THE FURY AGAINST SINGLE FAITH TICKET 

The anger over the All Progressives Congress’ single faith presidential ticket is essentially political, writes Bolaji Adebiyi 

Since Bola Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, announced Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate during the Sallah holidays, the Christian community backed by some social critics has been up in arms against the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, which they argue is insensitive to the delicate religious diversity of the country. They are insisting that Tinubu must drop Shettima and balance his ticket with a northern Christian. 

That is not going to happen because the person they are talking to is not a frivolous or flippant politician who does not weigh his options rigorously before he makes his move. The current hoopla was anticipated long before he won the APC primary. Those who wanted to block him raised the issue earlier. They argued that being a southern Muslim might pose a problem if he won the nomination as it might be difficult to get a northern Christian with the political clout in the party to balance his ticket if the main opposition PDP fields a northern Muslim.  

He had responded that he had his winning strategy, explaining that what it would take to win was for his northern party men to mobilise their region where the party has 15 of the 19 governors, while they leave him to deliver the southern, particularly the South-west part of the country. 

With the emergence of Abubakar Atiku, a northern Muslim and former vice-president of the federation, as the flagbearer of the opposing PDP, and his choice of Ifeanyi Okowa, a southern Christian and governor of Delta State, as running mate, the anxiety in the APC and the arithmetical masturbation became heightened. The PDP in going up North against the southern clamour for the presidency was looking at the numbers just as Tinubu, who nominated Shettima his fellow Muslim. 

As of 24 January 2022, according to Independent National Electoral Commission’s record, the North had 44, 320, 558 voters while the South had 38, 023, 459 voters. The bulk of the voters are in the North-west with seven states, 20, 858, 539; followed by the South-west, 16, 940, 205. Next is North-central 13, 965, 108; South-south, 13, 936, 888; North-east, 11, 958, 501; and South-east, 9, 858, 539.  

In 2012 Tinubu reckoned that Buhari with weak platforms had retained an average of 11 million voters from essentially the North-west and a fraction of the North-east over three election cycles and that if a national platform could be erected for him to run on, he could win. His permutation was that a combination of the North-west and South-west ticket could do the magic. He, therefore, approached the serial electoral loser to rethink his decision to quit the stage. The result is well known. 

Such cold calculations are at play even now. In 2018, Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers State and of the PDP stock, told his party men that given their weak position, the strategic thing to do is forgo any sentimental attachment to zoning and face the reality of the numbers. He argued that to have a fighting chance to upstage the APC, it needed to look up North for its presidential candidate. His calculation was that since the PDP was strong in the South, the party could present a northern candidate that would seek to divide Buhari’s vote in the North while the PDP would lock down the South, particularly the South-east and the South-south. 

That permutation worked in 2011 for the PDP as Jonathan locked down the entire South, using Tinubu in the South-west, and forayed for votes in the North, particularly in the North-west where Namadi Sambo, his deputy came from. However, the PDP’s 2019 North-east (Atiku) / South-east (Peter Obi) failed largely because its numbers were inferior to the APC’s North-west (Buhari) / South-west (Yemi Osinbajo) returning ticket. Added to that was the sabotage by the South-east PDP politicians who refused to support Obi’s vice-presidency. 

The PDP by going North and selecting a Muslim despite the southern agitations for the presidency was no doubt looking at the over 44 million votes in that region that is dominated by Muslims. Atiku’s choice of a South-south Christian Ibo running mate aims to corner a large proportion of over 23 million of the more than 38 million southern votes (South-south, 13, 936, 888; and South-east, 9, 858, 539) that is largely Christian. 

With that PDP combination and projected numbers, Tinubu’s APC had no other choice than to respond strategically. Although his choice satisfies the southern clamour for the presidency, he is, however, a minority Muslim that may not be all that acceptable to his northern brothers. So, in the absence of a towering political northern Christian to mobilise the largely Muslim 44 million votes for him he needs a potent Muslim to do the job for him hoping that his largely cosmopolitan and liberal people in the South, particularly the South-west would show understanding. 

If that is the case, why go struggle for 11 million votes with Atiku in the North-east when he could lock down 20 million votes in the North-west? Again, it’s cold political calculations. He is hoping that Shettima would galvanise the four APC governors out of the six governors in that region to lock down their states’ votes, denying Atiku of any dominance, while Buhari and the six APC governors of the seven governors of the North-west would turn in the majority of the votes in that area for him. 

The Tinubu ticket strategy, therefore, is to lockdown the largely Muslim votes in the North (44 million) in addition to the 16 million in the South-west while scampering for the required 25 per cent in some states of the South-south and South-east.  

This is essentially a strategic projection. It might work, it might fail. Of course, the strategists would be foolish not to expect that the PDP would respond. Part of its response already is to mobilise public opinion against the single faith ticket with the Christian community providing itself as a willing tool. 

Meanwhile, the Christian leaders had initially made the case for a Christian president at the end of Buhari’s tenure. It might be pertinent to ask them why they are dissipating so much energy over the APC’s single faith ticket when they could easily mobilise their numbers behind a candidate of their faith on any of the other 16 political parties.  

Adebiyi, the managing editor of THISDAY Newspapers, writes from bolaji.adebiyi@thisdatlive.com