Take Away from Osun Governorship Poll
Yinka Kolawole highlights some take away from the just concluded gubernatorial election in Osun State
Last Saturday’s governorship election in Osun state conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had lots of preparation put in place for the conduct of a credible, free, fair and conclusive exercise.
The election which was a straight battle between the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and incumbent Governor, Alhaji Adegboyega Oyetola and Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) started with voters education by the commission on how the electorates would go about their legitimate right before, during and after the election process.
INEC did not stop at that, it also held stakeholders meeting with all political players as to conduct themselves well in the political activities. Infact before the election, the electoral body organised series of meetings with traditional rulers, religious leaders, media practitioners, security agencies, ad-hoc staff member of NYSC, as well as electorates as to let them know what to do and what not to do before, during and after the election.
They were made to go through electoral needs for the election to be peaceful and acceptable in all ramifications. INEC made all stakeholders realize that the ideas of Vote buying should be discouraged in all forms. It also urged voters to collect their PVC to enable them to vote in their respective polling units.
On the election day, security was beefed up with the involvement of police, Army, NSCDC, Immigration officers, who were all civil in their conduct. Civil societies were also not left out in building good relationship with INEC so as to ensure credible, free, transparent as well as conclusive election.
YIAGA AFRICA
Yiaga Africa employed the Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) methodology and deployed 500 observers in pairs to a representative random sample of 250 polling units, 32 mobile observers in all 30 local government areas (LGAs) and 30 LGA results collation observers. This deployment strategy enabled Yiaga Africa to provide timely and accurate information on the election day process commencing from the set-up, voter accreditation, voting, and counting and to independently verify the official results for the Osun gubernatorial election as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The process and results verification statement is based on reports from 247 to 250 (98%) sampled polling units in Osun State.
Yiaga Africa commended INEC for the significant improvement in logistics management for the Osun 2022 governorship election. The personnel and essential materials, such as the Voter Register, BVAS, voting cubicles and ballot boxes, were deployed early in most of the polling units.
The CSO condemned the cases of violence and disruption of the voting and results collation process by thugs and hoodlums, especially the violence targeted at NYSC members and INEC staff. Although these cases are isolated, they undermine Nigeria’s electoral reform project.
Yiaga Africa had noted in its pre-election observation statements that the Osun Governorship election will be keenly contested and largely determined by swing LGAs and a small margin in the difference of votes between the top contesting parties. It commended the people of Osun for largely conducting themselves peacefully through the election day voting and counting process. Yiaga Africa also commended INEC and the security agencies for ensuring the voters in Osun exercised their franchise in a transparent and secure environment.
Key Findings on Election Day Process
Yiaga Africa’s WTV observers monitored accreditation, voting and counting at polling units in all 30 LGAs. It received and confirmed 29 critical incidents. The following are key observations on election day processes.
Set up and Opening of Polls: Yiaga Africa WTV observed the early arrival of polling officials and materials at polling units across the State. As of 7:30 am, Yiaga Africa WTV observers reported that INEC officials had arrived at 78% of polling units. By 8:30 am, 41% of polling units had commenced accreditation and voting. By 9:00 am 89% of polling units had commenced accreditation and voting. This, however, increased to 96% by 9:30 am. This is consistent with Yiaga Africa’s observation findings in the 2018 elections, where 91% of polling units opened by 9:00 am.
Deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS)
Yiaga Africa observed the deployment of the BVAS across the polling units visited. At 23% of polling units, Yiaga Africa observed the deployment of 2 BVAS devices per polling unit. Most of these polling units where 2 BVAS were present had more than 750 registered voters. In 92% of polling units, the BVAS functioned properly. However, in 7% of polling units, the BVAS malfunctioned, and it was fixed and in 1% of the polling units, it malfunctioned and was replaced.
Deployment of INEC Officials, Security Agents and Party Agents Deployment of polling officials and women representation: 93% of polling units had more than three polling officials present, and 61% of polling units had at least two female polling officials present while 45% of the presiding officers were women.
Deployment of Party Agents: The Party agents of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) were seen at 99% of polling units.
Deployment of security personnel: Security forces were observed at 98% of polling units. In 97% of the polling units, they were professional and non-partisan.
Access to Polling Units, Secrecy of the Ballots and Results Transmission
Access to polling units: In 28% of polling units, individuals had to climb steps to access polling units, which made it difficult for persons with disability.
Upholding the Secrecy of Ballots and Attempts to Influence Polling Officials. 93% of polling units were set up so no one could see how the voters marked their ballot papers. Nevertheless, in 7% of polling units, it was possible to see how a voter’s ballot paper was marked when it was put in the ballot box at some point throughout the day. Voters crowded the polling officials in 21% of polling units. In 37% of polling units, party agents were seen within two meters of the voting cubicle of the ballot box. In 19% of polling units, party agents attempted to influence voters and polling officials.
Polling Units Level Results Transmission : In 83% of polling units, the presiding officers used the BVAS to scan/take a snapshot of the results sheet (Form EC 8A). In 71% of polling units, the presiding officer attempted to transmit/send the result image to the INEC’s online database (IReV)
Critical Incidents Reports
Yiaga Africa received and confirmed 29 critical incident reports from its WTV observers. The incident reports capture instances of infractions that could undermine the electoral process.
These included:
Voter Inducement/Bribery: Yiaga Africa received reports of acts of vote buying perpetrated by agents of the APC and PDP in some polling units. For instance, PU 009, Akinlalu Commercial Grammar School, Ward 01 in Ife North. The party agents strategically positioned themselves by the voting cubicle to see how voters marked their ballots. In PU 003 Opp. At Olomu Mosque in Osogbo, PDP party agents were seen handing out between N2000 and N5000 to induce voters. Also, in Disu Polling Unit 003, ward 7 in Orolu LGA, APC agents were seen distributing N4000 to voters who voted for the party while PDP party agents were seen distributing N2000 to induce voters
Secrecy of the Ballots compromised: In Ward 11, Unit 3, Palace Town Hall (old post office Iree) in Boripe, Yiaga Africa observed voters showing how they mark their ballot papers to APC party agents before dropping them in the ballot box.
BVAS Malfunctioned: In Ife North LGA, PU 001 at St. Raphael Primary School Toro, the BVAS malfunctioned at about 11 am. A request was made for a replacement which came at 3:30pm.
Voter Intimidation: At Open Space-Under Tree, Ojude Oke, PU 010, Iragbiji Ward 4, Boripe LGA, thugs associated with the APC threatened to stab any voter who did not vote for the APC. The voters however insisted on casting their votes for the candidate of their choice. Yiaga Africa also received a report from Ogbagba Village, Ward 11, Pu 013 of a thug/cultist affiliated with the PDP coming to disrupt the process. Also, in Alagbede Compound beside Baptist Pry. School, Ward 05, Unit 007, part agents from APC & PDP were seen intimidating the elderly who were at the polling units to cast their vote.
Interference by Party Agent: At Afaake Town Hall. PU 003 during voting an APC party agent was seen close to the ballot box folding the ballot papers of some voters after they were done thumbprinting their choice.
Turnout and the Results Projection
Yiaga Africa’s preliminary estimates indicated that turnout for the Osun gubernatorial election will be between 40.0% and 43.0% based on official turnout figures collected from the PVT’s representative statistical sample of polling units across the 30 LGAs in the state. As such, Yiaga Africa can verify that INEC’s official turnout of 42.09% falls within WTV’s estimated range and accurately reflects the turnout of voters.
Results Verification
Based on reports from 98% (247 of 250) of sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis showed that the All Progressives Congress (APC) should receive between 45.0% and 49.0% of the vote, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) should receive between 47.8% and 51.8% of the vote, while no other political party should receive more than 1.3% of the vote. The PVT statistical analysis was based on the number of registered voters and not on the number of PVCs collected. Yiaga Africa estimated rejected ballots were between 1.7% and 2.3% while INEC’s official rejected ballot is 2.2%.
Oyetola, Adeleke React to Result
Speaking on his victory, Osun State Governor-elect Senator Ademola Adeleke, dedicated it to his late brother, Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke.
According to him “I give praise and adoration to Almighty. I praise the courage and determination of the good people of Osun state. I commend men and women of goodwill, the young and the old. I am overwhelmed by your love and support. Our state has turned a new page. We have launched a landmark path for progress and prosperity of our people. It is therefore with strong faith in God and trust in our people that I accept my election as the Governor of Osun state. I pledge my total commitment to the best interest of the state and her people.”
On his part, Osun Governor and candidate of the APC, Adegboyega Oyetola, took into cognisance the results of the governorship election in the State as announced by INEC, on Sunday.
He, however, noted that the party would be responding appropriately after studying the results and consulting with critical stakeholders of the party.
In a statement issued by his Chief Press Secretary, Ismail Omipidan, Oyetola called on his supporters to remain calm, and the people of the State to go about their businesses without let or hindrance.
The Governor also called on security operatives to ensure maintenance of law and order.
He directed security operatives to take adequate charge so as to prevent break down of law and order.
