OPEC+ Compliance Jumped To 136% In February, Say Delegates

Emmanuel Addeh

Compliance among deal-bound members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies OPEC+  rose to 136 per cent in February from 129 per cent in January, according to delegates and a document seen by Argus, a firm which provides market insights in the oil industry.

The report said that this was driven by a widening gap between production and quotas from some of the non-OPEC members of the group.

The average compliance rate among non-OPEC countries increased to 135 per cent last month from 123 per cent in January, while conformity among the OPEC participants edged up to 136 per cent from 133 per cent.

OPEC+ achieves its monthly compliance rates using the average crude production estimate of six independent secondary sources, one of which is Argus. Argus’ own figures show the group as a whole was 890,000 bpd under target in February, leaving a compliance rate of 130 per cent.

Pressure is building on the OPEC+ group to boost production beyond the current agreed monthly increments to help ward off a potential supply crunch should sanctions levied on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict cause large-scale disruption to Russian output. 

The coalition has been raising its collective quota by 400,000 bpd a month since last year.

 Under a roadmap agreed last July, that increment is due to edge up to 432,000 bpd from May, when the baseline levels determining quotas and compliance rise for five of the group’s members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE.

OPEC+ ministers are due to meet on 31 March to set May quotas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director, Fatih Birol , had said  that he hoped the upcoming meeting “will come up with some good messages which would help to relieve the strain in the oil markets”. The IEA said earlier last week that up to 3 million bpd of Russian oil production could be pushed offline as a result of the Ukraine conflict.