C’River: Is Gershom PDP’s Magic Wand to Confront APC, Otu?

With the zeroing of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on Senator Bassey Otu, a process led by Gov. Ben Ayade, the stakes are now high for the leading opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on a possible governorship candidate, many are now asking if Senator Gershom Bassey has the magic wand to trump APC in a state that was once a PDP one-party state. Chuks Okocha writes

Since May 2021, when Gov. Ben Ayade defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the dynamics of politics in the state has moved from that of a one-party state dominated by PDP to that of uncertainty. However,  Ayade’s insistence that the governorship must return to the Southern Senatorial District has kind of given APC a leap in a state that PDP was guaranteed to take back  power from Ayade. The governor’s calculative move to set up a committee within the APC to prune the number of governorship candidates to four – a committee led by former Senate Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba (SAN) was a very strategic one.

At the parley to ensure that a consensus candidate emerged from the South, former Senator Bassey Otu was said to have carried the day, given his pedigree, political reach and dexterity in a gubernatorial contest that promised to be a fight-for-all. Although, gubernatorial aspirants like Sen. John Owan Enoh, Mr Chris Agara and former Minister of Niger-Delta Affairs, Usani Usani may still want to run against Otu, Ayade’s intervention might have sealed the deal and ticket for Otu. Enoh and Usani’s ambition as it stands remains in jeopardy, as delegates are expected to follow Ayade’s  directive of the state APC Chairman, Barr Alphonsius Eba. Speaking recently at an Abuja forum to thank Ayade for the foresight in rallying round Otu as the consensus candidate, Orok Duke, a strong APC stalwart from the Southern Senatorial District sent a warning sign to those who would oppose Otu’s candidature, stressing that, “for those who want to ruin on our parade; the system has a way of taking care of them very well.” With APC’s candidacy settled, what next for PDP?
From all indications, PDP was hoping that APC will miscalculate by either taking the governorship ticket to the Central Senatorial District where either Enoh, Agara or Usani would have emerged, or bring a green horn from the South such as Asuqou Ekpenyong, . But the swift intervention of Ayade, Ndoma-Egba, Eba, Sen. Florence Ita-Giwa in rallying round Sen. Otu  – a very fierce contestant, with solid foundation and war chest is believed to be a right decision that is capable of helping APC to reta Cross River State not through defection but through the ballot votes cast by Cross Riverians.

The battle has now shifted to the PDP. Earlier on, the PDP had made tremendous gains with former Governor, Sen. Liyel Imoke galvanizing support and maintaining a unified front among PDP stalwarts in the state. The emergence of former National Publicity Secretary of PDP, Venatius Ikem as state Chairman also consolidated the party in the North. Although, the likes of Sen. Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe are pitching their tents with Sen. Prof. Sandy Onor from Central Senatorial District for the governorship, the fact that PDP was united gave hope that the party will take back  power in 2023 governorship election.

Speaking recently at the last caucus meeting in Calabar, Imoke maintained that, “we have never lost elections in Cross River since the return of democracy in 1999; a defection is not a loss. In 2023, we do not intend to lose. That’s why the caucus meeting was convened to rub minds, share opinion and strategies on winning the 2023 election,” Imoke added. To this end, while many of the caucus members in the South are rooting for Gershom Bassey, with few supporting Hon. Daniel Asuquo (Dansuki), Arthur Jarvis Archibong, also few in the North led by Jarigbe and Etung are aligning with Sen. Onor. Even in the North, a couple of eminent persons are non-committal  to any candidate at the moment. Across the state, the majority may be cueing behind Imoke to support Gershom Bassey. Still, recent events in the state PDP appears to be sending wrong signals across the broad spectrum of PDP members in the state.

Duke’s Purported Consensus 

Former Governor, Donald Duke’s decision to hold a parley among the contestants from the South similar to Ayade has not gone well with members of the PDP, given that Duke’s interest was orchestrated to lend support to Archibong, who party members believe  has no path to victory in the general election where Sen. Otu with strong footings is already the anointed candidate of Ayade and the rest of the critical stakeholders in APC. Although Duke quickly refuted the consensus arrangement, concerns over the idea have not died down. To make matters worse, Arthur Jarvis is not known to a teeming population of PDP stalwarts and may likely not have the forces and strength to overrun APC and Ayade in 2023 gubernatorial race. Also, considering that Duke’s son-in-law, and current Commissioner of Finance, Asuquo Ekpenyong was also eyeing to governorship ticket under APC, many PDP members have become suspicious of the antics of Duke, given that the Central and Northern Senatorial Districts were not carried along in forging the consensus candidate, in which Duke’s premeditated agenda was to favour Archibong and surreptitiously edge out Gershom. At the end, the consensus idea by Duke was a complete fiasco. What next then?

The Central as the Decider?

Feelers from the central that controls the voting and numerical strength within the PDP are bent on going with Gershom Bassey, a deft move that nullifies Duke’s ill-fated consensus arrangement. Added to that, as Imoke’s body language has shown over time, Gershom is the man for the job. Beyond Imoke, strong forces like Rt Hon. Bassey Eko Ewa from Yakurr, Eko Atu in Abi, Hon Chris Agibe in Ikom; Mr Nicholas Ayua and Chief Godwin Igwe in Obubra, Former Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice, Atta Ochinke, Hon Dr Itam Abang and Hon. Mark Obi in Boki are all rooting for Gershom. The chances of Arthur Jarvis, Sen. Sandy Onor or Hon Dan Asuquo face daunting challenges as the PDP governorship primaries draws near. With the whole Central except Etung already showing its hands, who then will be the decider?  Imoke or a Duke?

Is Gershom Bassey the Answer?

Notwithstanding the permutations and strategies of Imoke and Duke on PDP governorship ticket, Gershom Bassey still holds the ace. Having garnered a lot of support in the South and Central, it will be the greatest political blunder if he fails to get the PDP ticket. Although, he has been the strongest candidate in the race within PDP, some party faithfuls question his pace. They argued that, he has been too slow and somehow sounding off like being complacent. A trait that should never be attached to a gubernatorial candidate in an election where APC is consolidating daily and extending its frontiers.  Gershom is favoured given his maternal lineage in Biase Local Government Area where his mother comes from and Calabar his ancestral home. Although, some believe that Gershom is the most prepared in terms of resources, support base and the needed alignment of the PDP National Working Committee (NWC) and National Executive Council (NEC), others added that he must expedite action and retool his campaign strategies before the primaries. Otherwise, he may be caught up by the political plaque of amnesia and inertia. A path that will not guarantee victory for the PDP.

Can PDP Pull the Strings for Victory?

Yet, the PDP has the momentum steaming against all the odds posed by Ayade and APC bigwigs. Thanks to the firm believe of Cross River voters in the party, despite all the efforts by the ruling APC at the federal level and the defection of Ayade geared towards taking over the state. With four House of Representatives members and some State assembly members, party bigwigs and large supporters aligning under Imoke, a Gershom candidacy is given a lift and a better breath. But with Duke’s agenda being at variance with the PDP State Caucus, the party may be heading for the rocks. An opposition cannot bet on victory when its house is divided. It must seek the fibre of cohesion or die in perpetuity. Will the PDP prefer Gershom Bassey who has defeated Bassey Otu twice in senatorial contest or go for a green horn? These are the daunting questions in a troubling political atmosphere.

The political gamesmanship required for both the APC and PDP is one that has to be built on discreet politicking, leaving no chance for disagreement. Ayade’s ability to pull through with the anointing of Sen. Bassey Otu as the consensus candidate without much ado and squabbles among other aspirants from the South has been applauded as a remarkable political feat, from a Governor whose political DNA has been nothing but convoluted all the while. It is now left for the PDP to wake up or perish in pain.  The outcome of its gubernatorial primaries in the coming week will show if PDP is serious about staging a comeback to Peregrino House after Ayade’s years of big grammar and derailment of Cross River State development and growth .