WIKE’S LOSS, PDP’S GAIN

 Paul Nwabuikwu contends that Wike would have found it hard to muster the support of many critical persons if he had won

When it became clear to Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike that he had lost the PDP presidential nomination to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar by a sizeable margin following a suspense-filled process last weekend in Abuja, the loquacious “Mr Projects” lost his voice.

The man who had dominated the headlines and social media video clips with his scathing putdowns of other candidates, his barbed humour and, on occasion, his gravelly inebriated singing had nothing to say.

According to media reports, he “stormed” out of the event. The reports didn’t say, but I suspect he didn’t make any jokes or sing as he made his way out of the MKO Abiola National Stadium. The joke this time was on him. As young people would say, Wike was served a spectacular “breakfast” on national live television.

He didn’t see his defeat coming. Like Margaret Thatcher who declared that “the possibility does not exist”, when she was asked about the prospect of Britain losing the Falklands war to Argentina in the 1980s, the Rivers State governor did not believe a loss was even remotely on the cards.  His confidence was granite firm. Before the convention, he had asserted, over and over again, “I am not an aspirant. I am the PDP candidate.” He even demanded that a bemused Seun Okinbaloye of Channels TV congratulate him in advance because “nobody will win me in this election”. One got the impression that Wike had received assurance of victory not only from his political allies, but also from spiritual quarters as well.

The source of his confidence was clear. He had invested his war chest, marshalled his forces, cashed his political cheques, reviewed his strategy, conducted pilots to test the efficacy of his strategy, deployed his troops and the signals from the frontlines said the same thing: victory was certain.

And then came that climactic moment. Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal, his northern political “bestie”, a trusted ally whom he had consistently supported, stood up, made a rambling speech about Nigeria and the imperative of patriotism and crossed over to the Atiku side. That was when the reality hit Wike. As Atiku ally Dino Melaye physically lifted Tambuwal high in appreciation, Wike’s ambitions to replace Buhari were headed in the opposite direction. 

In the end, it wasn’t even a close contest. Atiku got 371 votes, a whopping 134 votes higher than the 237 votes obtained by the second placed Rivers governor. Bukola Saraki was a distant third with 70 votes. Akwa Ibom governor on the radar during the pre-convention campaigns got 38 votes, almost double the number of Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed, a much more visible contestant. The difference between Atiku and Wike was almost half of Wike’s total votes. So he did not get a chance to go into a run-off with Atiku which would have been a more gallant way to lose.

Besides his supporters and admirers, others mourned Wike’s loss. Many in the APC also did. The ruling party apparatchiks desperately wanted him to win because he is widely considered a lightweight in electoral terms compared to the battle-hardened Atiku who has been contesting the presidency for almost three decades. In the Social Democratic party nomination contest in 1993, the Turakin Adamawa was third behind MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe and his support was critical to Abiola’s eventually getting the ticket. More recently, Atiku, with Peter Obi on the ticket four years ago, had given APC a run for its money, and, many believe, actually snatched the critical state of Kano before some “government magic” was introduced.

It’s easy to see why APC aparatchiks wanted Wike as PDP’s candidate.  Like his predecessor Peter Odili in the runup to the 2007 elections, Wike earned a name as the biggest “Donatus” of Nigerian politics, a politician whose path to Eldorado was paved with Naira and dollar notes. Nuhu Ribadu, then EFCC chairman, put paid to Odili’s ambition to become Umar Yar’Adua’s running mate. And so Odili’s ambitions, like Wike’s did 15 years later last Saturday, came to a crashing end.

But Odili had something which Wike lacks: the wisdom not to make unnecessary enemies. Wike has a great talent for insulting and alienating friends and foes – not an asset in politics. It was in full display throughout the nomination contest. He mocked, he dismissed, he ridiculed, he taunted. His contempt for other contestants was withering. The other aspirants – Atiku, Saraki, Peter Obi, etc – as well as political foes in Rivers and traditional rulers all felt the rough edge of his rampaging tongue.

There is nothing new about insults in politics. Politicians, from Winston Churchill to Bola Ige were famous for their ability to leave gaping holes in the public image of their opponents with exquisitely crafted and impeccably delivered scorn. But for Wike, insults are not an occasional component of a strategy but a default device to hurt and humiliate anyone who catches his fancy.

The bottom line is that Wike would have found it difficult to muster the support and cooperation of many critical persons in the party if he had won. People rarely forget disrespectful, wounding statements.

Beating whoever APC decides as its candidate won’t be easy for Atiku. The ruling party has the edge in incumbency, resources and realpolitik. The last seven years have showcased APC’s many deficits in governance. Away from the cameras, many top shots are embarrassed about their party’s record.

Despite this, APC has also demonstrated that it has a more hardnosed and effective grasp of power and propaganda than its rivals. The Obi factor vs the unhappy south east and the many cleavages that dot the country will provide a fertile ground for sundry machinations.

But however hard things turn out for PDP, they would have been much harder if Wike had won.

PDP dodged a bullet.

Nwabuikwu is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board