2023 Presidency: As Candidates Firm Up Their Tickets

Now that the main contenders for the office of Nigerian President come 2023 are known, and they have now picked their running mates, we thought that we could take a rest from politics until September 2022 when the Presidential campaign opens. Governance, which has been nothing to write home about, has practically ground to a halt, with politics taking the centre stage. 

Lack of Governance 

Almost five months later, ASUU is still on strike with no end in sight (our children have been home idle for so long; while their counterparts in other parts of the continent and the world have completed the 2021-2022 academic session, our children are barely halfway through), and we have one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children in the world – yet, Government is unconcerned about this sad state of affairs. This year alone, we are experiencing our second or third fuel shortage with long queues at the petrol stations across Nigeria, despite being a major oil producing country; Government could not care less about the hardship this has inflicted on the people, nor the decline in productivity that it has occasioned. 

These days, nobody in Nigeria is excluded from looking over their shoulders, given the state of insecurity that has permeated the country; Government is nonchalant and lackadaisical about it. I heard one of President Buhari’s spokesmen, Garba Shehu, during a television interview last week, still talking about Boko Haram having a hold of a few local governments in the North East when they assumed office in 2015 (according to him, which they were forced to relinquish upon this administration’s intervention), and that Nigeria is now a safer place! How can any right thinking person, let alone a Presidential spokesperson who is in the know, in all good conscience trivialise the state of our insecurity to that extent, telling barefaced lies? It gives the impression that the Presidency is not abreast, or prefers to turn a blind eye to what is going on in the country; Garba Shehu definitely sounded deluded and rather irritating. His statements smacked of insensitivity to the thousands of lives that have been lost across the country, including women and children and those who are going through untold hardship in captivity in the hands of terrorists/bandits/kidnappers – uncharitable, thoughtless, detached and unrealistic comments. In 2015, insecurity was predominantly restricted to the North East; today, it is nationwide – the Kaduna train attack, Owo Catholic Church massacre, Abuja Kuje Prison attack, violence and burning of Government installations in Imo State and kidnap of the Methodist Bishop in the South East, are examples of the widespread violence and insecurity that are being experienced across Nigeria today. No part of the country is spared from insecurity.

Marching orders, which will certainly not be obeyed, have been issued by President Buhari to the security agencies (it is impossible to forget how former Inspector General of Police, Idris Ibrahim Kpotum was issued marching orders to relocate to Benue State when they were suffering too many attacks from Herdsmen; he popped into Makurdi for just one day, and when his disobedience became public knowledge, he was neither sacked nor sanctioned for his omission or insubordination; on the contrary, he practically became the President’s shadow, travelling with him on various trips around the country). 

Economic development? That is impossible to achieve, without security. The International Oil Companies are dropping their interests in onshore oil assets, like hot potatoes. Whatever profit they were reaping from those assets, are obviously not worth the perils of insecurity, oil theft  and corruption. Ethnic and religious violence portrays a country as unstable, and also hinders any worthwhile investment, be it local or foreign; yet, Government does not seem worried. Unless of course, the face that Government shows to the public to preserve their honour and goodwill (which has been seriously eroded) and prevent public panic, is different from what really goes on on the inside.

The health facilities in the country are deplorable, so much so that the President and  Government officials, top the list of those who travel abroad on medical tourism – be it UK, USA, Germany, India, Egypt or Dubai. Constitutional crisis and lack of respect for the rule of law, are also the order of the day.

In short, many, if not most of the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy contained in Chapter II of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution), remained largely unfulfilled (not just by this administration, but previous ones too). For this administration, it’s three main campaign promises which are part and parcel of the said Chapter II of the Constitution, fighting corruption and insecurity, and improving the economy, have not been fulfilled. 

Running Mate Controversies 

However, instead of tackling the myriad of problems Nigeria is facing, those who should be so doing are still deeply enmeshed in political controversies, from choosing Party flag bearers to being concerned about the flag bearer choices of other Parties, to the dissension and bickering that has trailed the selection of the running mates. Some Governors have even turned to campaign managers of their flag bearers, thereby leaving governance in their States largely unattended to. 

In the case of the PDP which is the main opposition Party, governance is not too much of their concern presently, not on a national level anyway, since they are not at the helm of affairs. Apart from the initial objection of a Northern aspirant thereby jettisoning  the zoning formula of the PDP, the kick against the nomination of Dr Ifeanyi Okowa by some PDP Party members had to do with the failure to allow for internal democracy within their Party. That majority voted for Governor Wike to be selected, but the Presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, exercised the right endowed on him by virtue of Section 142(1) of the Constitution and chose Dr Okowa as his running mate instead, thereby ignoring the desire of the majority. Be that as it may, the optics of the selection of Dr Okowa as running mate, are not injurious to the eye.

As for the ruling APC, the choice of running mate, Alhaji Kashim Shettima (immediate past Governor of Borno State) who shares the same religion as the flag bearer, Senator Bola Tinubu aka ‘Emi lo kan’, is another matter. Section 142(1) of the Constitution which provides for the nomination of the Vice Presidential candidate, does not specify that a running mate cannot share the same religion as his Principal; both candidates are only mandated to be of the same political party. However, Section 224 of the Constitution provides that programmes, aims and objects of political parties shall conform to the provisions of Chapter II of the Constitution, which include federal character, promotion of unity, national integration, feeling of belonging and involvement among the various people in the Federation etc, while prohibiting discrimination on various grounds including religion  – see Sections 14 & 15 of the Constitution. Also, see the case of Ugwu v Ararume 2007 12 N.W.L.R. Part 1048 Page 367 at 441-442 per Tobi JSC on the meaning of the word shall in a statutory provision like Section 224; it is a command, it is mandatory.

It is rather sad that where we should be debating and comparing what value the candidates will add to the development of the country, and how they will proffer solutions to our seemingly insurmountable problems, instead the country is distracted and has gone into a frenzy about the religion of the APC ticket. For a country which is supposed to be secular by virtue of Section 10 of the Constitution, and practice federal character because of its heterogeneous nature (Section 14(3) & (4) of the Constitution), these two elements have completely taken us over. We hope that Nigeria is not edging dangerously close to Rwanda of 1994, or maybe even the European Crusades (series of religious wars) of the 11th – 15th centuries, between the Christians and Muslims.

With the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket, Christians all over the country (and some Muslims too), including APC Party members, have condemned Senator Bola Tinubu/APC’s choice of a Muslim running mate, especially given the religious tensions that Nigeria is presently facing. They consider it to be a huge slap in the face. I have even heard many comments like, “this Muslim-Muslim ticket is an attempt by APC to Islamise Nigeria”. I reiterate the fact that, people cannot be forced to embrace Islam by trick or by force. The Shahada, which is the First Pillar of Islam and profession of faith – declaration of the belief in the oneness of Allah and acceptance of Muhammad (PBUH) as God’s prophet, must be wilful, not by compulsion.  

Like I said on this page a few weeks ago, even though I fail to see how the mixed religious Muslim-Christian ticket we have presently, even with a Pentecostal Pastor as our Vice President, has doused the rising religious tension in the country (which is at a crescendo, I might add), the optics of a Muslim-Muslim ticket is bad, and is a cause for discomfort for millions of non-Muslim Nigerians. They probably find the concept of a mixed ticket soothing and safer, even if it hasn’t been particularly useful in recent times. There is a feeling that the fact that we have a mixed ticket will be a check on religious bigotry, no matter how little or ineffective a check it may be.  

Strategies? Questions 

But, if you and I know how unwelcome a Muslim-Muslim ticket would be in today’s Nigeria, then surely, Senator Bola Tinubu who is said to be a political master-strategist, would be more aware than we are, of the damage the choice of a Muslim running mate could do to his chances. It seems unlikely that someone would risk flushing their life ambition down the drain, in order to satisfy some ethnic and religious megalomaniacs (see Section 1(2) of the Constitution).  

So, was his choice of Shettima just a ruse/risk to satisfy the powers that be within the APC, so that they could hear the resounding public outcry against the folly of such a choice, which could maybe even lead to the loss of the election, and subsequently, capitulate and choose a more suitable Northern Christian candidate? Section 31 of the Electoral Act 2022 (EA) allows a candidate to withdraw his or her nomination in writing 90 days to the election (in February 2023); in this case, Kashim Shettima can withdraw his candidature on or before November 25, 2022, and a fresh running mate can be substituted within 14 days of his withdrawal (Section 33 of the EA).

A question keeps recurring in my mind; the truth they say can be bitter – why Senator Bola Tinubu is not Muslim enough for the Muslim North? It has always been acceptable for a Muslim Northerner to choose a Christian running mate; why is it different now? Why can’t a Southern Muslim, choose a Christian running mate? Is there discrimination within the religion in Nigeria, pointing to the fact that Southern Muslims are lesser Muslims than the Northern Muslims?

Or is the somewhat unpopular choice of a Muslim-Muslim ticket a strategy on the part of the Northern powers that be in the APC, to ensure that it’s flag bearer loses the election and keep the Presidency in the North? After all, it is difficult to tell the difference between APC and PDP, since many of the members, including highest ranking Party officials, have gone back and forth between the two parties like yo-yos. If this be the case, a word they say, is enough for the wise and the master-strategists! 

Litigation

As for the case in court, seeking to prevent Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Senator Bola Tinubu from replacing their former ‘dummy running mates’ with real ones, I don’t see the case going anywhere. The aforementioned Sections 31 & 33 of the EA, whether misused or not, permits this substitution. 

Conclusion 

The competition is stiff, for the 2023 Presidential seat. It certainly does not seem as it will be a walk over, for the candidate who will be victorious at the polls. The votes seem to be divided across the candidates for different reasons, even though those who can be identified as the three major contenders for the Presidency all come with their own peculiar impediments. Aside from the ages of the Presidential candidates of APC and PDP, and allegations of corruption levelled against them (which I’m not aware have been proven in a court of law), for PDP, the fact that we have had a Northern Presidency for the past seven years (eight years when President Buhari completes his second term next year), is a minus. For the APC, apart from the issues raised about the health and history of its flag bearer, the Muslim-Muslim ticket is a minus. And, for the Labour Party, even though Peter Obi has a strong following amongst the Youths, we don’t know if enough of them are registered to vote, and how strong his Party’s structure is across the country, for example, in the North. 

Congratulations to Ademola Adeleke of the PDP for winning the Osun State Governorship election. In this case, justice delayed is not justice denied! 

Congratulations to the Professor Mahmood Yakubu-led INEC as well, for introducing this new system in which the votes of the people actually count. We can see that in 2023, elections are not going to be business as usual. For those who ‘genuinely’ feel that they will be able to impose a Muslim-Muslim ticket on Nigerians because they are the ruling party (and I use the word ‘genuinely’ gingerly with tongue in cheek), the outcome of the Osun election should let them have a rethink. Having a Presidential ticket that is acceptable to the people will definitely not only be a plus, it will be absolutely necessary to ensure victory, as election rigging may not be much of an
option in 2023.