2023: How Much Weight Can Obi/Baba-Ahmed Ticket Pull?
Emameh Gabriel writes on the chances of Labour party’s presidential standard bearer, Peter Obi and running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, ahead of the 2023 general elections
After days of marathon meetings and horse-trading, Labour Party’s presidential standard bearer, Peter Obi, last week finally settled for veteran politician and former Senator representing Kaduna North, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, as his running mate for the 2023 presidential election.
This came few days after the proposed alliance between Labour Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso-led New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) crashed due to disagreement between the two parties over who carries the banner for the presidential contest.
Baba-Ahmed’s name as Obi’s running mate surfaced barely 24 hours after former presidential spokesperson and Director-General, Peter Obi Campaign Organisation, Doyin Okupe, announced his withdrawal as the vice-presidential candidate of the party.
In line with the provisions of the Electoral Act, political parties have up till July 25 to substitute names where necessary of their presidential and vice presidential candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC].
Last week, before naming his running mate, Obi said he would prefer a younger person as his vice-presidential candidate. Datti (46) met the category Obi said he was scouting for. His credentials as a former chairman, Senate Committee on Finance and a successful businessman are expected to help Obi drive a campaign already anchored on economy.
By the choice of Datti, Obi is making history running with a northern Muslim, though on different platforms and different positions. The former Anambra State governor was Atiku’s running mate in the 2019 presidential election on the platform of the main opposition PDP, an election they lost to President Muhammadu Buhari’s ruling All Progressive Congress (APC).
The decision was, in part, a political calculation to attract more votes from the Muslim community in the north to balance the confidence of his sympathisers in the region, while the party would largely concentrate in the Southeast where Obi hails from.
While Analysts are projecting a regional fragmentation in voting pattern with Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu making strong showing in the North, Obi’s support has also been growing in the region, thus picking a northern running mate would no doubt solidify his support beyond mere sentiment.
Speaking at the event last Friday, Obi, stressed that the unveiling of his running mate signals the party and his resolve in the journey to “take back Nigeria”.
He said: “It is good to be here today after weeks and months that we have gone round, consulted and searched around and looked for somebody who fits the bill of what we are trying to do.
“Today, I am proud to say I have been able to meet and secure somebody who is eminently qualified and fits the bill to be the Vice President of Nigeria.
“I know people will say you are not there yet, but I can tell you, I know where we are going”.
Obi continued: “This is our right to secure, unite and make Nigeria productive. And you can’t do that without having people who have similar visions, ideas and are prepared for the task. So, I have the honour today to present to you, God willing, Nigeria’s next Vice President in the person of Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed.
Obi earlier in an interview with AriseTV Morning Show said he wanted “people who can look me in the eye and disagree with me during cabinet meetings. People who have their own minds and ideas.
“If you agree with me in three meetings then you are gone because that means you don’t have your own ideas. I want people and cabinet members who can say ‘Mr. President, you are wrong”.
Obi had on May 27, 2022, joined the Labour Party few days after dumping the main opposition party PDP, saying he left the former party “because of issues that are at variance with my persona and principles”.
According to him: “For me, the process of achieving our goal is as fundamental as what one will do thereafter.
“Therefore, I have chosen a route that I consider to be in line with our aspirations and my mantra of taking the country from consumption to production; and that is the Labour Party which is synonymous with the people, workers, development, production, securing and uniting Nigerians as one family.
“I invite all Nigerians to join me in taking back our country. Be assured that I’ll never let you down.”
Baba-Ahmed is the founder of Baze University, one of the new generation universities in Abuja. The 46-year-old was a former lawmaker who represented Kaduna North Senatorial district. The economist cum politician served as Senator for Kaduna North from 2011 to 2012 and a member of the House of Representatives from 2003 to 2007.
Apart from being son-in-law to Lt General Aliyu Gasau (rtd), one of the northern oligarchs, he is also the younger brother of the spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed.
In his acceptance speech, Baba-Ahmed said his decision to accept the nomination was borne out of his commitment to rescuing Nigeria, noting that Obi and other Labour Party stakeholders also played a major role in his decision as he bought into their agenda and movement of getting Nigeria to where it should be.
He said: “My task here today is simple and it is to accept my nomination but just before I do that, I should give justifications as follows.
“The undeniable and unchallengeable fundamental reason for being on this ticket is to rescue Nigeria.
“And it goes logically without saying that you can only rescue that which is in trouble and Nigeria is in trouble and I cannot afford not to be part of the movement to rescue Nigeria.
“The second reason is that I believe in the greatness of Nigeria. I believe there will be peace and prosperity, and I believe Nigerian people will unite.”
Obi’s emergency as Labour Party’s presidential standard bearer has added a new flavor to the political atmosphere in the last few weeks, leaving the impression that for the first time since the merger that brought APC to power, the Labour Party has demonstrated some level of threats to the two major political parties in the country, making some observers to opine that it is the third force.
The choice of Baba-Ahmed has attracted wide commendations and at the same time, pockets of criticism in some quarters, even in Obi’s camp. Some analysts have warned that it would be foolish for anyone to underestimate Baba-Ahmed as he brings some wealth of experience into the vice presidential ticket.
The OBIdient movement now Obi-Datti movement continues to gain wide tractions across the country. It is the new song on the lips of the youth demographic, most of whom have never voted in the past, but the feeling of disenchantment among this group would cause anyone new in politics to believe that Obi will defeat any opponent at the polls.
The Nigeria Labour Congress ( NLC) and Trade Unions Congress of Nigeria (TUC) recently announced their support for Obi’s ambition saying he is their sole presidential candidate.
Analysts believe that NLC and TUC are a solid pair. They posited that the reality of Obi having much more national appeal after his exit from the PDP, also gives the feelings that if the tempo is maintained and baring any last minute twist or crack, he remains the man to beat.
They however argued that, though both Obi and Baba-Ahmed look good together, the concern is that they appeal to the same demographics, the young, educated and upwardly mobile class, most of whom are either undecided voters who are loyal to no camp, free to be swayed by inducement or inexperienced voters who may fade out before the election.
They further argued that Peter Obi’s running mate is a fine gentleman who ticks all the boxes. A fitting candidate for a renaissant Nigeria. But in the Nigeria of today, he may not have any electoral value.
Among the questions raised on what Baba-Ahmed brings to the table for Obi is that though he is sound, elections are, however, not academic competition. Is he politically and electorally solid? Is he a vote catcher?
Similarly, some observers still believe that beyond the social media hype that Obi, Baba-Ahmed and the Labour party have garnered overtime, they are not as grassrooted as their opponents, who are in power or have tasted power, using all the tricks and tools in the box at past election cycles and understand the sensitivities of the Nigerian voters, and can play it to their advantage when push comes to shove.
The 2023 election is however expected to come with much surprise, as a result of the disenchantment in some quarters by the dominant parties. While the Labour party is not expected to displace them in its entirety, the Obi – Baba-Ahmed alliance is expected to change the game and engender a shift in sentiment as campaigns and political advertisements enter full swing.
On his part, Convener of News for Peter Obi, Afam Ezenwafor, said it would be wrong and out of place for anyone to believe that Obi and Baba-Ahmed only appeal to a particular demography, noting that their acceptance cuts across the larger population.
He said: “I do not think that is the correct. They appeal to all the mix in the demographics. What may differ is the way the groups or classes you referenced express their acceptance and support for Peter Obi.
“The primary reason for this may not be far-fetched. They are the most affected by the state of the nation, which is squarely a function of leadership ineptitude. So they are desperate to see the country work.
“The other groups in the demographics that you did not mention are also “Obidient”. They may not be as vociferous and visible like the groups you mentioned in demonstrating their acceptance and support, said Afam who requested that “an opinion poll” should be conducted to authenticate his submissions.
“So, the presidential election may be seen to have been won by the Labour Party candidate Mr. Peter Obi for so many obvious reasons”, he boasted.
On what are their strengths and selling points, he said the strengths lie in “the organic followership and support that his (Obi) candidature have elicited across the country and beyond”.
“The turnouts for voter registration as we all have witnessed is unprecedented in the annals of our country’s chequered history. Despite all the odds and challenges associated with the exercise, the people have refused to give up
“Who did you think motivated the renewed spirit? And who do you think most the new registrants will vote for?”, Afam asked.
“The answers are very clear. He has the message of hope. He has proven beyond doubt that he has very sound knowledge of our economy. And has also demonstrated the willingness and readiness to fix the economy,” he added.
Similarly, National Youth Leader of the party, Eragbe Anslem, told THISDAY that 2023 would be a different ball game.
“Winning elections this time around will be based on effective Mobilization at the polling unit areas with agents deployment for effective votes recording and transmission
“Rigging will not find expression in 2023 as youth shall not tolerate any Electoral Malfeasance, noted Eragbe who stressed that the movement is beyond anyone but 85% of Nigeria youths who feel rejected by the system.
He said: “Demography is an important factor in electioneering campaigns and vote cast. Te youth of Nigeria no doubt constitute over 85% of the projected total vote cast for 2023 general elections. They have also agreed to effect a positive change that ultimately turn Nigeria from a consumption to production nation by engaging the numerous in job creation with productivity optimization.
“The OBIDIENT WAVE is a tsunami presently blowing on the national landscape carrying along the elderly also. “The campaigns have been defined perfectly with the arrival of the Labour Party’s Vice Presidential Candidate Baba-Ahmed as the running mate to Obi, the Party’s
