2023: Which Southerner Can Fix Nigeria?

CICERO/Report

As politicians present themselves to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, it has become increasingly imperative to search for a candidate, who in the face of sensitive existential challenges to the Nigerian state, can best stabilise, resonate and connect with the nation’s edgy diversity, Louis Achi, writes

Nigeria has entered a transition period – a crucial leadership changeover phase. This is understandably sparking some frenzy which cannot be decoupled from the nation’s peculiar political history. With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) scheduling of February 18, 2023, as the presidential Election Day, multi-partisan jostling – both overt and covert – on who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari, is gaining momentum.

However, Nigerians are largely uncertain of their values, their leadership and their safety as what is unfolding in diverse, critical governance arenas is indeed comparable to an Athenian tragedy but lacking the majesty of a Greek drama. It is against this peculiar backdrop that a major change of political guard beckons. In effect, the countdown to the 2023 presidential election has willy-nilly begun.

However, a key political issue ahead of the 2023 general election, especially the presidential office, is zoning. Since the country returned to civil rule in 1999, the presidential office had been rotating between the Northern and Southern regions of the country. Though not written in the constitution, it has nevertheless provided significant North/South balance.

According to the influential Northern socio-political platform, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), the issue of rotational presidency is not a constitutional matter but only adopted by political parties for their own convenience.

But ACF’s Southern peers like Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) and others are strongly pushing back. Their firm consensual position received a powerful boost when Southern governors in a multi-partisan footing backed the position that the next president should come from the South.

Perhaps with some circumspection, they did not flag any particular political party that would produce such candidate – heightening both expectancy and tension. In effect, with what seems to be the nation’s most consequential general election looming, several highly qualified politicians from the South have indicated their interest in succeeding President Buhari.

Who are the key Southern politicians that have signaled their intention to compete for the coveted presidential trophy? The very influential kingmaker who now wants to be king, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is looming large on the stage. His protégé, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, is another big personality. The duo has captured the political limelight in their struggle for supremacy.

Other potential contenders from the South-west are Governor Kayode Fayemi; Works Minister, Mr. Babatunde Fashola; Pastor Tunde Bakare; Senator Ibikunle Amosun and African Development Bank, (AfDB) President, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina.

There are strong indications that President Buhari is said to prefer a Christian Southerner and this has affected the potential Southern Muslim aspirants.

From the South-east are the inimitable ex-Governor Peter Obi; former Senate President, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim; Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa; ex-Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Kingsley Moghalu. Others include Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State, Senator Rochas Okorocha and Minister of State for Education – Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba.

From the South-south are former President Goodluck Jonathan who have not even as much declared his interest in contesting the 2023 presidency but has drawn uncommon speculations of attracting very strong Northern interest. Other potential aspirants are Transportation Minister, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi; CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele; Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Mr. Timipre Silva and Governor Nyesom Wike.

According to unconfirmed sources, Buhari is very disposed to allowing Tinubu and Osinbajo neutralise each other through a war of mutual destruction while his option for succession may remain in the South-south where Emefiele, Amaechi and former President Jonathan remain the most viable favourites.

The strong perception that for Northern Nigeria, lack of political power represents a potent existential threat sits pretty nicely within the unswerving logic of the speculated new proactive calculations of enlisting former President Jonathan for the big job come 2023.

This political project which is indeed assuming weightier dimension by the day is also seen by many as essentially satisfying the Southern symphony for power shift. As it were, certain fundamental considerations are speculated to qualify the soft-spoken former president as the North’s beautiful bride: he will do only a constitution-circumscribed single term and then the region can reclaim power in 2027.

Another dimension is that a Jonathan ticket paired with a Northern running mate will neutralise South-east’s strident clamour for a president of the region’s extraction as the Bayelsa-born politician has morphed into a widely and nationally acceptable force. The North curiously remains cagey about a president of Igbo extraction.

According to the sources, the North does not want or trust Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu. Many in the South also believe he is a hard-sell. This gaming is tied to the political logic that power will definitely shift to the South in 2023, given the unwritten North/South power rotation agreement. And what’s more – Buhari apparently wants to decide who will succeed him.

Not permitting grass to grow under its feet, various influential PDP stakeholders have been reportedly begging Jonathan not to join APC. It could be recalled that the then acting National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Yemi Akinwonmi, led a delegation to Jonathan’s Abuja residence to appeal to the ex-president not to dump the main opposition party.

It is against the backdrop of these crucial unfolding political calculations ahead of the nation’s arguably most consequential presidential election that the validity of beaming the searchlight on former President Jonathan, now a consummate statesman, comes to the fore.

It’s worth clarifying that statesmanship is not earned by self-proclamation as is the wont of many older Nigerian politicians, retired and active. It is often conferred through enduring merit. Former President Jonathan who would typically never claim such status has certainly merited it.

It could be validly posited that indeed some aspects of the formation of the Nigerian state benefited from statesmen and statesmanship. This position would readily cite the contemporaneous quartet of Nnamdi Azikiwe, Ahmadu Bello, Obafemi Awolowo Tafawa Balewa and a handful others as icons and statesmen – of that era. Today, Nigeria needs a genuine statesman to lead its urgent rebirth.

While not absolutely the only qualified Southern politician who could provide exceptional leadership to kick-start change in the Nigerian story, Jonathan leads the pack – and here’s why.

No less a child of destiny, Jonathan, a scientist from the swamps of Otuoke in Bayeslsa State is an exceptionally self-effacing and very modest leader who rose to the limelight through genuine commitment to the rare ideals of humanity.

His leadership experience, political trajectory and record of achievements, arguably eclipses that of most political actors currently. He had been Deputy Governor, Acting Governor, Governor, Vice President, Acting President and President. A compelling fact: he wears no air of self-importance around him, despite his exceptional political odyssey. He remains enigmatically human and humble.

Since leaving office on May 29, 2015, Jonathan remains A-Listed on the global invitations circuit, winning numerous awards, performing electoral duties and speaking at several high-profile international events. An appreciative world apparently can’t get enough of his aura and attractive narrative; that of people-centred governance and politics without bitterness – rare commodities in African corridors of power.

There is no doubt he is being courted like a top-draw celebrity by the rest of the world, clearly because of his great achievements and deep democracy footprints while in office. Indisputably, Nigeria’s political space may not remain the same for a very long time after the tenure of Jonathan.

There is no doubt that Jonathan emerged from the crucible of Nigeria’s leadership pressure-cooker a better and stronger man. Certainly not an angel, but in his wake, he left a united and peaceful country. Under his watch Nigerians remained largely happy, proud, united and prosperous, despite challenges.

Out of office, he has vastly improved himself and become even a more matured leader with huge international respect. Today, Jonathan remains the most sort after and recognizable face of all the living African statesmen. This is not just because of his exceptional accomplishments and the ease with which he gave up power, but also as a result of his rare candour and selflessness.

He is seen all over Africa as the apostle of free and fair elections; the one who stripped a continent of that anti-progressive affliction of a long-existing sit-tight syndrome. Even his traducers admit that it is a rare privilege for a past Commander-in-Chief and President of Nigeria, a nation hitherto reputed for flawed elections, to easily emerge as the toast of the international community, especially in the area of democracy and electoral reforms in Africa.

Never in the history of party politics in Nigeria had a level playing field been created, by the main actors in a race in which they were involved. Ex-President Jonathan did that effortlessly by reforming the electoral system and ensuring that only those with proven competence served in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Beyond the North’s now overt political interest in Jonathan as successor to Buhari, the clear facts attest to his ability and capacity to incept a new Nigeria. The emerging consensus is that he indeed can fix a broken Nigeria.