SCENARIOS AROUND OSINBAJO’S EMERGENCE

Finally, Yemi Osinbajo has been untied and after a gruelling meeting with 12 governors he made his declaration. Congratulations to him, but reactions will come from the Bola Tinubu camp. I envisage a quick media fight between both camps but they must be careful to not do any hard damage. Some questions still linger about the political base of Osinbajo. Is it that the 12 governors he met will deliver delegates for him? Will he be able to get all the support necessary? Is he Buhari’s anointed candidate? All of this will become clearer in the coming days. Formerly there has been a divide in the presidential quarters about the loyalty and some think Osinbajo’s declaration is a nod by the powers that be. Apart from all this, Osinbajo is an intellectual that has done a lot for the development of the legal practice in Nigeria and most especially Lagos, serving as commissioner for Justice for eight years under the Bola Tinubu administration and a lot of watchers think he is the right fit for the job. The converse argument is that Osinbajo has never won any elective position. In fact some still see him as an intellectual not a politician. I believe with his declaration, there are many scenarios which will include a Bola Tinubu moving to another party if he doesn’t get the APC ticket. Some have even posited that it is a way of distracting the southwest from getting a presidential ticket as the two candidates from the south west will be busy fighting for the ticket. There is also a scenario that if Osinbajo gets the ticket and faces probably an Atiku he might not get the support of the North. I must repeat these are just scenarios but it has to be stated that Pastor Osinbajo has an uphill battle to emerge. Another question is: Will the Redeem and other Christian body votes help him in his quest to emerge? However some complain about his continuity outlook in his speech; some say he must remove himself from the administration he served as Vice President, but some also say if he does that, it might alienate him from the Buhari supporters. We all remember the case of Al Gore dissociating himself from Bill Clinton due to the Monica Lewinsky saga. That act really affected his campaign. In all of this one thing is certain: Osinbajo will be the most educated Nigerian leader but will he be able to shake Nigeria off its economic, security and social challenges? How will commander -in- chief Osinbajo deal with Boko Haram and banditry? Many questions will continue to emerge, let the race begin.

Rufai Oseni, rufaioseni@gmail.com