Of Pre-election Engaged and Post-Election Enraged Voters

Mike Omilusi advances reasons for the abysmally low interest of registered voters in the political process

One noticeable trend about the current political dispensation/republic is that while the country is tending towards two-party system, as indicated by the electoral outing of the two dominant political parties (APC/PDP) since the 2015 elections, in spite of the growing number of political parties in every election cycle, there is also a seeming shift from voter apathy to outright voter boycott.Why large numbers of Nigerians continually refuse to participate in this most basic democratic process should naturally provoke concerns. Surely, there are many factors precipitating low turnout such as ease of voting, lack of credibility of political promises, disenchantment, institutional factors, mistrust of the political process, voter suppression, indifference or contentment, fear/insecurity, among others.In the 2019 general elections, over 55 million registered voters did not vote, marking the lowest voter participation since 1999 by way of percentage of actual voters against registered voters in each election cycle. In all, the lives of approximately 200 million people are being critically affected by the choices made by only 28 million voters. It also indicates that this category of voters is not substantially representative of the broader population of eligible Nigerian citizens. Since its return to electoral democracy in 1999, Nigeria’s elections have been characterized by voter apathy. Being a nascent democratic experiment over two decades ago, it was thus, regarded as one of the usual teething challenges. However, it has been a steady decline since then in spite of the perceived political awareness among the populace. Since 1999, voter turnout reached a peak of 69% in 2003 and has then continuously declined to a record-low of 35 percent in 2019. Yet, more than ever before, many Nigerian civil society groups are embarking on aggressive civic education and political mobilisation in the country. Many young persons, who appear to have keyed into the momentum, are daily exhibiting their political consciousness through the new media. In fact, modern technology seems to be a new incentive to broaden the scope of political participation among the Nigerian youth.  In many of the party meetings, rallies and conventions, this category of the population dominates attendance. Similarly, the religious space, across all divides, dispenses messages of citizen activism and value of electoral participation; more reason candidates and parties seek support from them during election. The hype with which election timetable is received and discussed among politicians, senior citizens, artisans, civil servants, businessmen and women also attests to the new willingness being generated about Nigeria’s electoral democracy. Of recent, my field observations on election days also reveal that vote trading significantly draws some of the ordinarily uninterested voters out of their cocoons; an incredible mobilisation strategy of sort! Yet, in many of the polling centres after accreditation, an average of two-thirds of registered voters stay at home expecting results of an electoral exercise in which they are not participants. Obviously, low turnout is an indictment on the legitimacy of the current system or democratic legitimacy that the election ought to generate. Given that turnout is a key factor in legitimizing governments, the more reason non-voters, especially those with a deep-seated ideological objection to voting, should not be dismissed as irritants or mere nonconformists because they also offer an important critique of not just the ruling party but also existing power structures. But why should eligible citizens discuss election issues, attend political rallies and meetings with so much gusto/enthusiasm, and often with seeming deep concern, yet fail to cast their ballots on election day?Though not peculiar to Nigeria, voter turnout has been declining in most developed countries over recent decades, its breadth and depth has however, reached a worrisome level in the country. In a democracy, there are problems with low turnout, but in Nigeria, one may draw inference from the observable evidence that many of its citizens may not have seen the utility of casting their ballots over the years. Generally, participation in politics manifests in various ways, ranging from engagement in formal political processes, such as voting in elections, to extra institutional behaviours, such as street protests or community meetings. It is usually influenced by a number of factors, including political ideology, efficacy, structural barriers, and demographics. In spite of the age-long motivations, voter apathy has become increasingly serious globally, indicative of the need to build a sustainable society with minimal voter apathy. Low turnout may indicate that democracy is not meeting citizens’ expectations, as earlier alluded to. Today, in Nigeria, the fact that electoral democracy is under stress can be measured from the voter behaviour, not only during elections but in post-election engagements. It also manifests in poor service delivery and inability to fulfil electoral promises or whether democracy has been able to address the challenges that people are wrestling with. The alarming level of corruption among politicians and technocrats under previous and present administrations, where billions of naira are flagrantly stolen without penalty, may have contributed to the growing apathy among Nigerian voters.As confidence and trust in politicians and public institutions progressively declined, so too has voter participation. Going by voter’s psychological disposition, which is measured by political efficacy, political interest, political trust and satisfaction with democracy, it is obvious that Nigerian voters have not felt any satisfaction in all these criteria. It suffices to say that political research considers political trust to be a prerequisite for a healthy democracy. Electoral promises are often not kept in Nigeria which is an obvious challenge to the sanctity of the electoral process. Unfulfilled campaign promises remain a seemingly intractable challenge; perhaps because the process itself is extremely vulnerable to manipulation. Ambushing voters with the rhetoric of plans of action at the eve of every election year remains a constant ritual to formally legitimize party campaigns in the digital media and at heavily mobilized rallies, often with limited substance. Each election precipitates frenetic mobilisation of the people but the promised social contract is ephemeral. Hence, successive ruling parties project bogus policy blueprints but continually fail to represent Nigerians’ concerns or meet their needs. The 2019 elections, for instance, did not reflect what the social contract stands for – the implicit, mutual bargaining over what citizens expect from the state, and what the state can legitimately demand of citizens in return – as electioneering campaigns did not provide the space for social contract bargaining.It is also argued that when people are not strongly committed to a goal, seeing apathy in others triggers and reinforces apathy in them but when people are strongly committed to a goal, seeing apathy in others fuels their commitment. In other words, apathy is an emotional contagion with dual effects. In Nigeria, many people who do not vote believe they do not understand enough about the government, the election process or individual party policies and they easily convince friends, neighbours, community associations and relatives, through their nonchalant attitudes, on the futility of previous ballots. Millions of people remain undecided right up to the end, and millions more are influenced by the prevailing apathy to simply give up.There is no silver bullet for increasing turnout—a mix of strategies would need to be pursued, each (on their own) with incremental effects. As a starting point within the context of a developing country like Nigeria where the mass of the electorate are disenchanted, the need arises for government at all levels to make life meaningful for the people by fulfilling its electoral promises and engage them in decision-making process. Electoral reforms would help encourage participation, but so would visible improvement in governance and socioeconomic outcomes.Improving the electorate’s representativeness and understanding of policy issues is also very germane. Similarly, providing information on how well politicians and political parties deliver on promises can help voters make more informed decisions and can also create forums for engagement on political issues. This will not only create a sense of belonging among the voters but invigorate/activate the latent patriotism in them.  Nigeria can capitalize on 21st century technology to automatically register voters and update their registration information, without any need for the outmoded bureaucracy being employed at every election cycle. As a matter of fact, in a report by Nonprofit Vote, it identifies Automatic Voter Registration (AVR), same-day registration, and vote-by-mail policies as significant enablers, if not motivators, of high turnout. While the American society in which the research was conducted is different from Nigeria’s, there is no rocket science in implementing the first two policies- Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) and same-day registration- in the country to encourage voters.Lastly, it is expected on a broader level, that the political leadership should build and sustain the institutions of governance, diversify the economy, create jobs for the burgeoning and youthful population, invest in the education and health of the people and reduce abject poverty in the country with a view to impacting positively on the living standard of the people. With these deliverables, the people will have cause to adduce rational basis for their current and future civic engagement through voting and express, through their actions, trust in political institutions.