FAO: Global Agricultural Production to Increase by 1.1% in 2031

Gilbert Ekugbe

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have predicted that global agricultural production would increase by 1.1 per cent every year over the next decade.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 stated that the additional output would be mainly produced in middle- and low-income countries, which indicated wider access to inputs and showed that increased productivity-enhancing investment in technology, infrastructure and training would be critical drivers of the expected growth in agricultural production.

The report, however, stated that a prolonged increase in energy and agricultural input prices – such as fertilisers would raise production costs and may constrain productivity and output growth in the coming years.

The outlook highlighted the significant contribution of agriculture to climate change. Direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6.0 per cent during the next decade, with livestock accounting for 90 per cent of this increase.

In addition, agricultural emissions was projected to grow at a lower rate than production, thanks to yield improvements and a reduction in the share of ruminant production, indicating a decline in the carbon intensity of agriculture.

Greater efforts would be needed for the agricultural sector to effectively contribute to global reductions in GHG emissions, as set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change, including large-scale adoption of climate-smart production processes and technologies, especially in the livestock sector.

It said that the global agrifood sector faces fundamental challenges over the coming decade, particularly the need to feed an ever-increasing population in a sustainable manner, the impacts of the climate crisis and the economic consequences and disruptions to food supply linked to the war in Ukraine.