2023 PRESIDENCY: THE WORLD WAITS FOR PDP

The party’s decision on zoning will likely determine its fate in the next  election, writes Joseph Ode  

The world is waiting for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). After months of arguments, altercations, accusations and counter accusations by party faithful, the party set up a Zoning Committee a couple of weeks ago, headed by Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State. The Committee was mandated to determine the zoning of the position of the President of Nigeria to the North or South of the country ahead of the party’s Special National Convention (Presidential primary) scheduled for Saturday and Sunday, May 28 and 29, 2022.

Apart from the need to comply with the party’s constitution which provides for zoning and rotation of party and government offices, zoning the position of President is aimed at streamlining the field of aspirants and picking a standard bearer from the part of the country that would give the party advantage over its rivals. The arch-rival and ruling party at the Federal level, the All Progressives Congress (APC) had zoned its Presidential seat to the South and picked its National Chairman from the North. PDP which had earlier elected its National Chairman from the North was expected to zone the position of President to the South to balance its own weight. Apart from that, zoning the Presidency to the South, according to the proponents of 2023 President of Southern origin, would ensure fairness, equity and justice since President Buhari who would be serving out his maximum two terms of eight years next year is from the North.

But the pro-Northern camp argues that out of PDP’s 16-year rule, 1999 – 2015, the South held sway for 14 years and the North for a paltry two. To them, to take the Presidency to the South in 2023 would amount to marginalization of the North by the party. They also argue that PDP, as the opposition party, must not necessarily follow the ruling party’s political ‘miscalculation’ by zoning the Presidency to the South with relatively few votes, but should zone it to the North where the bulk of presidential votes are usually harvested from.

There are so many other arguments for and against the North and South which the Ortom-led Zoning Committee must have considered in their Tuesday meeting in Abuja. The nation waited in suspense for most of that day to hear which side won. But what came out of the meeting was an anti-climax. The media quoted inside sources as saying the Committee had decided not to zone the position of President; that any aspirant from any part of the country was free to contest. The Committee reportedly based its decision on the limitation of time, saying that any zoning decision ought to be taken six months before the primary election. The reports went viral in the media.

But the following day, Governor Ortom, in a television interview, denied that his Committee threw the PDP presidential contest open, but insisted that a decision was taken which had been passed to the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party for further action. The NEC is expected to either approve the recommendation of the zoning Committee or throw it out and take its own position. What this means is that the nation, particularly the PDP community, is back to square one on the presidential zoning controversy.

In the period leading up to the PDP NEC meeting, whose date is yet to be fixed, Presidential aspirants from both sides of the divide will make frantic efforts to influence the outcome of the NEC meeting. Their supporters will take the zoning argument to the next level; the rival APC will watch with trepidation; the Nigeria electorate will be getting their PVCs ready for action, while the rest of the world will be enjoying the abracadabra called Nigerian politics.

But as the world awaits PDP’S NEC meeting, it is necessary to repeat what I said in my Open letter to Governor Ortom, Chairman of the PDP Zoning Committee, published widely in the Social Media on the eve of the Committee’s meeting. I said that a decision not to zone at all, that is, to leave the presidency open to contest across geopolitical zones should not be an option. Such a decision would be contrary to the party’s constitution which provides for zoning and rotation of party and government offices. Moreover, the party’s efforts in setting up the Zoning Committee would be wasted if all the party can achieve is to come up with a no-zoning resolution. What’s worse, leaving the presidential contest open could lead to a situation whereby the party would produce both its National Chairman and presidential candidate from the North. In the event of this happening, the South would feel marginalized and revolt against the party in the main election. If other advocates of fairness and justice from the North vote in line with their conscience, it could cause electoral loss for the party.

PDP should shun the temptation to accept the argument that zoning the Presidency to a particular region or geopolitical zone would stifle merit or cost the party victory at the polls. This argument is self-serving as zoning is not necessarily inconsistent with merit or leadership capability. There is no part of this country today that cannot produce a President who can rescue Nigeria from its current free fall into disaster. In fact, any decision that undermines the feelings, emotions, experiences and yearnings of the majority of the electorate across the country is a sure recipe for electoral failure. Therefore, to be effective in securing electoral victory, the zoning decision must be aimed at gaining advantage over the opposing political parties rather than assuaging intra-party interests. That is why the argument for balancing the 14:2 years ratio between South and North, an intra-party matter, cannot hold water within the context of a pan Nigeria election.

Fairness, equity, justice and inclusiveness must be the bases for the zoning decisions to be taken by the PDP NEC. The party’s mantra, going into the forthcoming general elections, is to Rescue and Rebuild Nigeria from bad and purposeless leadership. The foundation and catalyst for good leadership is built on a credible electoral process. For PDP, that process begins with the zoning and balancing of key offices within the party, beginning from the congresses through the National Convention and terminating with the general elections. It is, therefore, imperative for the NEC to get it right, the same way the Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi’s Committee did in the zoning of the National offices of the party. It was the Ugwuanyi Committee that gave PDP the hitch-free, rancour-free, peaceful, free, fair and credible National Convention which produced the Dr. Iorchia Ayu-led National Working Committee. Until its report is made public, we don’t know yet how its successor, the Governor Ortom-led Zoning Committee, has performed.

As the PDP NEC prepares to take a make-or-mar decision on zoning of the presidency, it should realize that it faces similar daunting tasks at the state level in respect of the Governorship position. How the party handles those cases could determine its fate in the general elections. Abia and Benue states are typical examples.

In Abia State, Governor Ikpeazu is alleged to be working on a scheme to anoint his kingsman from Ngwa as his successor next year. Dr. Iorchia Ayu, PDP National Chairman, who was in Umuahia, the State capital, last Wednesday, was greeted by a protesting youth group from Abia North who demanded justice from him and the Governor. Ayu reportedly warned Governor Ikpeazu against any action capable of costing PDP electoral victory in the state in the forthcoming election.

 The situation in Benue state is even more worrisome. Benue South Senatorial District (Zone C) has never produced the state Governor since the creation of the state 46 years ago. The Governorship position has been alternating between the Tiv-speakng zones A and B after each eight-year election cycle since 1999, leaving the Idoma and Igede-speaking zone C in the cold. In the last two years, Benue South has launched a powerful agitation for the 2023 Governorship seat through a group known as Benue Rebirth Movement (BRM), headed by the respected Avm Monday Morgan (rtd). BRM is insisting on the zoning of the governorship position by all the political parties, especially APC and PDP, to zone C. So far, Benue South has been able to come up with a zonal consensus candidate (Engr. Benson Abounu, the incumbent Deputy Governor). But he has to contend with over 30 other governorship aspirants from Zone A. Dr. Ayu, Governor Ortom and Senator Gabriel Suswam (Zone A) are in the process of pruning the number down to a single aspirant who will square up with Zone C’s Abounu. But Zone C people interprete the emergence of powerful aspirants from zone A and the body language of Tiv leaders to mean an unwillingness on the part of the Tiv to relinquish power. Depending on where APC picks its gubernatorial candidate from, PDP may face some consequences if it fails to nominate its gubernatorial standard bearer from Zone C.

Matters of fairness, equity and justice in Benue, Abia and other states as well as at the national level will significantly determine whether Nigerians will give PDP the mandate next year to implement its avowed mission to rescue and rebuild Nigeria.