Make or Mar Battle for APC’s Presidential Ticket

After weeks of horse-trading, the Special National Convention of the All Progressives Congress takes off tomorrow amid intense political permutations that will determine the future of the ruling party and the country, Gboyega Akinsanmi writes
At last, the APC is set for its special national convention, which begins tomorrow. Like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) did fortnight ago, its delegates, three from each of the 774 local government areas nationwide, will converge on Abuja to elect their flag bearer for the 2023 presidential election.

At least 28 aspirants originally obtained the party’s nomination and expression of interest forms as a condition to participate in the primary. Of this figure, however, five withdrew from the contest for diverse reasons, leaving only 23 aspirants, who had gone through the screening, to face the delegate election.

Already, the leaders of the legacy parties that established APC in February 201 have been jostling for the party’s nomination. They include the APC National Leader, Senator Bola Tinubu; former Minister of Science and Technology, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu; the immediate past governor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha and former Minister of Transportation, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, who later led New PDP to APC.

Also, the entry of the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo; Senate President; Dr. Ahmed Lawan; Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi; Senior Pastor, Citadel Global Community Church, Dr. Tunde Bakare; Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi; former Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba; Jigawa State Governor, Mohammed Badaru, among others, into the race has made the race more contentious and controversial than ever expected.

Amid these highly convoluted interests, different blocs in the hierarchy of the APC have been projecting their choice candidates. As shown in politicking recently, nearly all the blocs have also been lobbying President Muhammadu apparently to secure his buy-in for their candidate, one factor, they believe, will swing the pendulum of the nomination to their sides if guaranteed.

The first bloc comprises northern conservatives, who were rooting for former President Goodluck Jonathan to seek re-election this time on the platform of the APC. Jonathan’s choice is largely championed by entrenched cabals, who always believe the presidency is the right of the north. Buhari’s uncle, Alhaji Mamman Daura, as some party leaders have claimed, is the face of this bloc.

As analysts have argued, this option gained traction because Jonathan, a first-term president, would only complete his second term and return the presidency to the north. However, the plan suffered a setback on two grounds. First, his candidature might not stand the test of laws if subject to higher judicial interpretation despite obtaining a court order to seek reelection. Second, as Fayemi recently faulted it, the membership status of the former president in the APC could not be established.

Suddenly, another bloc within the APC came up with the option of the incumbent senate president. In particular, the Chief Whip of the Senate, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu has been at the core of Lawan’s aspiration. He even dropped his presidential aspiration for him on the premise that in the interest of justice and equity, the next president should come either from the South-east or the North-east, two geo-political zones that have not produced a president before.

The push for Lawan’s aspiration spread like wildfire after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerged the flag bearer of the PDP. With Atiku on the ballot, pro-Lawan campaigners argued, the APC may not win the 2023 presidential race if it nominates one of its southern aspirants as the flag bearer.

This option obviously breaches an understanding that the presidency should return to the south in 2023 and arguably to the ranks of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the biggest legacy party that formed the APC. Also, it is the sole reason the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum rejected Atiku’s candidature, which it believed, was a ploy by the north to retain the presidency beyond 2023.

Contrary to the argument of pro-Lawan campaigners, as shown in the country’s electoral records since 1979 have shown, southern candidates have defeated northern candidates in the previous presidential contests. In 1993, for instance, the flag bearer of the Social Democratic Party, Chief M.K.O. Abiola defeated his frontline rival from the defunct National Republican Convention, Alhaji Bashir Tofa. In 2011, also, Jonathan as the PDP candidate defeated Buhari, who contested the race on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, the second biggest legacy party that formed APC.

As Lawan’s aspiration remains a factor that may cause upset in the quest for the southern presidency, a bloc within the presidency has been pushing for Osinbajo against the will of Tinubu, his political godfather of over two decades. This bloc has leveraged its campaign on the need for continuity, which according to its proponents, is central to completing and preserving the achievements of Buhari.

Likewise, the proponents of continuity have been exuding an unduly high degree of confidence that Osinbajo has already garnered Buhari’s nod. But by Wednesday, this claim will be proven, especially now that Buhari has been pushing a doctrine of reciprocity as a mark of recognition from the state governors to allow him anoint his successor since he never worked against clinching return tickets or installing successors in their states.

The last comprises all the state governors. Across all political divides, the governors agreed to an understanding to install one of their own as the next president. As a strategy, as some observed, they are seeking control of the presidency to enable them address gnawing issues affecting their states. This plan has already fallen through in the PDP. It is yet to be seen if it will hold sway in the APC.

Like the case of their colleagues in the PDP, the APC governors are now deeply polarised, rooting for presidential hopefuls of their choice. On the one hand, a group of progressive governors led by Kebbi State Governor, Alhaji Atiku Bagudu initially supported Fayemi’s aspiration as Buhari’s successor. But this scheme crashed when Badaru, once rooting for Fayemi as Buhari successor, decided to throw his hate into the ring of presidential contest.

On the other hand, another group of progressive governors has been standing with Tinubu, who as they have argued at different times, has been an asset to the APC from its formation to date. The governors in this category cut across nearly all geo-political zones, especially the North-east and South-west

With less than 48 hours to the decision time, none of these blocs is confident of pulling through its plan to secure Buhari’s approval for its presidential hopeful. This became clearer just after the president addressed the progressive governors before he departed the country for Spain last Tuesday on an official visit.

At the meeting with the governors, specifically, Buhari introduced the doctrine of reciprocity into the lexicon of presidential contests in the country. He premised the doctrine on what he described as the party’s established internal policies that promote continuity and smooth succession plans.

The president first justified this doctrine on the ground that he had encouraged first-term governors who served credibly to stand for re-election. He also explained how he had allowed second-term governors to promote their own successors without interference from the presidency.

Contingent on his resolve not to interfere with what happened at the levels of state and local governments, Buhari demanded the reciprocity of the governors and stakeholders to pick his own successor, who according to him, would fly the flag of the APC for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023.

Already, Buhari’s demand has been generating dissension not just in the rank of the APC, but also in the public space at large. With this position, as some presidential hopefuls have observed, the process of nominating the flag bearer of the APC has been compromised before the contest.

Across the public space, it is believed, Buhari’s responsibilities under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 does not include anointing a successor. Specifically, in his argument, former President of Nigerian Bar Association, Chief Joseph Daudu likened Buhari’s request for reciprocity to a coup d’etat, which flagrantly violated Section 1(1)(2) of the 1999 Constitution in all ramifications.

Daudu’s position also corroborates deep-seated discontent across the hierarchy of the APC. With Buhari’s interference, they believe, the process can no longer be credible. If it turns out to be flawed eventually, the ruling party will unequivocally face an uncertain future like the cases of PDP when late President Umaru Yar’Adua emerged the flag bearer in 2007 by fiat rather than credible process.