2023: How Choice of Running Mates will Influence Presidential Contest

With the presidential candidates of the three of the major political parties unveiling their running mates, the battle has now shifted to how their choices will influence the contest, Ejiofor Alike  writes

After days of dithering procrastination, the three major political parties in the country have now unveiled the identities of their running mates.

The gap in the completion of the exercise opened up the new political lexicon of placeholder in the country after two of the three major parties initially filed in placeholders to hold the positions of running mates after the emergence of their presidential candidates.

Senator Bola Tinubu who emerged as the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) pushed forward Alhaji Ibrahim Masari as his placeholder before finally unveiling Senator Kashim Shettima from Borno State as his running mate.

Mr. Peter Obi of Labour Party had on his part pushed forward the director general of his campaign, Dr. Doyin Okupe as the placeholder before finally unveiling Senator Datti Baba-Ahmed from Kaduna State as his running mate.

Senator Rabiu Kwankwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) which draws its strength from his local base in Kano did not announce a placeholder and has forged on with Ladipo Johnson from Lagos State as his running mate.

But on Thursday, Kwankwaso announced a Lagos cleric, Archbishop Isaac Idahosa, from Edo State as his new running mate in the 2023 general election

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) unarguably the major opposition party also did not have to announce a placeholder as the candidate, Atiku Abubakar, had within one week of his emergence announced Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate.

With all four major parties now having announced their line-up for the contest, the focus is now being put on the synergies the combinations could bring to the contest.

Tinubu and Shettima

The announcement of Senator Kashim Shettima as the APC vice-presidential candidate has been swallowed by the controversies over the religious slant of the ticket with several political stakeholders and religious leaders fuming over the decision.

In going for Shettima, Tinubu was believed to have gone against the unwritten agreement with the party’s northern governors to produce one of them as his running mate. That agreement it was gathered, was reached in the days leading to APC’s presidential primaries.

The initial decision to field Masari as a placeholder it was gathered, was mainly on account of the pressure that came upon Tinubu after he emerged as the candidate despite his long-held preference for Shettima.

Just as they were divided over the choice of a presidential candidate, the governors were also divided over the choice of a running mate.

THISDAY gathered that the pressure that was mounted from sponsored groups and a section of the presidency in favour of the Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai was about the most pressing on Tinubu.

Remarkably, those who had an insight into Tinubu’s plan to push forward Shettima had tried to truncate that plan by talking the APC presidential candidate into picking the popular governor of Borno State, Prof. Babagana Zulum as a running mate.

It was undoubtedly a very irresistible choice given the popularity of the governor as a performer and the populism that he has engendered through some of his actions.

It was based on the development that Zulum following the APC primaries that returned him as the governorship candidate on May 26 ruled himself out of running for the position of presidential running mate despite offers that were reportedly made to him.

Following his primaries victory, he said: “Let me reveal with apologies, that some close associates of key Presidential aspirants have sent me offers for the position of running mate, as possible Vice President, depending on the outcome of the APC Presidential primaries by the weekend.”

“I have thought deeply about these offers because becoming Vice President is considered attractive. I have thought about all the powers and privileges of being VP. I can see the honour of presiding over meetings attended by Governors and Ministers, and the privilege of having a Presidential Jet at one’s disposal. I can see the honour of Presidential receptions within and outside Nigeria.”

“However, I have asked myself, that should I get the opportunity to become VP and raise my political profile, what happens to all our ongoing works for the people of Borno State?”

The governor’s decision to reject the offers was in part seen as an attempt not to hamper the chances of his political godfather, Shettima who plucked him from the world of academia into the political terrain.

With Zulum out of the way, the options according to sources remained between El-Rufai and Shettima. El-Rufai was a long shot for Tinubu especially given the past animosity between the two chieftains of the APC.

THISDAY reported that El-Rufai had gone to the extent not too long ago to urge residents of Lagos to dethrone Tinubu as their political godfather, prescribing the formula he said he used in dethroning the godfathers he met in Kaduna.

Remarkably, because the governors were not united behind El-Rufai, it was only a waiting game for Tinubu to unveil Shettima as his running mate. However, that choice has now been swallowed by the discontent among many Christians who have accused the APC leader of polarising the country along religious lines to achieve his life ambition.

It is a charge that indeed poses serious challenge for Tinubu. Key associates of the APC presidential candidate have openly rebelled.

Babachir Lawal, a long-time associate of Tinubu’s has decried the Muslim-Muslim ticket as a prescription for rebellion. He has also bombed the personality chosen by Tinubu as unfit.

There are many who feel that Tinubu had a wide range of Christian leaders to choose from among Northern leaders but as Lawal said, Tinubu appears to have been trapped by some Northern governors and other politicians pushing an Islamic agenda.

Not only Northern Christians have been revolted by the choice. Some southern allies of the APC candidate have also taken a walk.

It is now feared that rather than project him positively, that the choice made by Tinubu could snowball into an open rebellion against him in the South.

Atiku-Okowa

Just like Tinubu, the choice of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State by Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate as his running mate was shadowed with controversy.

The fact that multiple committees were conceived by Atiku and the PDP leadership to come up with a running mate led to the controversy of two recommendations: Nyesom Wike who was recommended by a panel of some party leaders and Ifeanyi Okowa who was recommended by another panel constituted by Atiku.

Atiku stuck to Okowa. Many in the party were not initially happy about the decision but to the shock of many, Ohanaeze Ndigbo has welcomed Okowa acclaiming him as their son. Okowa also acknowledged on ARISE NEWS Channel that he is Igbo.

What, however, would have easily been considered as a major gain for Atiku and Okowa now has the form of threat from the Obi movement.

With the challenge from Obi, those sympathetic to the Atiku-Okowa joint ticket have now gone to showcase the Delta State governor’s achievements in office in the areas of peace and human capital development.

Apart from Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Niger Delta Peace Initiative (NDPI) have also hailed Okowa in his efforts in stabilising cordiality among the different ethnic groups in Delta State, has urged him to bring the same magic wand to the country as vice-president.

While applauding his nomination as the PDP presidential running mate in a statement, the group in a statement  affirmed that there could not have been a better choice in terms of peace and security among contemporaries of the governor.

After the initial hiccups that arose after the nomination of the Delta governor, peace is gradually returning to the party on the issue especially given the limitations for Wike who many say would be averse to joining the APC where his former friend-turned- foe, Rotimi Amaechi holds sway in Rivers State.

The permutations on Okowa as running mate are also being helped by the credentials he brings as governor in the realm of promoting peace in a multicultural setting like Delta State.

As the first governor from the Igbo speaking section of Delta North, the governor has against expectation and even the records of his predecessors successfully put the once hostile relationship between the different ethnic groups in the state at bay.

It is thus instructive that the NPDI in its endorsement of Okowa’s nomination encouraged him to go forth and replicate the same peace formula at the national level.

The charge is especially significant given what many see as the poor management of the diversity by the outgoing APC government.

As the group said in a press statement issued by its national coordinator, Emma Ekpe:

“We note Dr Ifeanyi Okowa’s management of the diversity of Delta State which has made all major tribes in Delta to feel most of the people of the state to feel at home in allocation and utilization of the resources available to the state.

“It is salutary to note that before his time that the major ethnic groups in the state were particularly suspicious of one another, but today after seven years the governor has succeeded in breaking down the wall of suspicion and bringing a sense of equity across the three senatorial zones and diverse ethnic groups in the state.”

“We remember that barely three months into office he inaugurated the Delta State Advisory and Peace Building Council headed by Professor Sam Oyovbaire.

“The work of that committee and other initiatives were key to the sustenance of the peace that has made ethnic acrimony a thing of the past in Delta State.

“We thus charge Dr Okowa to apply the same formula at the national level in assisting Atiku Abubakar in putting to silence the ghosts of ethnic, religious and other issues that have fanned criminality in Nigeria.

“We are hopeful that his record in Delta can be positively applied at the national level and with it the restoration of peace in the country,” the group said in urging Okowa.

Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed

The emergence of Baba-Ahmed has amazed many. Undoubtedly, the speeches he has made, the deep insights he has shared,  and the policy failures of the APC-led government could deepen interest in the Labour Party, especially in the North.

However, there are emerging issues with Baba-Ahmed, including the fact that he was once very close to Buhari.

Many would want him to come open on the relationship he had with the outgoing president and what led him to move away from Buhari after winning a Senate seat in 2011 on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).