2023: It’s Back to Regional Politics

 THEFRONTLINES

As political activities heat up in the run-up to 2023, at the conclusion of the various parties’ primary, a clear pattern is already emerging. and showing that today’s politicking has assumed a regional hue rather than one that should strengthen our unity in diversity. No thanks to President Muhammadu Buhari’s winner takes all brand of politics.

As Nigeria prepared for independence in 1960, frontline negotiators for Nigeria’s independence insisted right from 1951 to 1959 that regional autonomy was to be retained. Thus, almost all the parties put together in preparation to form a new independent government were region-based.

The first semblance of a pan-Nigerian party was the one formed by Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe – National Council of Nigeria and the Camerouns (NCNC). It drew membership from across Nigeria, majorly in the eastern region and parts of the Camerouns. In the north, the major political party then was the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) promoted by the Sarduana of Sokoto, it was populated by the people of Fulani and Hausa extration in the north.. In the West, Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group (AG) held sway drawing majority of its members from the Yoruba-speaking tribe and perhaps the midwest.  

With these regional fortifications, these three parties went into the 1959 general election but could not produce an outright winner to form a new government. The lesson from that election was clear: no single ethnic group or political bloc or region can win a general election in Nigeria. The reality forced the NCNC and NPC to go into an alliance to form government in 1960 with Ahmadu Bello emerging as the Prime Minister and Azikiwe as the President.

Then barely six years on, the military struck bringing to an end the democratic experiment and the establishment of military rule. When the civil war broke out following the eastern region’s (Biafra) secession bid led by Col. Odimegwu Ojukwu, then Military Head of State, Yakubu Gowon dismantled the regional structure and created 12 states to replace the regions.  

The years that followed were dominated by military rule led by officers from the north until 1979 when General Olusegun Obasanjo returned Nigeria to civil rule. President Shehu Shagari who won the popular vote on the platform of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was sworn in and he began his first term in office.

The 1979 democratic experiment was a remarkable departure from the early regional parties even though Azikiwe had now formed a new party, the Nigeria People’s Party (NPP) jettisoning the NCNC, Awolowo’s AG also transformed into the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). What was apparent at this point was that the promoters of these parties were aiming at positioning their parties to gain national appeal and acceptance.

It was the NPN that first got its act right by building a bridge across the Niger River. With Shagari as the flagbearer, the party looked east to pick Alex Ekwueme as his vice president. That immediately gave the party momentum in both the north and east during the election proper and success in the end after Richard Akinjide come down with 2/3 of 19 states’ argument.

The military struck again in 1983 ending all political activities and was in power till 1999 when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo took the reins of power. Obasanjo was benefiting from the annulment of June 12, 1993, presidential polls widely believed to have been won by late Chief Moshood Abiola. His emergence was to placate not only the southwest but also the entire south.

In 1999, only two major parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that fielded Obasanjo and the All people’s Party (APP) fielding Chief Olu Falae had candidates all from the south for the purpose of healing the wounds of June 12. Yet, their deputies were northerners for the sake of creating a balance and giving the north a sense of belonging.

From 1999 to 2015, there appears to have been an unwritten agreement that power should shift between the two power blocs of north and south. Indeed, in the build-up to 1999, the G-34 which later transformed into the PDP deemed it necessary that it adopted power rotation between the north and south for equity and fairness and it never deviated from that agreement. Under Obasanjo, Atiku was his deputy; late Umaru Yar’Adua picked Goodluck Jonathan as his deputy while Jonathan picked Namadi Sambo from Kaduna as his deputy in 2011.

Buhari too picked late Chuba Okadigbo, an easterner in 2003; in 2007 Buhari chose Edwin Ume-Ezoke former speaker House of Representatives and an easterner. When he ran again in 2011, he pitched his tent with Pastor Tunde Bakare, a Yoruba man and when he finally won in 2015 after three previous failed attempts, his deputy was and is still a Yoruba man, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo. The essence of going down memory lane is to establish a pervading political trend that had engendered fairness and equity in the polity.

What has changed? Following Buhari’s emergence in 2015, he started a gradual policy of transforming the country into a fulani dynasty. He made sure that the Fulani dominated all the important positions in the public and private sectors including the military. Under him, Nigeria has never known the type of insecurity that pervades the country today.

From banditry, kidnapping, territorial occupation to all sort of criminal activities perpetrated by his tribesmen with the active connivance of the military, the administration has carried out as if nothing is happening. While the Indigenous People of Biafra are a terrorist group and need to be classified so by the international community, his tribesmen who are wreaking havoc in Kaduna south, Benue, Niger state, and almost all over the country including Miyetti Allah and Sheikh Gumi are saints and victims. They are the untouchables who need to be appeased for the wrong that previous administration has done them.

Now with just few months to the end of his administration and no possibility of perpetuating himself in power, Buhari sought to retain power in the north and annoint a candidate to succeed him. To succeed in his scheme, he drafted Abdullahi Adamu, a core northern hardliner as chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC). His mandate was to deliver Buhari’s annointed candidate through cansensus.

Unfortunately for Buhari and Adamu, when Senate President Ahmed Lawan was announced as the consensus candidate, 11 northern governors rejected him. They did not stop there, they also announced their preference for power to shift to the south for fairness and equity. The pronouncement by these courageous governors was the redeeming feature and high point of the APC convention and with that pronouncement, Bola Tinubu, who was instrumental to Buhari’s electoral success in 2015 emerged the party’s flagbearer.

Even with Tinubu’s emergence, those who had expected Buhari to openly support Tinubu without prompting were disappointed that the President could display such ingratitude towards a man who pulled his out of retirement and almost single handed gifted him the presidency using his resources and alliances.

In the PDP, the story is the same. Even with the subsisting unwritten agreement for power rotation between the two blocs, stakeholders in the party had envisioned that after Buhari, power ought to shift to the South. In their strategic thinking, since the south was to produce the party’s presidential candidate, the north should take the chairmanship position. It was the main reason why former chairman of the party Uche Secondus was bullied out of office to pave way for the current chairman, Iyorchia Ayu from the north.

Ayu first jettisoned the rotation clause choosing to throw the contest open to all the candidates including those from the north in what would have been an exclusively southern affair. Former Anambra governor, Peter Obi, sensing that all was not well, opted out and resigned from the party. He has now pitched his tent with Labour Party. In the primary election proper, Sokoto governor, Aminu Tambuwal stepped down for Atiku Abubakar in a strategic move that positioned Atiku, the only northerner left in the race after former finance minister, Shamsudeed Usman had stepped down for Atiku to win the ticket. Wike came second.

Today, the various contenders have taken positions and hoping to rely firmly on regional backings to make headway in 2023. Atiku is banking on the north for support and the south south and south east where his deputy, Ifeanyi Okowa has roots. Tinubu is banking on his traditional south west turf like Awolowo first and hoping to build bridges and alliances with the governors in the north. Former Kano governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has Kano under his belt and seeking to build an alliance with Obi’s Labour Party.

The only politician so far that is gaining momentum nationally rallying the youths and adults on a daily basis with his brand of messaging is Peter Obi. Apart from the south east backing him, he has a huge followership of the catholics and social media enthusiasts. If the elections were to be held today, Obi even without the so called political structure would create a major upset.

So what does regional politics leave us as a people? It divides rather than unify us. As it stands, musicians, footballers, nollywood artistes and social media influencers have gone regional and supporting their own. The Yoruba are rooting for Tinubu, the Igbo and catholics are rooting for Obi, northerners are rooting for Kwankwaso and Atiku. In the end, just like it happened in the 60s, no single bloc would be able to win nationally to form a government. With the deplorable state of affairs in the country today, what Nigerians need is a unifier. A person widely accepted pan-Nigeria regardless of your tribe, religion and class. That person must feel what Nigerians feel, must be ready to provide hope in our highly despondent country. Any message short of that is an exercise in futility.