WRONG TIMING FOR NATIONAL CENSUS

The present socio-political climate poses a credible threat to the conduct of census, argues Monday Philips Ekpe

Last week, the National Council of State approved March and April 2023 as the new dates for the national population census. The National Population Commission (NPC) is warming up to conduct the pilot exercise in June this year shortly after the political parties are through with their primaries. Many Nigerians, notably a former Military Governor of Kaduna State, Col. Abubakar Umar, are deeply concerned about its timing, citing the security challenges in most parts of the country at the moment. It would take incurable, maybe irredeemable, optimists to discountenance these well-established worries. The members of the council who include former heads of state are, no doubt, people of honour and wisdom who have made critical official decisions but, in this particular case, they should have been more thorough before giving their approval.

Let’s be clear on one point. The desirability of conducting a national head count in Nigeria is not in question. Even the N117.33 billion budgeted for the programme can be well defended, if for nothing else, to underscore the importance of having demographic figures that can be trusted by the government at all levels, public and private sectors of the economy, Nigerian populace, international community and agencies, researchers and other users of our statistics. The National Chairman of NPC, Nasir Isa Kwarra, said as much the other day. According to him, “It is very crucial because through census, we generate the data that we use for policymaking, for planning, for development, by the three tiers of government, and the private sector; they all need this. If you are in the private sector and you’re producing something, certainly, you need to know the population of an area if you want to create a market there. The data we’ve been using are just projections, estimations, and are sort of obsolete. We need the actual census data to use for our planning.”

It is certainly not proper for the various entities that depend on the knowledge of actual population figures to keep relying on estimates, no matter how informed. For long, the National Bureau of Statistics has been the major source of the information that should not primarily emanate from it, all things being equal. The National Development Plan (NDP) covering 2021 to 2025 puts the nation’s population between 200 and 220 million people. International agencies are also not left out in the quest to fill the void left by our irregular and sometimes contestable numbers. The World Bank estimated 206 million in 2020 and, last year, the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) put Nigeria’s population at 211 million residents. Statista thinks that we are now 213 million, with a projected increase to 233 million by 2025, something slightly above NDP’s 220 million for the same year.

All those approximate evaluations can be puzzling to an average citizen or even individuals and organisations that work with the data of that magnitude. One reason might be the results of the previous censuses. Take the last two, for instance. In 1991, the country was said to be 89 million. The last one in 2006 put the number at 140.3 million (71.3 male, 69.0 female), representing a growth rate of 57.3 percent. What exactly are the factors that have contributed to astronomical rise being experienced? Only a well thought out and executed census would help Nigerians to make sense out of the projections coming out of these different quarters.

As cogent and urgent as the grounds for the exercise are, the present socio-political climate in the country poses a credible threat to its success, unless we are bent on embarking on our trademark wasteful programmes. Much has been presented and argued at numerous fora about the unprecedented heights of distrust, anxiety, agitations, divisions and insecurity that exist at the moment. Regional, ethnic and religious lines that have existed in Nigeria for long are becoming increasingly wider. Incidentally, these are the same elements that endanger the elections. Unless a miracle occurs, which is very unlikely, we will continue to grapple with these well-entrenched features pre, during and post 2023 general election. It, therefore, does not make sense for both of them to be run close to each other. The two projects are potentially combustible in the nation today, sadly. Just like mixing petrol with gas. In the face of the unfortunate realities of contemporary Nigeria, this is not alarmist. Our security institutions are clearly under-staffed, ill-motivated, poorly equipped and over-burdened. And they are expected to play strategic roles in the conduct of these prime assignments.

One question that should dominate the minds of our policy makers and implementers is, between the polls and the enumeration, which one can be shifted at this point? The census, obviously. Yes, one realises that politics can get things blurred, thereby complicating matters that are ordinarily apparent. As a government, that of President Muhammadu Buhari has the right to design and complete its own legacy agenda. Equally true is the fact that the country’s census is long overdue, since it ought to be carried out at an interval of 10 years. That said, however, components like safety, logistics, credibility and acceptability must take precedence over any political considerations. There are many other things this administration can bequeath to the nation. The last population census was held the year that preceded the general poll that brought in the late Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as president. Unfortunately, the kind of polarisation and insecurity being experienced now was probably never even contemplated then. And, by extension, the country enjoyed relative tranquility within the polity and also a conducive atmosphere for the exercise.

The point being made is that the time between next year’s election and the handover date of May 29 is too sensitive to be filled with a major schedule like national census. While hoping and planning for the best, it is better not to take chances. Any unexpected outcome of the head count could trigger raw emotions that may even jeopardise the hand-over of power. Recall that Lagos State Government was so dissatisfied with the 2006 census that it conducted its own soon afterwards. With the way things are, reactions may not be trusted to be that civil and at governmental level only.

In Nigeria, counting the people is not a straightforward affair as it is laden with assumptions, prejudices and primordial sentiments. For example, most people in the south think that the numbers from the north are inflated. That notion is often treated as a forgone conclusion and plenty of passion goes into its discussions. At least two facts are ignored in the equation. One, a clear characteristic of the south is its higher density than the north. Two, the north accounts for between 70 and 80 percent of the nation’s landmass. Luckily, the scientific, digital method that is being planned could be our saving grace. The first step towards getting it right this time is to properly organise it, away from a politically charged and visibly insecure period.

Dr Ekpe is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board