MAD HYPOTHESIS AND SOUTHERN POLITICIANS

The south should put its house in order, writes Akin Adeoya

As Ekiti State governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi finally confirms pundits right that he is bent on contesting the APC presidential primaries, it is now clear that southern All Progressives Congress politicians have succumbed to the MAD hypothesis. Think about it, almost every governor or minister with the minutest clout is coming out to bid for the ticket. The myth of southern solidarity is now totally destroyed because of inordinate ambitions and selfish personal agendas. Except there is some magical concoction in the offing how can any southerner win now with the dispersal of votes which is bound to occur? In south west alone we have former governor Ibikunle Amosun, vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, Gov. Kayode Fayemi and of course the Jagaban himself, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

There were early hopes that the East will have a strong showing given the loud campaign to concede the presidency to the region. But it seems that tantalising possibility has now tempted every Tom, Dick and Harry east of the Niger with possibility of some votes at the primaries to throw their hats in the ring. Without eastern and western solidarity how do you

garner the votes? The South South is doing same. Even tired old Jonathan wants to come back to Aso Rock. My God! Rotimi Amaechi has suddenly become an Igboman. Amaechi and his trains flying all the way to the depths of Niger Republic. Amaechi who says the reason Nigerian train service is extended to Niger Republic is to get the Niger people to patronise the port of Lagos. Has port of Lagos met the needs of Nigeria in terms of capacity? They will abandon efficient Cotonu and other sane ports to enter the insanity of Apapa? Amaechi who said he approved reducing train speed to make way for cows? Amaechi who wants to protect trains with bullet speed fighter jets in a milieu where even commercial jets cannot afford aviation fuel? Amaechi that openly justified mortgaging our national assets to China without putting in the disciplined system that can run and make these same assets generate profit? Is it the train that those terrorists are attacking that will pay back those billions? The Chinese are coming. But let them come. Let’s see how they seize control of the tracks from the bad boys of Sambisa and their friends. That’s another matter.  Amaechi wants to be president. Ngige wants to be president. He and the funny minister who have jointly destroyed university education in Nigeria, Emeka Nwajiuba,

junior minister of education, whose primary job is to safeguard educational institutions and their staff and students has gone to drop N100m to buy form to become president when ASUU is still on strike. Ngige, on national television says it’s right for our doctors to continue to run abroad. He says it is good for the system. He says we have more than enough. Doctors who are mostly trained in publicly funded universities, in a country where basic health delivery is a nightmare!

Well, what shall we say about my state governor, Fayemi? I will just say for now, that his coming, at this time is a bit if an anti-climax. We are at the stage of presidential interest announcement fatigue. I hope, in his upcoming formal declaration, he will not just be talking about the “juju” he wants to go and do in Aso rock to turn Nigeria to another China. Instead, he should tell us about the magic he has wrought in our native Ekiti to turn the place into a living paradise. He should use his past to sell his hope for future. I think he was one of those that went to great lengths to sell the Buhari candidature to us. That one hasn’t worked out so well in my opinion. So this time we need evidence, track record not well researched grammar about how Nigerians will be luxuriating in scientific parks like he promised Ekiti before. We are still looking for the

scientific parks.

I remember a conversation between Professor Bolaji Aluko and Dr Fayemi as revealed by Aluko in ekitipanupo, an indigenous think tank. Both were riding in a car along Iworoko Road. This was the heart of the Ekiti State university student population but at 8pm it was in pitch darkness, as usual. Prof said he asked JKF, will you allow students to suffer in darkness like this as governor? You can guess the answer from the man who would soon take over as governor. A couple of months ago I drove through Iworoko. The darkness was suffocating. The reader can try the journey too. That’s after two tours of duty. But hey, I am not passing any judgement yet, I am waiting…

I will be waiting for that statement and the track record part of it. No other promise of future magic will work.

 Hey! what is MAD hypothesis? Governor Fayemi would know as a scholarship of war studies. One of the ideas that drove the rapid development of nuclear weapons by the great military powers in the ‘70s and ‘80s was the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction(MAD). The key opposing powers believed that the only way to prevent the other powers from attacking them with a nuclear weapon was for them to be ready with their own for

immediate retaliation. I think some smart Alec has succeeded in deploying that logic into the Southern political fields. Now the Southern guys are going to destroy each other assuredly while paving way for some northern candidate. Pundits in the APC are already talking about fielding a northern candidate to take advantage of Buhari’s famed “12 million vote bank”. They are just waiting for PDP to pick a northern candidate before pushing the argument that none of the one state actors in the south can garner the Pandora’s box of 12 million vote bank! And they would be right, with the long list of presidential candidates sprouting like mushrooms in the south, the united votes of the north for a relatively few numbers of candidates will surely carry the day.

 Adeoya writes from Lagos