Surmounting Hurdles to 2023 National Census

Development

Determined to break the jinx over the conduct of a credible national census, and in response to the yearnings of various stakeholders, the current administration is working towards a national enumeration exercise fixed for 2023. However, there are concerns that several hurdles including the crippling security situation in many parts of the country, the fear of the politicisation of the exercise taking place in an election year, and the high cost of organising a credible census may mar the exercise unless Nigerians learn from the past, reports Festus Akanbi

As the National Population Commission (NPC) continues with the sensitisation of the Nigerian population on the proposed national census, concerned stakeholders have continued to express reservations over the timing, preparation, and the pervading atmosphere of insecurity in the land.

Recently, the federal government revealed it is conducting the national population census in April 2023 and that the exercise will gulp over N190billion. This is the first time such an exercise will be taking place in 17 years. 

The idea of a census was mooted in 2021 but it had to be shelved as a result of the overwhelming security breaches in many parts of the country. 

The last time Nigeria conducted the exercise was in 2006 and the country’s population was put at 140.43 million – 71.3 million males and 69.0 million females. 

A population census is a process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing, publishing, and disseminating the demographic characteristics of a country at a specified time.

It is best conducted every 10 years to reflect the population dynamics. Analysts said a good census should be able to show changes in fertility, mortality, migration, and the labour force, adding that the socio-economic situations must be captured and it should give the age and sex structure of the population. 

Census data should also provide reliable information on the population size at national, sub-national, and lower administrative levels. 

Controversies

The previous exercises were trailed by controversies. According to reports, 1962, 1963, 1973, and 1991 censuses were bedeviled. People complained of deliberate manipulations of census figures at sub-national levels. Unfortunately, the 1973 census further divided Nigerians along ethnic lines as various groups raised allegations of data falsification.

In 1991, the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida had another try at a population count. This time, after some delay, the figures were officially announced in March 1992—there were just under 89 million people in the country. Fifteen years later, in 2006, another census was conducted and the population was announced to have grown by more than 50% to 140 million.

The 2006 census did not fair better as it failed a credibility test. For instance, the Lagos State government rejected the figures and ran a parallel census. 

Critics alleged that the 2006 census was fraught with manipulation by the political class which was reflected in the composition of the  38-member board of the population commission. 

The Build-up to the 2023 Census

Explaining the measures put in place to organise a successful census exercise in 2023, Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Alhaji Nasir Isa Kwarra, said that a total of 7,718 Enumerated Areas (EAs’) have been selected for the Trial Census which was to run from June 27 to July 30, adding that the exercise is to test run suitability and readiness for the upcoming 2023 Population and Housing Census.

He explained that the “census dress rehearsal”, is a process in which all census operations are tested in a detailed and comprehensive manner about a year before the actual census data to assess the different scenarios that may be presented during the main census.

“As you are aware, the commission has carried out the demarcation of the entire land mass of Nigeria into small Enumeration Areas that can be covered by a team of enumerators, and the first and second pretests to test the census instruments.

“The trial census will test all aspects of census operations, from planning to implementation including logistics arrangement and management, questionnaire design and format, training procedures, fieldwork operations, publicity, payment system, data processing, data tabulations, and analysis.”

According to the chairman, some states have been selected for full LGA enumeration to test challenges around complete coverage under various scenarios such as in hard-to-reach areas, special populations, and rural-urban settings.

The six local government areas that he said will be fully enumerated were, Toungo Local Government Area, Adamawa State – North-east; Daura Local Government Area, Katsina State – North-west; Karu Local Government Area, Nasarawa State – North-central. Others were, Imeko-Afon Local Government Area, Ogun State – South-west; Idemili South Local Government Area, Anambra State – South-east; Brass Local Government Area, Bayelsa State – South-south.

For the remaining 30 states and the FCT, 45 enumerated areas have been selected from nine LGAs each that cut across three senatorial districts of those states.

“The selection of the coverage areas has been scientifically and purposively carried out to achieve the objectives of the Trial Census. The selection of samples from all states of the federation and the FCT is expected to yield nationwide information on state-specific issues that may arise for the next census and come up with possible solutions for addressing these challenges.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the Trial Census is not the actual enumeration of persons for the 2023 Population and Housing Census. In other words, the outcome of the Trial Census will not form the basis of the 2023 Census. Data generated during the Trial Census will not be used to arrive at figures for the 2023 Census, which is going to be zero-based and from information collected in April 2023,” he explained.

According to a senior lecturer in political science, at Obafemi Awolowo University, Dr. Hope Ikedinma, since Nigeria attained political independence in 1960, all efforts at conducting population census have met with serious problems. Consequently, planning for the socio-economic development of the nation has been adversely affected by the inadequacy, obsolesce, and unreliability of available demographic data. Past national development plans have failed partly because of a lack of demographic data for planning.

Call for Accurate Census

Analysts therefore believed, there is a need for an accurate, reliable, and acceptable population census for the country. This concern has become of even greater significance in the face of the dynamism of modern-day socio-economic planning both at the macro and micro levels.

 The United Nations (UN), which recommends that a national census be conducted at least every 10 years, indeed maintains that enumeration is desirable for reliable data that provides a guide for national planning for any country. But mindful of the Nigerian environment and the history of the national census, there are already apprehensions that should not be dismissed by the authorities.  

While making a case for the conduct of a credible census, THISDAY, in a recent editorial stressed that the demographic data that the census provides is critical for national development. 

 The editorial explained that data from the census are useful in sectoral planning and influence the direction of government priorities.

“These demographic details are critical ingredients for sound national planning when they are products of empirical analysis via properly executed census exercises rather than estimates. By the National Population Commission’s (NPC) current estimate, the county’s population had risen to 193.39 million people. But in its ‘State of the World Population 2021’ report, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimated Nigeria’s population to be 211.4 million. Based on that UNFPA report, Nigeria’s population increased by 2.6 per cent from 2015 to 2021. It also projected life expectancy for Nigerian men at 54 years and that of women, at 56. But all these are projections that may not reflect the reality.”  

Challenges to Credible Census

It, however, pointed out that as much as Nigeria urgently needs a good headcount, it could also be concluded that a country that is facing existential security challenges may find it difficult to conduct a credible national census. 

“And it would amount to a waste of scarce national resources if such an exercise does not achieve the desired goals,” it added. 

Analysts have also contended that a national census in an election year may be a recipe for crisis based on Nigeria’s chequered history. According to them, beyond security consideration which appears to be the most potent inhibiting factor to the proposed 2023 national census, the question is how do we guarantee that the conduct of a headcount during a period of the general election will not be politicised? 

With ethnic/sectional cleavages very pronounced and geopolitical tensions rife, how do we conduct a census which will produce an outcome that is both credible and acceptable?   

Analysts believed the onus lies on the federal government to calm the fray nerves by ensuring proper things are done in the run-up to the census exercise.

The correlation between national planning and census has underscored the urgency of a national enumeration to make planning easy. It enables realistic and achievable decisions to be taken. The private sector looks for a stable and sympathetic environment in which to invest securely and profitably. A national plan provides the evidence to make positive decisions. These will be a good starting point for the incoming administration.