FALLACIES OF BUHARI, ATIKU’S VOTES BANKS

Paul Obi contends that the statistics being bandied are muddled

“Where facts exist and are testable, it becomes a public duty to use them as nails, driven deep to the coffins of liars.”

– Benders of Truth; Fugitive from History, Wole Soyinka 

The Athenian concept of democracy was meant to create a level playing field for citizens towards self-government. The means in which citizens, masses, and the proletariat come together in consonance about the task of governing society. But as democracy evolves, gimmicks, intrigues and hanky panky creep in, lies foreshadowing truth. Then, the rule of the game sank deeper into deception for the ultimate goal of state capture. Politics and democracy further suffered distrust. Elections became avenue for statisticians and political pundits to manipulate through mathematical deception. Elections and electoral outcomes even the fairest of all left doubts about their numbers in the hearts of men. 

Edward B. Foley in his work The Ballot Battles: the History of Disputed Elections… traces votes manipulation to 1789, where Elbridge Gerry, the man who first started electoral manipulation and who the word gerrymandering was named after manipulated the redistricting of constituencies to his own advantage. In Nigeria, disputed political headcount and ballots dates back to the 1950s during the national census. All our elections have been disputed and their figures (votes) questioned and interrogated. In the 1979 Presidential Election, the battle of the ballots and votes went up to the Supreme Court in the case of Awolowo vs Shagari/SC62/1979 where the appellant argued that the tribunal and the electoral body misdirected themselves in the interpretation of 12 states as 2/3 of 19 states instead of 13. Though, the case ended in favour of President Shehu Shagari, but it left an impression of Nigeria’s chaotic votes computational system.

Today, the 1999 Constitution as amended in section 133 (b) and 134 (b),  expressly states that a candidate for the Office of the President must be declared winner only when, “He has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.” But beyond this mathematical and computational outlook of Nigeria’s presidential elections, politicians’ penchant for ascribing to themselves powers and figures of votes not tenable has the potential of derailing our democracy in a way. 

For too long, President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have been culprits in the act of bestowing to themselves vote numbers that leave a vast space for fallacies. Such narratives and fallacies are capable of leaving Nigerian voters deceived to believing non-existing electoral powers. It is therefore pertinent and incumbent on pundits and those with the requisite knowledge of elections to rebalance and nail those fallacies for good and forever. The consequences of allowing such fallacies go unchallenged may result in supporters of Buhari, Atiku and other politicians to deploy undemocratic measures in order to meet up such fabricated electoral figures and derail Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. 

In deconstructing the fallacies of Buhari’s and Atiku’s votes, our guide will definitely be the 1999 Constitution in sections 133 (b) and 134 (b) as earlier noted among other statistical electoral resources in recent times. First, it is undeniable that Buhari has large cult-like following in the North, and by extension, this has transformed into large chunk of votes and voters’ turnout for him in the last five general elections circles from 2003 to 2019, culminating in his 2015 outstanding “Change” victory. But in all his presidential runs in 2003, 2007 and 2011 where he was presented as a Northern candidate with clannish agenda, President failed woefully to meet the 2/3 requirements. In these three presidential polls, he never won Adamawa, Benue, Plateau, Kwara, Kogi, Taraba States and the FCT, seven states out of 19 in the North. Till date, he never won the FCT. 

In his 2015 victory, where he traded off his ethnic toga a little, to the credit to of his managers then, and the media campaign of Redmedia and the Lagos Ojota Orchestra, the 2/3 requirement became a reality. It was results of the South West and most importantly the victories in the North Central states of Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara and the photo-finish race in Plateau State that catapulted Buhari into the Presidency. Statistically, Buhari pulled 15,424,921 (53.96%) to Goodluck Jonathan 12,853,162 (44.96%) –  with a difference of 2,571,619 votes out of 29,432,083 total votes cast. Where it not for the perennial poor voters’ turnout in the South East, a Buhari Presidency in 2015 wouldn’t have been guaranteed. In the political arithmetic calculation in an ethnically and tribally charged and contested nation like Nigeria, a victory against a minority in such a presidential race, do not suggest a votes bank for Buhari. The political dynamics were in his favour. Period! Still, President Buhari can be given his place in amassing such electoral strength and cult-like followership in the North East and North West; but without Southern votes, there wouldn’t have been a President Buhari, or an allusion to a votes bank of his.

In the case of Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s most adored political machine, the figures are not in his favour. Rather, Atiku’s political climb, heights and survival could be linked to his personal political dexterity and acumen. First, Atiku’s presidential run in 2007, remains a non-issue given that the electoral contest was squarely between late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Buhari. Atiku was never in the mix. Then entered 2019 Presidential Election, where Atiku was the standard bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP): in the elections proper, President Buhari scored 15,191,847 to Atiku’s 11,262,978, with a difference of 3,918,869. Categorically, Atiku couldn’t compete with Buhari in the North. Worst still, his performance in the North East, his geopolitical zone was shamefully abysmal. He was trounced by Buhari who won Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe States. Atiku could only win his home state of Adamawa and Taraba States. The most shocking is that in Adamawa State, where Atiku won, he scored 412,266 against Buhari’s 377,488, a paltry difference of 34,878. 

So, when Atiku while meeting with the PDP Board of Trustees (BOT) boasted that “under normal circumstances, this is a guy who has 11 million votes in his space, as a party, I think you should give me the right of first refusal,” the question in the lips of many is where is Atiku’s 11 million votes coming from? He could not garner up to three million votes in the North, and surprisingly, Atiku is against zoning. Where then is Atiku’s votes bank located? In that same 2019 presidential election, Atiku had 2,233,232 from the South South; 1,694,485 in the South East and 1,257,457 from North East, his own geopolitical zone. So, for all the talk about 11 million votes bank in Atiku’s space; those votes are located in the South South and South East. The North had never supported Atiku Abubakar and he basically does not have any votes bank in the North or elsewhere. 

Thus, if the PDP wants to offer Atiku its presidential ticket, it should be on the basis of saleable candidature and persona, not on a non-existing and phantom votes bank. They don’t exist anywhere; all Atiku is eyeing are votes from the South South and South East, because those two geopolitical zones have declared APC as a heist and persona-non-grata. And if PDP decides to pick Atiku, many of us will support him. Even though, not electorally competitive, Atiku will be better than a Buhari in governance. But if the party heeds the clamour of young generation – a generational shift in support of Peter Obi and Gov. Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, Atiku can likewise be a statesman and join the rest of the country to support them. His candidacy, and those of other aspirants in respective elections should not be construed and constructed with blatant fallacies of votes bank. 

Obi is a journalist, researcher and Fellow at the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, interested in media, elections and democracy