Winners and Losers: How They Shaped Osun Governorship Poll

Chuks Okocha

Last weekend’s governorship election in Osun State was a keenly contested exercise which threw up quite a surprise and further left in its trail natural expectations – winners and losers – but with a different mix.

Save for some major and defining amendments to the Electoral Act which introduced a good use of technology and by implications plugged avenues for electoral manipulations, there was actually very few distinguishing markers between the 2018 governorship election in the state and the one held last Saturday.

Senator Ademola Adeleke of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was the candidate to beat in both elections. However, while there were alleged manipulations in 2018, after the stalemate which resulted in a rerun and eventual victory for the outgoing governor, Gboyega Oyetola, the 2022 experience played slightly differently.

Like the 2018 election, build-up to last Saturday’s election also placed Adeleke as the candidate to beat, including some polls, which had predicted that barring any last minute changes, the “dancing senator” would emerge winner.

But unlike 2018, in which the political house of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) managed to paper its cracks, the walls were completely broken down in the lead up to the recent election.

With some of the major actors like the Minister of Interior and two-terms former governor of the state, Rauf Aregbesola, playing against some actors in his party, including Bola Tinubu and Gboyega Oyetola, the 2022 election stopped looking good for the APC and its candidate months ago.

Interestingly, it wasn’t all bed of roses for the PDP either. While the party in the state, was largely put together, aside the malcontents generated during the primary election against Adeleke, the PDP was seen to have welcomed more members from other parties. Yet, the subsisting disagreements amongst some of its leaders at the national front, nearly undid things for the party in the state.

But because all politics is local, Adeleke and a few other stakeholders in the state applied the right adhesive to hold all that they had together and maintained that reality up onto the election, thus leveraging the advantage of one-house and relative support from the rest of the national leadership.

Clearly, these pockets of disaffection in both parties, although manifested a lot more in the APC, gave rise to the winners and losers across the two parties. In other words, while the winning party had losers in its fold, the ruling party presently in the state also had winners amongst them.

These intricacies have helped, albeit not by default, in the production of winners and losers from last Saturday’s election in both parties. Also, being the last off-season election before the 2023 national elections, the outcome of the Osun election is also being interpreted variously by the parties, giving fillip to why Osun, at this time, was crucial in the electoral calendar of the country.

THE WINNERS

Muhammadu Buhari

President Muhammadu Buhari is arguably the number winner in the just concluded governorship election in Osun State. He created the environment for a credible, free and fair election through an improved Electoral Act that is intolerant to rigging or any form of manipulation.

Buhari might have performed below average in many of the boxes of his promises to the Nigerian people, the fact that elections have improved over time is a function of his dedication to a legacy of sound electoral system, which he promised to bequeath on the nation.

Small wonder he was one of the first persons to congratulate Adeleke, saying the people of Osun had spoken through their ballot and that their will must matter and be respected. It certainly can get better, but this, at least, is noteworthy.

Ademola Adeleke

Outside of his state, candidate of the PDP and winner of the July 16 governorship election, Adeleke, was given no chance at all in the election. Not a few people thought he was a serious candidate for an office as high as the governor of any state at all.

With a supposedly poor education (whose ante he upped recently), his rather clownish disposition as one who loves to dance and seemingly uninspiring policy (because he never presented any), he was the last person many people would have considered for the office of governor.

The misgivings nonetheless, he remained tenacious and refused to be distracted by some of the unsavoury remarks about him, especially, from those who considered him less fit for the office. And if in spite of this, he still went ahead to win the election, with remarkable votes difference, his victory is worth celebrating. 

David Adeleke (aka Davido)

Afrobeat star, David Adeleke, whose stage name is Davido and a nephew to the governor-elect was a visible factor throughout the campaign period. Davido used his music and influence to campaign heavily for his uncle and brought many people on his side, especially, the youths, who could relate to his type of music.

Although Davido did not just start the campaign for his uncle, he however stole the show, when he took to streets campaigning for him. He made such an impact in his uncle’s campaign and took no prisoners as far as his aspiration was concerned, including challenging other family members, who tried to stand in the way of his favourite uncle.

Atiku Abubakar/ Ifeanyi Okowa

The presidential duo of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar and Ifeanyi Okowa were also winners in the Osun gubernatorial election. The election was a burden on their career and aspiration, yet, the internal squabbles in the party was almost going to throw spanner in the works for them. But they were not deterred. Determined, they mobilised to Osun, sold their programmes and party and the result was the outcome of the election. No doubt, the election was a big psychological and moral boost for their quest to become president and vice-president respectively.

Atiku, last week in Osogbo during the PDP campaign, had said a victory for the party in Osun would be a major leap to winning the presidential election next year and so it has happened. That explains why he cut short his vacation to attend the PDP mega rally, refusing also to attend his graduation ceremony in London. They are two of the winners.

Iyorchia Ayu and PDP NWC

Before the Osun election, it wasn’t the best of time for the National Chairman of the PDP, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, and the PDP NWC members. Coming at a time some members of the party were calling for Ayu’s sack over some agreement he allegedly shared to resign should the presidential candidate of the party come from the north, the Osun victory provided some relief, perhaps, temporarily.

This is especially so since the party in June had lost the governorship election in Ekiti State due to the local politics of the state. Osun, however provided a huge psychological boost for a rather wobbling NWC of the party. This has also raised the stakes in the South-west state for the party and a launch pad to return to reckoning.

Bukola Saraki

Kwara State-born former Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki was another winner. Saraki, unlike many others, worked so hard to ensure the victory of the PDP in Osun. He left his comfort zone with the governors of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki and the chairman of the national campaign committee, Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State and plotted day and night to ensure victory for the PDP.

Aside campaigning for Adeleke, he has also been a peacemaker in the party over time, just so everything could go well. Saraki demonstrated the spirit of a good and patriotic party man and put his all in the collective effort that gave birth to the PDP victory.

Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Co

A former governor of the state, Olagunsoye Oyinlola and some other stakeholders of the party in the state who had suffered humiliation and relegation, yet, put away their pride to work for the PDP victory. They were some of the unseen winners. Others include the likes of Eyitayo Jegede, PDP governorship candidate in Ondo State, who also worked hard to unite the factions of the PDP in the state and mobilised heavily. They deserve to be congratulated as part of the brain for the Saturday victory.

Rauf Aregbesola

One of the major factors that affected APC in Osun was the Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, who a long time ago parted ways with both Oyetola and the presidential candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, at an open gathering of party faithful. Supporters of Aregbesola thereafter went all out to vow to ensure Oyetola did not return. The only caveat they gave for his likely win was if they were the ones, who betrayed him. Although since the open gathering, where Aregbesola announced his parting of ways with the APC leaders, he had not said anything afterwards, but was believed to have worked against the party, even though no one knew in what way. Plus or minus, Aregbesola is a cross-over winner. 

INEC and Security

The duo of INEC and the combined security agencies that conducted the election and secured Osun before, during and after the election, were the real deal. This is because without them, there couldn’t have been winners and losers at all.

Also, without them, there would not have been a clean electoral process. Without them and their well-trained staff, there could not have been a hitch-free exercise as well. INEC and the security agencies had over time risen to the occasion and currently not doing badly at elections. They are very major winners.

Abdulsalami’s Peace Committee

A roll call of the winners at the just concluded Osun governorship election would be incomplete without the National Peace Council (NPC) headed by a former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar.

Since it was set up, the intervention of this committee during elections has always paid off, thus reducing tension and creating a friendly as against an atmosphere of crisis.

They intervened in the Osun election from day one and were involved all through. Even when Abdusalami was not available, his deputy, Bishop Matthew Kukah, stood in and very well so. This committee is by all standards a winner and deserving of commendation too.

THE LOSERS

Bola Tinubu

Bola Tinubu is the number one loser in the Osun election, because the victory would have meant a lot to his presidential bid, especially coming at a time his preference for a Muslim-Muslim ticket had become a major national concern and debate. The defeat was therefore a big blow, more so, when he was in the state to campaign vigorously for the APC.

To put it succinctly, the loss was a humiliation to Tinubu and no wonder he left Osun hurriedly for Abuja, when he saw the direction things were going, long before the results were announced. Whether or not anyone admits it, the defeat was a set back to his campaign, albeit could be temporary.

Gboyega Oyetola

The outgoing Governor, Adegboyega Oyetola, must have been devastated by his loss to a man he ordinarily would have considered less qualified to succeed him.

Although many people believed Oyetola was largely responsible for his own misfortune because despite having an intel that the election was Adeleke’s to lose and tipped to tidy up loose ends, his campaign was defined by poor planning, chaotic structure and lack of attention to some of the little things that mattered to his victory.

Not only did members of the different committees set up for the purpose of the election express huge disappointment in the way they were treated; many of them pulled out of their committees in anger. There were complains of the governor being unreachable, compounded by his reluctance to funding key demands of the campaign. They even called him stingy. He lost woefully and should take responsibility for his misfortune.

Ayo Fayose

A rather mercurial former governor of Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose had announced his exit from the PDP some weeks ago over the internal crisis after the presidential primary and allegedly pitched tent with the APC and Tinubu.

What that meant was that as a member of the ruling party, regardless of whatever role he played, he shared from the misfortune given the time he left the PDP and could also be said to have brought ill-luck to the APC after extending same to his party in Ekiti, which lost the governorship election over a month ago. Fayose is a loser, who deserved his plight.

Nyesom Wike

The Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike has remained one unplacatable loser since he was taught rudimentary politics during the PDP presidential primary. His condition was made worse when the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar didn’t find him a worthy partner. He since became rebellious and refused to campaign for the party. He seized every opportunity not to partake in the Osun campaigns, despite being prominently placed as a member of the campaign council. He had perhaps waited to see his party lose and gloat over their misfortune. But he was wrong, the PDP won without him, his money and co-travelers – Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State and Samuel Ortom of Benue State.

‘Seyi Makinde

Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde is another loser who might have further sculpted his own misfortune in regional politics. The reason Makinde’s case is rather disappointing, if not shameful to many observers is because as the only PDP governor in the south-west, a lot was expected from him by way of standing by and rallying round Adeleke. But he was missing at such a critical moment, just to be in solidarity with Wike and co.

Curiously but hypocritically, Makinde was among the first set of people to issue a congratulatory message to Adeleke, when he should have been the one chaperoning him around the zone as his partner. He is a loser, expected to quit his pretence.

The APC Leadership and Governors

This category of losers include the National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu; the National Secretary, Iyiola Omisore, who is from the state; Chairman of the Osun Campaign Council, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos and the 21 other governors ofthe APC. Adamu had given a very direct charge before the election, urging members of the campaign council led by Sanwo-Olu to do all that they could do to win the election. But contrary to his wish, they lost at a time, when victory meant everything to them.

Omisore, being an indigene of the state from Ife, did everything humanly possible to assist his party, instead, he suffered humiliation as voters and others booed him, when they suspected he was up to mischief.

Sanwo-Olu’s efforts did not however show. Although the Lagos governor was said to have put his all into the campaign, there were other equally engaging demons that dwarfed his efforts.

Over all, the APC lost and dragged all their supporters in the mud.