2023 CAMPAIGN WATCH: The Gathering Momentum…

Across the two main political parties, events are fast picking up ahead of the 2023 general election especially, since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), released the Notice of Elections and Schedule of Activities for the 2023 polls.

While the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which had since held its national convention and elected Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, as its national chairman, is still battling with the issue of zoning of its presidential ticket, which some want zoned to the South, citing equity, justice and fairness; the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is in turmoil and yet to conduct its national convention let alone consider moving to the next stage.
But, generally, events have begun to pick up and the possibilities of what is likely in either of the parties, are still very fluid and most uncertain, despite the heightening theatrics. This is why the days ahead promise to be interesting and at the same time, utterly apprehensive. It’s going to be a long walk to 2023…

Trouble in the Ruling House
During the week, there was a very serious drama at the national secretariat of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), as Governor Abubakar Bello of Niger State, took over the party as the new caretaker committee chairman, with sources saying he took that step with full support of President Muhammadu Buhari.

Bello will now be the one to organise the party’s convention that would produce a new National Chairman but he had to do that with the endorsement by the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party. However, for the party to be able to hold any NWC meeting, the National Secretary, has to be the one to call the meeting.
But, apparently in same clique with the ousted Caretaker Committee chairman, Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State, the National Secretary of the party, Senator John Akpanudoedehe, resigned creating a vacuum. Now, sources told THISDAY that a new protem National Secretary would be appointed so that the March 26 national convention of the party could go ahead.

Top leaders of the party have been singing like canaries, revealing how Buni had been doing everything possible to ensure that the convention never held or if it would hold, then, he would still be in charge of the party and the convention to choose the presidential standard bearer of the party, would be held same day the national chairman would be chosen.

Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State, told newsmen in a statement yesterday that Buni tried to undermine President Buhari and put the party in turmoil.
“Without necessarily dwelling on details that are known to critical stakeholders, the path taken lately by Governor Mai Mala Buni, the immediate past head of the CECPC and an indivisible few, is an unenviable trajectory undeserving of our dear party. It is a disdainful narrative,” Akeredolu said.
Speaking further, Akeredolu said but for the courage displayed by other governors on the platform of the party, the civilain coup against the party by Buni would have succeeded.

“Nevertheless, the courage and determination, as well as shrewd sincerity of purpose demonstrated by most of the APC Governors, remain a delight. Significantly, the swift response and prompt action taken by Mr President have, in no small means, salvaged our great party from internal scavengers. We, indeed, survived a civilian coup largely inspired by mischief and incurable lust for power through artificial barricades.”

The Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, speaking also on ‘Politics Today’, a Channels TV programme, said Buni and his lawyers had already procured a court order since November last year to frustrate the party’s convention to choose the new National Chairman.
“We got to know of a court order last year. It was obtained in November. A member of the party went to court to say there must not be a convention until his case against the party is disposed of, which can take months or years and the lawyers of Buni went to court and agreed with the person and nobody knew about this order,” El-Rufai said.

The signing of the 2022 Electoral Act by President Buhari has, however, changed the dynamics of the 2023 presidential contest as a section of the act stipulated that parties must produce their presidential candidates on or before June 2, this year.
The implication of this is that many presidential hopefuls, who have hitherto refused to officially declare would have to do that now and sell themselves to party members, who would choose the party’s flagbearer. But while contenders are preparing for their parties’ convention, confusion that seems to be reigning in the APC will go a long way in shaping the contest ahead.

When taking over the party, Bello told newsmen that he was not aware of Buni’s position. When asked what prompted some of the decisions he took, he said he did so as the “acting chairman of the APC and governor of Niger State. I am acting chairman (of the) caretaker committee.” That’s instructive and it showed how confident Bello was that Buni might have become another footnote in the chequered history of the party.

Anyim’s Challenge and the Igbo Question
Many political neutrals have stated that if the two major political parties will be willing to zone their presidential ticket to the South, then, the ticket should to the Southeast. This, according to them, is for equity and fairness as the last time any Nigerian of Igbo extraction,presided over the affairs of the country was between January and July 1966 and that was the late General Thomas Umunakwe Aguiyi-Ironsi.

Now, even if the Presidency would be zoned to the Southeast, who are the contenders? There are quite a number of them. There is a former governor of Abia State, Orji Uzor Kalu, who some northerners had even ‘begged’ to run for the Presidency. There is also a former banker and one-time governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi. Though Obi has not officially come out to say he wanted to run, his name has remained a recurring decimal among contenders from the zone. There is also a former governor of Imo State and serving senator, Owelle Rochas Okorocha.

However, leading the pack and one who had taken practical steps, is Anyim Pius Anyim, a former Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. If experience was all that was needed to be the preferred candidate, then, Anyim stands shoulders above any other contender from that zone. In terms of public service, he has occupied very critical and important public offices in the past and these were the Senate Presidency and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
However, beyond this, he has remained a loyal party man and attested to this himself. “I have stood with our party, the PDP, in good and bad times. Like most loyal party members, I have had my moments of elation, as well as some difficult times, but I never moved. I have never switched parties. Therefore, I make bold to say that I can be entrusted with the vision, mission, values and principles of PDP as a committed party man.”

And then he spoke about his experience. Here: “My records as President of the Senate and as Secretary to the Government of the Federation clearly show that I am more interested in building strong institutions than seeking enhancement of personal power or position. My records show effective and efficient management of the nation’s diversity on the basis of equity, justice, fairness and inclusiveness. I am a committed believer in the rule of law; and will always promote and protect the sanctity of lives as well as the rights and liberties of all citizens.”
Having said this, Anyim might have all it takes to become president but it is not handed down on a platter of gold. Even if he was, arguably, the most acceptable to the rest of the country from the Southeast, the Igbos have to show the rest of the country that they are serious about it this time around. Can Anyim be the solution to resolving the Igbo question in 2023?

Osinbajo: Now, the ‘Star Boy’ Has His Job Cut Out
He has not officially declared but Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo has arguably run one of the most effective presidential campaigns with different groups already working for him and a very strong social media team propagating his message – defending and, at times, attacking those who criticise him.
In fact, late last month, a group of youth from the 19 northern states under the name ‘North 4 Osinbajo’, announced they were throwing their weight behind the Vice-President. Coordinator of the group, Sani Mohammed, said at a rally in Jos, the Plateau State capital, that the vice-president was a man of honour, who has what it takes to lead the country.

His words: “The North-4-Osinbajo is a northern political group that is conceptualised to push the ambition of Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo. Our conviction as youths is borne out of the experience, expertise and commitment of the Vice-President.” Osinbajo has so much going for him. In his consultations, he has been practically doing this in official capacity; same activities that are costing his rivals tens of millions of naira, the vice-president has been able to do using official facilities.

However, when the ticket of his party, APC, is up for grabs, he might be forced to realise that being the vice-president might just be advantage on paper going by the current battle for the soul of the party and its 2023 presidential ticket. The governors seem hell bent on dictating things while the president appears to have grown tired of their antics. That’s why, sources told THISDAY, the president moved against the ‘cabal’ controlling the party.

“The President has been meeting with the governors on the need to have the convention since last year,” a source in Abuja told THISDAY, adding: “While they didn’t pointedly disobey the President, they have been doing everything to frustrate the convention. The plan of the Buni-led caretaker committee was to ensure that the convention to choose the new national chairman of the party and the primary election to pick the presidential candidate were handled by them. That was why they wanted to abort the new convention date.”
Now Osinbajo has his job cut out if he is to pick the ticket.

2023, SDP and Why Ekiti 2022 is Key
Many have been talking in hushed tones about the re-emergence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as the alternative platform in 2023. Analysists have been predicting that disgruntled elements in both the ruling APC and the opposition PDP might find the party an alternative platform to try and realise their ambitions if the outcomes of their parties’ respective primaries did not favour them or they were muscled out by stronger and more influential members. Sources told THISDAY that funding for the party, presently, might actually be coming from those, who are currently prominent members of both the APC and the PDP.

However, whatever joker the party might want to pull or whatever some politicians might want to use it for, the governorship election coming up in Ekiti in June might become pivotal. And the reason is not fa-fetched. Former Governor Segun Oni, who was outfoxed by former Governor Ayo Fayose, during the January governorship primaries of the PDP in Ekiti State, had moved to the party to realise his ambition. The rumour initially was that he would be defecting to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), but he eventually pitched his tent with the PDP. Now that will be a joker.

Even his opponents admit, albeit grudgingly, that he remains the most popular candidate. Sources close to the ruling APC had confided in THISDAY, prior to the primaries of both parties, that if PDP should pick Oni, then, APC would have had their jobs cut out. But as expected, Fayose pulled the strings and Bisi Kolawole emerged as the flagbearer of the PDP and Oni, feeling he was rigged out, moved to the SDP to prove his popularity.
Oni is very popular among teachers and civil servants in the state, no doubt. But even his most ardent of supporters know that you also need a very strong platform to show that you are very popular especially, in a political environment, where structures are very important to the outcome of political contests. This is why those folks are seeing the SDP as a viable alternative should they leave their present political abodes. No brainer then why all eyes are on Ekiti 2022. Can Oni pull this off?

Will Okorocha Run Again?
A former governor of Imo State, Owelle Rocchas Okorocha, is one flamboyant politician that is always unmissable in the crowd. In his political career, he has attracted a considerable number of foes and admirers. He it was who gave the governorship ticket of his home state to his son-in-law in 2015 to go and contest the presidential ticket of his party, APC. He eventually lost and came back to his state and collected back the governorship ticket his son-in-law had supposedly won.

Not a few political watchers were shocked by Okorocha’s unusual brinksmanship. But it also showed he was in charge of his party’s structure in the state at the time. He went on to win another term as the governor of the state but his attempts to foist his son-in-law, yet again, on the party as the governorship candidate for the 2019 elections were frustrated by powers that be as Hope Uzodinma, the current governor, picked the ticket, and became governor through the instrumentality of the Supreme Court, even though he came fourth in the election.
Okorocha is currently in the Senate but he has always dreamt of becoming the President of the country. Will he run again, especially now that the timetable of the election proper is known? Distinguished, kindly pick up the mic.