BATTLE FOR CROSS RIVER’S GOVT HOUSE

It is still anybody’s game, reckons

Godwin Obasinjom

The jostling is on about who should lead Cross River State in 2023. It is now no longer a question of zoning. It is about who has the wherewithal to take the final gubernatorial prize. The list of aspirants is quite long on both sides of the divide – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

For the PDP, Senator Sandy Onor set the trail by making his declaration in November 2021. “So, I, Sandy Ojang Onor, professor of history, senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the one they call ‘The Original Caterpillar’, formerly declare for the position of governor of Cross River State, come 2023,” he declared.

His declaration sparked a hoopla especially from the Southern Senatorial District, who laid claim to an existing zoning arrangement. His was a declaration made with the confidence of one with a formidable army. But is Onor’s war chest working? Let us remind ourselves. It was not too long ago that members of Central Senatorial Caucus of the PDP came up with a statement denouncing Onor’s aspirations and expressing support for the aspirations of the Southern Senatorial Caucus to have one of their own.

A statement signed by 37 members of the caucus read:

“The Central Senatorial District has provided leadership, direction and strength vital for the consistent success of PDP in the state and resolved that this role has become even more imperative given the desire of the people of Cross River State to return PDP to power in 2023.

“The Central Senatorial District supports the principle of zoning and rotation of political responsibility in the state, and particularly supports the sustenance of the rotation of the governorship of Cross River State following the already established sequence amongst the various senatorial districts.

“That the governorship of Cross River State in 2023, following the established sequence of rotation, should be zoned to the Southern Senatorial District of Cross River State; this position is taken in the unshaken confidence that there are members of the party from the Southern Senatorial District with capacity, competence and commitment to lead the state and restore the developmental strides the state was hitherto known for.”

But zoning is no longer an issue. It has been long accepted, perhaps, for the sake of peace that the race is open to all in the party. It is now a question of who the PDP will put forward to match the craftiness and guile of the incumbent, Senator Benedict Ayade, who runs the APC machinery. By the way, Ayade has declared that power must go to the south making the ambitions of the likes of Senator Bassey Otu, Bassey Ndem, Asuquo Ekpenyong and Ben Akak stronger, even as we hear that John Owan Eno may go against the grain and declare his intention to run for the gubernatorial prize.

Going forward it is necessary to state that none of the APC aspirants can be expected to spring a surprise against the PDP behemoth in the state. That the APC was able to pull a win in the recently concluded Yala/Ogoja Federal Constituency elections does not suggest that APC would spring any further surprise in the state. Jude Ngaji can expect to join Alex Egbona in the Federal House and that will be it – two out of eight. The other six constituencies still belong to the PDP.

The battle then is within the PDP. None of the aspirants is a pushover. Yet, from intense analysis it is easy to say who will be the best foot forward. We have already mentioned Sandy Onor. But he may not get the prize. Sandy is strong, perhaps, in the Central Senatorial District. Against APC, he may not do so well in the south if he were the PDP candidate. The south wants the prize, so they will support a southerner. APC will give them that candidate. In the North, Onor will be going against the brute force of Benedict Ayade. With Onor as PDP’s candidate, for APC, that will be a goal.

Other PDP aspirants have been hyped as jostling for the gubernatorial seat. The lady among them is Ambassador Nkoyo Toyo. She may stand a chance if all the Cross River women rally around her. But will they allow their sentiments to override their realities? Perhaps, not. Then there is Arthur Jarvis Archibong. His claim to fame is his father, former Military Governor, Cross River State, Brigadier-General Dan Archibong, and his private university that goes with his name. But he is a political novice and remains doubtful as even getting the Southern vote.

Possibly a formidable aspirant is Dan Asuquo, popularly known as DanSuki, who represents the Akamkpa/Biase Federal Constituency. He is popular among the Southern youth but remains a doubt in the other senatorial districts.

This leaves us with Senator Gershom Bassey, incumbent senator of the Southern Senatorial district. He has been in the political sphere for quite a while, since the truncated reincarnation of democracy in Nigeria in 1993; even though he ran for political office for the first time in 2015 where he beat Bassey Otu to take the seat and again in 2019. Bassey is PDP’s strongest candidate in the south. Against an APC, as a candidate he will take the Central, given the support of the likes of Liyel Imoke and indeed, Sandy Onor. In the North, it will be a battle. Even if Ayade’s forces win there, it will be very slim.

In Cross River State, incumbency does not always win. History has it that when then Cross River State, Dr. Clement Isong, lost in the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) primaries in 1982, his attempt to back his predecessor, Chief Udoakaha Esuene as the standard bearer for Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the subsequent election flopped miserably. The Cross River State electorate does not suffer fools gladly. They are loyal and steadfast in their choices. Unless Ayade can convince them strongly, the Cross River State electorate would not easily vote an APC.

But Gershom Bassey cannot afford to assume he will get the prize that easily. He must be nominated by his party, the PDP, first. That can only be if the party comes together united and pragmatic. It is the safest and logical thing. Any other way will be winging it, no matter the war chest.

 Obasinjom is a filmmaker and

 lives in London