mail, and then Chad, next was Guinea, then Burkina Faso, and now Guinea-Bissau, military coups d’état have spread all over West Africa with a domino effect that is staggering, and unflattering.

What is happening? Why is this negative wind of change blowing in our sub-continent, when the rest of Africa, and even North Africa (the last coup zone frontier of the continent) has gone beyond a nascence of democracy to an entrenchment of the parliamentary system of government.

It is too simplistic to blame this resurgence on corruption and maladministration. With the 7% inflation causing a shock in the stock market, America under Biden is not exactly a model of good governance. Yet, a military coup is unthinkable in the United States and England, where my good friend, Boris Johnson, has been having Naira Marley-like parties at Number 10 Downing Street (the only difference is that Naira Marley was charged to court).

West Africa has its own fair share of governmental challenges, however, if we do not nail down the cause of the resurgence of coups, then no government is safe in West Africa.

Why? Because the best predictor of future events is past events, and this is how it started in the sixties.

It started in Togo, on January 13, 1963 when Gnassingbé Eyadéma and co. assassinated President Sylvanus Olympio. This was followed by the October 28, 1963, Christophe Soglo coup in Dahomey, now Benin Republic, which overthrew President Hubert Maga.

That action which began in Togo, made the sixties an era of coups in West Africa, and we pray that the Twenty-First Century will be better for our sub-region. But we have to do more than pray. We must carry out a post-mortem, because if this coup contagion is not contained, it will become a sub pandemic.

It would seem, from historical data, that Francophone West Africa has traditionally been the start of the domino. Why is that? Recent revelations coming out of Burkina Faso seem to suggest that authorities in France knew about the coup that took out Thomas Sankara and may even have ordered it.

Certainly, the admission by then French President, François Hollande, that France aided Burkina Faso’s president, Blaise Compaoré, lends credence to that accusation.

So, do we blame outside forces for instigating these coups? And why has Francophone West Africa been the trigger for this undesirable turn of events?

Francophone West Africa is already too tied to France’s apron strings. Their currency, the CFA Franc, is both named after France and controlled (not influenced, but controlled) by France. Their trade and industry are heavily dominated by the French, as is their foreign policy.

So, given that coups entered into West Africa’s political life through the Francophone countries and that this current ill wind also has Francophone origins, we should start to ask ourselves some serious questions.

As Ian Fleming (himself a former spy) said in his novel, Goldfinger: “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time is enemy action.”

Is an external enemy of West Africa behind these ugly events? That is not too far-fetched.

Senegal is one of the few West African countries that have never had a military coup, and we can learn a thing or two about why they have had such political stability.

The Senegalese people are not docile, like Nigerians and many other West African people. They are willing to come out in large numbers and challenge the authority that acts with impunity, and this has meant that coups have not been necessary.

For example, when President Abdoulaye Wade sought an unconstitutional third term in 2012, his action triggered nationwide protests, and he was booted out in the election that he thought he was going to win.

So, the first thing that must happen is that the citizens of West African nations must be alive to their responsibilities and understand that rather than being afraid of their government, it is their government that should be afraid of them.

And thankfully, #EndSARS shows that Nigerians are beginning to understand this principle.

But it does not end there. Yes, outside forces may or may not play a role, however, coups are less likely to happen if the regional power, which would be Nigeria, was providing good leadership for the sub-region.

Sadly, under Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria is a follower, not a leader. Ghana has shown more leadership over the last seven years. Muhammadu Buhari appears to be more preoccupied with regime security than with regional security.

I will give you an example. When Major Fernando Pereira overthrew the government of President Fradique de Menezes of São Tomé and Príncipe coup d’état in 2003, then President Obasanjo did not sit down and fold his hands or tweedle his thumbs. He did not release statements. He took action. Decisive action.

President Obasanjo used a carrot and stick approach. He called the coup leaders and threatened them. He followed up his threats by having Nigerian Airforce Jets fly over the São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential palace, in a show of force.

Then he negotiated with the coup leaders to give them amnesty for their act of treason, along with some financial compensation. And like magic, Nigeria, under President Obasanjo, was able to restore a democratically elected government to power.

The million dollar question is this: What decisive action has Buhari taken to show these latter-day coupists that Nigeria is the regional super power, and that she will not accept or tolerate a coup? Absolutely nothing.

Releasing a statement and suspending coupists from ECOWAS is not decisive. What concerns a coup plotter with ECOWAS, when he is in full control of his home government and the treasury?

The weakness and ineffectiveness of Buhari is one of the reasons, if not the most teleological reason, for the resurgence of coup in West Africa.

And we are seeing the same thing on a global scale. Dictators, like Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Ebrahim Raisi, have sensed weakness in President Biden of America, and that weakness has emboldened them to bare their fangs and flex their muscles, and now, the world is again on the brink of a nuclear war, with Ukraine readying itself for a possible Russian invasion.

So, weakness is itself an invitation to these sorts of things, whether regionally or globally, for as Ronald Reagan once said, the only way to get peace is a “peace through strength”.

It is just like a dog. Dogs can smell fear and other negative emotions, because the body secretes hormones that signal what we are feeling. That is the reason why dogs attack some people in a given situation, and refrain from attacking others in exactly the same scenario.
The dogs of coup have smelled weakness in Nigeria’s Buhari and they are biting. And biting hard.

And we must remember that where there are coups, civil wars often follow just like a shadow. I am not sure anyone in Buhari’s circle is thinking that far ahead. But it is a fact.

It was the coups that took place in the Mano River region that led to the internecine civil wars in first, Liberia, then Sierra Leone.
So, we have to guard against a resurgence of that in our sub-region. And I do not know how Nigeria can do that with an intellectually-challenged weakling at Aso Rock.

Let us face the bitter truth, we are losing ground in West Africa to Ghana. It is the sad reality that we have found ourselves in and it is not just affecting us. It is affecting the wider sub-region.

The first coups in West Africa started in Francophone countries (Togo on January 13, 1963, then Benin on October 28, 1963) and gradually spread to Anglophone nations that share a border with them (Nigeria on January 15, 1966, then Ghana on February 24, 1966).
Thus, it will be a mistake for Nigeria and Ghana to watch as coups once again resurge in West Africa.

Obviously, Buhari and his cabal are too dense to learn from history and prevent it from repeating itself. The focus of many cabal members is how to gather as much personal wealth as they can, then borrow in Nigeria’s name to develop Niger Republic.

That is why the likes of Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan have to step up and make sure that West Africa, through the ECOWAS, does not allow these coups to stand, otherwise they may just become too close for comfort.

Let us remember that history does not repeat itself. Men repeat history by not learning from it. May Buhari not be the reason Nigeria repeats a negative history.

Let us also not forget that this same Buhari is the reason why our Second Republic collapsed and we entered a phase of sixteen disastrous years of military rule that culminated in that blood-thirsty rogue named Abacha, under whom Buhari served.

Like a bad penny that keeps on reappearing, this same ala akoba has reappeared on our political landscape, and now not only Nigeria, but West Africa is paying the price of Nigeria’s low quality leadership.

Reno’s Nuggets

If you have $20,000 in the bank and a car costs $20,000, you may have enough money to buy the car, but you don’t have enough money to afford the car. Anything that will cost all your money is something that you can’t afford, because you need to live after that purchase. And this applies whether the product is an iPhone, an item of clothing, or whatever. The only thing that should empty your account is either a sure banker investment or a medical emergency. But to empty your account because of a consumer item makes you a producer of poverty!
#RenosNuggets #FreeLeahSharibu