Tinubu: Running Against Osun and Buhari
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DIALOGUE WITH NIGERIA BY AKIN OSUNTOKUN
The July 16th 2022 governorship election in Osun state is a return match of the 2018 governorship election fielding the same protagonists, the incumbent governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress, APC and Senator Demola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The major takeaway from the 2018 precedent is that it was a close election in which Adeleke prevailed but was rigged out of victory by the brazen manipulations of third parties. The outcome of the rematch is a reaffirmation of this denied victory. Lacking finesse and quite the happy go lucky black sheep of the family, Adeleke is the imperfect medium through which Yoruba political sophistication was channelled in the instant. And he is a child of destiny to boot.
At the intervention of providence and upon the death of his senior brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, he was drafted to pick up the senatorial seat once occupied by the elder brother. And twice, he was handed the baton of the uncompleted relay race to the government house initiated by the same deceased mentor. This time around he was second time lucky and there was no stopping him breasting the tape. All the stars aligned in his favour including an intramural conspiracy boost from the camp of the enemy.
Oyetola is the unimpressive political greenhorn and personal protege of Tinubu who practically imposed him as successor to the outgoing governor, Rauf Aregbesola, in 2018. As it is commonly known, the two term Osun state governor, was himself a long standing political mentee of Tinubu.The rule of governorship succession in the fourth republic is that outgoing governors almost always get to hand-pick their successors. Aregbesola aspired to no less. He was denied this privilege and a cold war thereby ensued between the two culminating in a loud and clamouross protest by the former Osun state governor months ago. A house divided against itself cannot stand and so it became with the consequential factionallisation of the APC in Osun state .
Speaking before his supporters on the 14th of February 2022, Aregbesola let loose the salvo “we followed the leading of our leader that we thought was a noble and reliable fellow. We followed him dutifully with all sense of loyalty,” We dealt with him without treachery but we never knew he planned evil for us*.“We exalted him beyond his status and he turned himself to a god over us and we had sworn to ridicule anyone who compares himself to God. God has no competitor; He is enough to be God”. The consequent loss of Aregbesola became the gain of the PDP as it was alleged that the former governor and his faction stayed only in the APC in order to play the Brutus.
If Tinubu ends up losing the 2023 presidential election, the outcome of this governorship election will be reckoned as the first marker. There is poetic justice here. If his godfather status was cemented by the controversial intervention of the judiciary to secure the governorship of Ekiti and Osun states for his proxies in 2010, Tinubu’s viability as a presidential candidate has been put to question by the 2022 loss of the Osun state governorship election by another proxy. After becoming the APC presidential candidate the contest he could not afford to lose was the Ekiti and Osun states off season elections.
The coincidence that his political prowess (in a presupposed South West stronghold) would be measured in terms of how APC fares in those two elections is what is called the X factor in the affairs of man (an unanticipated intervention). Why do these elections had to happen immediately after his emergence as the winner of the APC ticket? Given that so much was at stake for his candidature and reputation as Mr Mister fix it, the logical projection was that Tinubu would handily contrive a favourable outcome in these indicative elections. Alas, providence dictated otherwise and punctured the inflated balloon of his political ego.
The theory of the power politics behind the loss of Osun state is that it is a surface manifestation of a behind the scenes high stakes intra party intrigue. His delicate health notwithstanding, President Umaru Musa Yar’adua was there for his party at the rerun of the Ekiti governorship election in 2010. And so was President Goodluck Jonathan at the 2014 governorship election in the same state. On the contrary, not only did President Muhammadu Buhari kept his distance from the Ekiti and Osun states elections, his acknowledgement of the unfavorable outcome of the election fell short of the obligatory consolation of his defeated party. He is, after all, not only the president of the country, he is also the leader of the party.
Days before the election, the APC presidential standard bearer appropriately sought the good offices of Buhari to nominate his running mate-as demonstration of his vested interest in the ticket. Instructively, the president declined the solicitation assuring Tinubu of his total support for whomever he picked as running mate. This cannot be a good omen for the candidate especially against the background that the president equally alienated himself from the primaries that produced Tinubu. At the palace of the Emir of Katsina on July 15th 2022, Buhari commended himself on this alienation.
“I told each of the aspirants to go and do their best. One particular governor, in his wisdom, came to meet me and asked who they should vote for at the party convention, checking if I had a preferred candidate. There was no need for interference in the process of choosing our candidates for the 2023 elections, knowing the competence of all the aspirants. They went and elected Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and he picked his running mate, Sen. Kashim Ibrahim. I am praying that we will have a peaceful and successful elections,’’ said Buhari
Yet, contrary to this democracy loving posturing, the president, on May 31st 2022, specifically requested for personal discretion to determine who becomes the party candidate. He rambled at length but here are the relevant excerpts:
“The Party has successfully established internal policies that promote continuity and smooth succession plans even at the state and local government levels. For example, first term Governors who have served credibly well have been encouraged to stand for re-election.. Similarly, second term governors have been accorded the privilege of promoting successors that are capable of driving their visions as well as the ideals of the party”.
“As we approach the convention, I appeal to all of you to allow our interests to converge. In keeping with the established internal policies of the Party and as we approach the convention in a few days, therefore, I wish to solicit the reciprocity and support of the governors and other stakeholders in picking my successor, who would fly the flag of our party for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023″ Where the cookie begins to crumble was the sticky point of the presidential rotation of power to the South.
The president had determined to anoint a presidential candidate from the Muslim North constituency as consensus candidate. Were this not to be the case, he would have had no reason to spurn the prerogative given him (by the caucus of the of the northern APC governors) to pick his preference from the exclusive pool of the five aspirants from southern Nigeria. In their resolve on the concession of power to the South, the governors became the nemesis of Buhari.
How do we reconcile the President’s specific request to be given a free hand in choosing the party candidate with his latter day pretention to democratic neutrality? It is an open secret that it was after the botched attempt to foist senate president Ahmed Lawan as consensus candidate that Buhari suddenly became a born again democrat. If you know of any president other than Buhari who pretends to be disinterested in the choice of the ticket that may produce his successor, please let me know.
Even though Buhari is virtually and strategically reproduced in the Tinubu ticket, there appears to be no personal rapport between the two. There is consistency and continuity in the feigned religious bigotry implicated in the Muslim Muslim presidential ticket. The controversial choice of former Borno state governor, Kashim Shettima as running mate only added fuel to the fire on account of the credible speculation of a covert relationship with the Boko Haram insurgents
The gaffe prone Nigerian political leadership has this peculiar habit of blaming the victims. In their imagination, it is those criticising the ticket as patently subversive of national unity and integration that are wrong not those instrumentalising the cynical deployment of religious identity politics for political gain. Given the acute cleavage ridden context of contemporary Nigeria there is no logic to the argument that a same faith ticket does not portend clear and present danger for the political stability of Nigeria.
And I have the distasteful obligation of a left handed salute to the honesty and effrontery of the probity challenged governor of kano state Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje for stating this ulterior motive in black and white. He said “I have come to this mosque to talk to the Muslims here. Please, the person you should vote for is Oyetola. Do you know why? This is because he is a Muslim like you. We are guiding you on the path (to follow).”
Late president Mohaman Ghadafi of Libya once openly canvassed the split of Nigeria along religious lines. This, precisely, is the kind of attention Nigeria is courting with the advertisement of the Muslim Muslim ticket. It is a classic instance of inviting outsiders to fish in Nigeria’s troubled waters
Still On The Muslim Muslim Presidential Ticket
“No sir. The clamour is about representation; not religion. And representation matters a lot in a democracy. Tinubu has made his choice.
And it was clearly driven by religious considerations; i.e. that he could only win if he chose a northern Muslim VP. It is dishonest to say otherwise. I am also for REPRESENTATION & DIVERSITY. In a country where we often argue that our diversity is our strength, we should be seen to be bending over backwards to reflect that strength through diversity in all key decisions. Competence is great. Representation matters and can go hand in hand with competence”.
The July 16th 2022 governorship election in Osun state is a return match of the 2018 governorship election fielding the same protagonists, the incumbent governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress, APC and Senator Demola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The major takeaway from the 2018 precedent is that it was a close election in which Adeleke prevailed but was rigged out of victory by the brazen manipulations of third parties. The outcome of the rematch is a reaffirmation of this denied victory. Lacking finesse and quite the happy go lucky black sheep of the family, Adeleke is the imperfect medium through which Yoruba political sophistication was channelled in the instant. And he is a child of destiny to boot.
At the intervention of providence and upon the death of his senior brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, he was drafted to pick up the senatorial seat once occupied by the elder brother. And twice, he was handed the baton of the uncompleted relay race to the government house initiated by the same deceased mentor. This time around he was second time lucky and there was no stopping him breasting the tape. All the stars aligned in his favour including an intramural conspiracy boost from the camp of the enemy.
Oyetola is the unimpressive political greenhorn and personal protege of Tinubu who practically imposed him as successor to the outgoing governor, Rauf Aregbesola, in 2018. As it is commonly known, the two term Osun state governor, was himself a long standing political mentee of Tinubu.The rule of governorship succession in the fourth republic is that outgoing governors almost always get to hand-pick their successors. Aregbesola aspired to no less. He was denied this privilege and a cold war thereby ensued between the two culminating in a loud and clamouross protest by the former Osun state governor months ago. A house divided against itself cannot stand and so it became with the consequential factionallisation of the APC in Osun state .
Speaking before his supporters on the 14th of February 2022, Aregbesola let loose the salvo “we followed the leading of our leader that we thought was a noble and reliable fellow. We followed him dutifully with all sense of loyalty,” We dealt with him without treachery but we never knew he planned evil for us*.“We exalted him beyond his status and he turned himself to a god over us and we had sworn to ridicule anyone who compares himself to God. God has no competitor; He is enough to be God”. The consequent loss of Aregbesola became the gain of the PDP as it was alleged that the former governor and his faction stayed only in the APC in order to play the Brutus.
If Tinubu ends up losing the 2023 presidential election, the outcome of this governorship election will be reckoned as the first marker. There is poetic justice here. If his godfather status was cemented by the controversial intervention of the judiciary to secure the governorship of Ekiti and Osun states for his proxies in 2010, Tinubu’s viability as a presidential candidate has been put to question by the 2022 loss of the Osun state governorship election by another proxy. After becoming the APC presidential candidate the contest he could not afford to lose was the Ekiti and Osun states off season elections.
The coincidence that his political prowess (in a presupposed South West stronghold) would be measured in terms of how APC fares in those two elections is what is called the X factor in the affairs of man (an unanticipated intervention). Why do these elections had to happen immediately after his emergence as the winner of the APC ticket? Given that so much was at stake for his candidature and reputation as Mr Mister fix it, the logical projection was that Tinubu would handily contrive a favourable outcome in these indicative elections. Alas, providence dictated otherwise and punctured the inflated balloon of his political ego.
The theory of the power politics behind the loss of Osun state is that it is a surface manifestation of a behind the scenes high stakes intra party intrigue. His delicate health notwithstanding, President Umaru Musa Yar’adua was there for his party at the rerun of the Ekiti governorship election in 2010. And so was President Goodluck Jonathan at the 2014 governorship election in the same state. On the contrary, not only did President Muhammadu Buhari kept his distance from the Ekiti and Osun states elections, his acknowledgement of the unfavorable outcome of the election fell short of the obligatory consolation of his defeated party. He is, after all, not only the president of the country, he is also the leader of the party.
Days before the election, the APC presidential standard bearer appropriately sought the good offices of Buhari to nominate his running mate-as demonstration of his vested interest in the ticket. Instructively, the president declined the solicitation assuring Tinubu of his total support for whomever he picked as running mate. This cannot be a good omen for the candidate especially against the background that the president equally alienated himself from the primaries that produced Tinubu. At the palace of the Emir of Katsina on July 15th 2022, Buhari commended himself on this alienation.
“I told each of the aspirants to go and do their best. One particular governor, in his wisdom, came to meet me and asked who they should vote for at the party convention, checking if I had a preferred candidate. There was no need for interference in the process of choosing our candidates for the 2023 elections, knowing the competence of all the aspirants. They went and elected Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and he picked his running mate, Sen. Kashim Ibrahim. I am praying that we will have a peaceful and successful elections,’’ said Buhari
Yet, contrary to this democracy loving posturing, the president, on May 31st 2022, specifically requested for personal discretion to determine who becomes the party candidate. He rambled at length but here are the relevant excerpts:
“The Party has successfully established internal policies that promote continuity and smooth succession plans even at the state and local government levels. For example, first term Governors who have served credibly well have been encouraged to stand for re-election.. Similarly, second term governors have been accorded the privilege of promoting successors that are capable of driving their visions as well as the ideals of the party”.
“As we approach the convention, I appeal to all of you to allow our interests to converge. In keeping with the established internal policies of the Party and as we approach the convention in a few days, therefore, I wish to solicit the reciprocity and support of the governors and other stakeholders in picking my successor, who would fly the flag of our party for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023″ Where the cookie begins to crumble was the sticky point of the presidential rotation of power to the South.
The president had determined to anoint a presidential candidate from the Muslim North constituency as consensus candidate. Were this not to be the case, he would have had no reason to spurn the prerogative given him (by the caucus of the of the northern APC governors) to pick his preference from the exclusive pool of the five aspirants from southern Nigeria. In their resolve on the concession of power to the South, the governors became the nemesis of Buhari.
How do we reconcile the President’s specific request to be given a free hand in choosing the party candidate with his latter day pretention to democratic neutrality? It is an open secret that it was after the botched attempt to foist senate president Ahmed Lawan as consensus candidate that Buhari suddenly became a born again democrat. If you know of any president other than Buhari who pretends to be disinterested in the choice of the ticket that may produce his successor, please let me know.
Even though Buhari is virtually and strategically reproduced in the Tinubu ticket, there appears to be no personal rapport between the two. There is consistency and continuity in the feigned religious bigotry implicated in the Muslim Muslim presidential ticket. The controversial choice of former Borno state governor, Kashim Shettima as running mate only added fuel to the fire on account of the credible speculation of a covert relationship with the Boko Haram insurgents
The gaffe prone Nigerian political leadership has this peculiar habit of blaming the victims. In their imagination, it is those criticising the ticket as patently subversive of national unity and integration that are wrong not those instrumentalising the cynical deployment of religious identity politics for political gain. Given the acute cleavage ridden context of contemporary Nigeria there is no logic to the argument that a same faith ticket does not portend clear and present danger for the political stability of Nigeria.
And I have the distasteful obligation of a left handed salute to the honesty and effrontery of the probity challenged governor of kano state Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje for stating this ulterior motive in black and white. He said “I have come to this mosque to talk to the Muslims here. Please, the person you should vote for is Oyetola. Do you know why? This is because he is a Muslim like you. We are guiding you on the path (to follow).”
Late president Mohaman Ghadafi of Libya once openly canvassed the split of Nigeria along religious lines. This, precisely, is the kind of attention Nigeria is courting with the advertisement of the Muslim Muslim ticket. It is a classic instance of inviting outsiders to fish in Nigeria’s troubled waters
Still On The Muslim Muslim Presidential Ticket
“No sir. The clamour is about representation; not religion. And representation matters a lot in a democracy. Tinubu has made his choice.
And it was clearly driven by religious considerations; i.e. that he could only win if he chose a northern Muslim VP. It is dishonest to say otherwise. I am also for REPRESENTATION & DIVERSITY. In a country where we often argue that our diversity is our strength, we should be seen to be bending over backwards to reflect that strength through diversity in all key decisions. Competence is great. Representation matters and can go hand in hand with competence”.
