Banning Russian Oil Will Destabilise Energy Market, OPEC Tells EU

Emmanuel Addeh

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has told the European Union (EU) that global energy markets would be destabilised if the countries follow through with a threat to ban imports of Russian oil.

S&P Global quoted sources in the producer group as having confirmed an official communication on the matter, with traders warning of massive price spikes beyond the surge already seen

OPEC, which formed an alliance with Russia in late 2016 to manage the oil market, has been intensely lobbied by western countries and major consumers to increase crude output to offset the impact of sanctions imposed for the Ukraine war.

But it has insisted that the disruptions to the market are not its responsibility to mitigate, and delegates say the bloc remains disinclined to cast aside its production quotas or raise them more aggressively.

OPEC is scheduled to meet with Russia and its nine other allies on March 31 to discuss May production levels.

“The world can’t replace Russia’s exports,” one source said of the group’s message to the EU, which was delivered in an online meeting between Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson and OPEC Secretary General, Sanusi Barkindo.

Ireland and Lithuania are among the EU member states calling for a ban on Russian oil.

Russia is one of the top three crude producers in the world and exports more than 7 million bpd of crude and refined products.

Europe imported about 2.7 million bpd of Russian crude and another 1.5 million bpd of refined products, mostly diesel, before the invasion of Ukraine, S&P noted.

The meeting, which was requested by the EU, was called to discuss the “extraordinary times for the energy market and the unprecedented oil prices,” which pose “a serious risk to the world economy,” Simson said on Twitter.

The Platts Dated Brent benchmark was assessed at $126.50/b on March 23 and has been extremely volatile in recent weeks, hitting a 14-year high of $137.64/b on March 8 before falling to the month’s low of $107.96/b on March 16.

Western sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector over the war have tightened the oil market and caused European buyers to seek alternative supplies. Some traders have warned that prices could hit $200/b or more with further hits to Russian oil flows.

S&P Global analysts estimate that about 2 million bpd of Russian crude and 700,000 bpd of product exports have been disrupted so far.

Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary-General and Chief Coordinator of the 23-member countries OPEC+, Barkindo, is in the United Arab Emirates to participate in the World Government Summit (WGS) and the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum (GEF) holding in Dubai and Abu Dhabi respectively, between March 27 and 30.