2023:  The Potholes on Their Paths

Eddy Odivwri 

In politics, they say, one day is too long a time for dynamics to change. So, with the general elections still about eight full months away, a lot could yet change.

But as at today, each and every of the frontline contenders for the presidency of the country has some hitches and gallops to scale over. For the purpose of this write-up, I shall focus my assessment on just three political parties. It is their flagbearers I have described as frontline contenders. In no particular order, they include the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi. 

Except something remarkable jolts the political process, the next president of the country will be produced from any of the three political parties. The crowd of the remaining political parties are just going to serve as justifying the contest as democratic, given the many parties who would be angling for the crown, even when they know that they don’t quite stand a chance.

For the candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, there is no doubt that his victory at the APC presidential primary (where he scored 1,271 votes) was quite outstanding as he markedly had an across -the-board support, causing him to trounce all 13 others in the contest. Even his runner up, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi came a distant second with 316 votes.

But about a month after the contest, although the rank of the Emi lokan maestro has been swelling, the draw back in the camp is that Bola Tinubu, beside not having his primary and secondary school  certificates, has not been able to scale over the choice of his running mate. He appears both confused and in a dilemma over who to pick. The calculations have become complex, especially as the twin considerations of region and religion have become core. This actually forced the APC presidential candidate to name an interim character, a certain man, now described as Place Holder, (the certificate-less) Mr Ibrahim Masari, pending when a final decision has to be taken. But by last Wednesday, some persons had gone to court demanding that Masari should never be substituted, as there is no “Place Holder” in the constitution.

 But as the days and weeks go by, the candidate still looks fixated in confusion. Perhaps when he returns from his trip to France this weekend, he would have a solution to this nagging problem.

 Now there is a contention between North-west and North-east on which zone should produce the running mate. Will it be Gov Nasir El Rufai or will it be Senator Kashim Shettimah or Prof Babgana  Zulum?

While the northwest has been getting all the plum positions including the presidency (Shagari, Yar’Adua, –Namadi Sambo as VP to Jonathan–, Buhari), the North east has barely gotten any, save the first republic Tafawa Balewa (as Prime Minister). The North west appears to be the oppressive region/enclave of the north

More than the issue of which region the running mate should come from, is the more critical factor of religion.  A Muslim-Muslim ticket appears like a big risk, as it appears a very sensitive and touchy issue in the Nigerian polity. Many Christians are sorely vexed with the idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, yet the party is concerned about the electoral worth of whoever is chosen. “is it not better to have a Muslim-Muslim ticket that can win election, than having a Muslim-Christian ticket that will lose election?”, asks some party chieftains who believe that “there is nothing wrong with a Muslim-Muslim ticket”. 

 Already, it is causing disquiet in the APC and Tinubu is as undecided as he is confused. 

Thankfully, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said that the parties have between July 15 and August 12 to withdraw candidates whose names had been earlier submitted to INEC.  

In the Atikulated camp of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the party actually appears articulated as it seems stuck in a messy controversy over the choice of a running mate. Indeed, the worrisome quiet that followed the choice of the running mate few weeks ago, has now given way to the ruckus grumbling, complaints and hard-headedness  threatening to not only tear down the PDP, but to also send it further away from the corridors of power and reckoning in the country.

Many had hailed the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar for his decisive action of picking his running mate, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, the governor of Delta State, against the better-favoured, but erratic and boisterous  Gov Nyesom Wike of Rivers State. But about two weeks after the choice, the party is already boiling. Fourteen out of a 17-man committee set up to advise Atiku on who to choose as a running mate was said to have favoured Wike, but perhaps fearing the garrulousness and explosive nature of Gov Wike, Atiku had settled for a more predictable, level-headed Gov Okowa. 

Rather than move forward, the party has since been thrown into the cesspit of controversy, tension and uncertainty. Wike, till now has remained silent. It took the outburst of Gov Samuel Ortom of Benue State (where Wike declared for the presidency), for people to realise that the quiet that followed the choice of a running mate was only the peace of the graveyard: it held more fright than normal peace can provide. Ortom’s outburst was closely followed by Ayo Fayose, former governor of Ekiti State who has continued to argue and insist that the PDP cannot be fielding a candidate from the north, just yet. He believes that it is the turn of the South to produce the president of the country, after the eight year rule of President Muhammadu Buhari (by 2023).

 Perhaps, Fayose’s arguments makes some sense, especially as the same northern region now has the Presidential candidate, Atiku (Adamawa State); the National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu (Benue State), and the BOT Chairman, Walid Jubrin (Nasarawa State). 

The fume in the party is causing the party to lose steam faster than a leaking exhaust. Matters are not helped by the foreign trip of Atiku himself, who seems ensconced from the upheaval rocking the party. First, he was said to have gone to Dubai (from where he sent pictures of a Picnic image of himself in shorts and shirt), and then later to Germany where he was said to have gone for medicals. Till the time of writing this column, Atiku is yet not back, even though he had vowed to unify the party.

His absence at such a critical moment of turbulence in the party  seems to suggest some unseriousness on the part of the party.

Efforts by Atiku’s emissary to meet Gov Wike in Turkey last week, were said to have been rebuffed by Wike himself. 

Wike has remained worrisomely quiet and unusually reticent.

The PDP BOT Chair, Jubrin has said a delegation of party chieftains led by Atiku himself and with Gov Okowa shall go visit Wike for reconciliation, to beg him not to leave the PDP. But knowing Wike, where else can he really go?

Although not much details have been given further, some Wike’s supporters are demanding that for the reconciliation to make sense, then Gov Okowa must be dropped as the running mate to Atiku. I hardly think that will make sense. It has also been rumoured that Gov Wike has refused to have a One-on-One discussion with Atiku on the matter. That will simply lead the party to a jinxed junction. 

The prerogative of who should be the running mate should be that of the flagbearer himself and not necessarily that of part-led committees. So If Atiku has settled for Okowa, for the sake of compatibility, so be it. Wike must be sportsmanly enough to realise that political contest is like a gamble: you either win or lose.

 But more than the issue of running mate, some persons in the party are also demanding that Dr Ayu should step down as the chair of the party, not only because he has shown signs of bias (by hailing Gov Tambuwal of Sokoto State, who betrayed Wike, as the ‘hero of the convention’, two days after the May 28 PDP presidential primary), but also because the north seems “over-represented” in the top hierarchy of the party. 

In all, the PDP has got several rivers to cross in its journey to reclaim presidential powers. How well and swiftly it swims across the rivers will determine whether or not it can get the power back. Time is ticking away.

In the bubbling Obi-dient community of supporters in the Labour Party (LP), the problem of a viable and politically savvy running mate from the north also seems to be the pothole on the path of the party.

There is no doubt that the rave of support for the LP candidate, Peter Obi is catching on like a fuel-powered fire flame, but political pundits are worried that his inability to choose or name a worthy running mate, preferably from the northern region, is a problem.

In order to beat the INEC deadline, Obi had merely named Dr Doyin Okupe as a Place Holder running mate.

Until early this week, many had looked forward to the planned merger or alliance talks between the LP candidate and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) presidential candidate, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Dr Doyin OKupe, last Tuesday on a Television show declared the alliance talks as “dead”.

Before his declaration, Kwankwaso himself had maintained that he cannot be a running mate to anybody, including Peter Obi; rather it should be the other way round. The persuasion to Kwankwaso to bulge yielded no fruit. Many believe that the duo—Obi and Kwankwaso would have been a good pair given the seeming ethno-religious balance the two would have achieved.

Political watchers believe also that Kwankwaso was unduly arrogant and self-conceited to assume that because he had held more political/public offices, then he should be the candidate and Obi, with train loads of supporters across board, should be the running mate. 

Yes, Kwankwaso had been almost everything, from Deputy Speaker of the House of Reps, Senator, Governor, minister, Ambassador etc., his presidential aspiration does not resonate with Nigerians outside Kano State and a few northern states. He is largely perceived as a regional political giant. How many people in Bayelsa State or Osun State, for instance, can relate with a Kwankwaso?

The same cannot be said of Obi whose phenomenal support base has been getting larger and larger by the day. 

Even then, Obi had said he would prefer a younger running mate and not an old recycled politician.

Senator Datti Baba-Ahmed,46, an economist and founder of Baze University, from Kano State, is among the persons being considered as Obi’s running mate.

Yes, it is true that the popularity of Peter Obi has not been tested at the ballot, yet the enthusiasm and zeal with which young Nigerian professionals—including lawyers, activists, unemployed youths and adults alike are keying into the Obi-dient Movement is amazing. Many of them have volunteered the building of LP website, grassroot mobilisation etc., all to enlarge the support base of the candidate across every state of the federation.

In all, who will become the running mate remains a hurdle that the Obi-dient political force will have to scale.