NIMET Records 95% Accurate Weather Precision in 15 Years

Chinedu Eze

As the rains continue to pound different parts of the country, causing severe flooding, the Director General of Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Prof. Mansur Matazu, has said the agency has recorded 95 per cent precision and accuracy of weather predictions in the last 15 years.

This is far above the accepted minimum standard of 60 per cent, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Speaking on the spate of rainfall in recent days in some parts of the country, Matazu urged Nigerians, especially those in Taraba state and some parts of the South West areas to be weary of more floods as a result of expected rainfall. 

He advised Nigerians to be prepared for more flooding in some parts of the country, adding that the climate change has affected the activities across the world.

The NiMet Director General regretted that most states and local government areas are not captured in the weather prediction system, so that weather changes in those areas could be monitored.

He said there is the need for MDAs to adhere to NiMet’s predictions in order to mitigate the impact of flooding and explained that poor response has remained the factor leading to devastations caused by weather.

He therefore called for adequate compliance to avoid the tragic consequence of flooding that could be avoided through preemptive action.

Matazu however expressed optimism that with the agency’s good working relationship with the National Orientation Agency and Ministry of Communication, a lot of sensitisation would be done to ensure that people take climate forecast into their daily activities.

On adherence to forecast by farmers, Matazu explained that the agency had distributed farmers’ rain gauge to them for monitoring to enable them to feedback the agency and urged Nigerians to desist from dropping refuse into the water channels and to stop building on waterways to mitigate flooding.

Matazu also explained that the agency’s collaborations with various partners, government and non-governmental organizations to co-produce and deliver user-defined impact-based products and services has led to accurate, reliable and timely weather forecast.

According to him, across all continents of the world, humanitarian crisis is on the increase, requiring cooperation and various levels of partnership to overcome such challenges and also observed that developments of nations are being jeopardised in an atmosphere of chaos, diseases, disaster, epidemics, food insecurity, hazard and many more.

Earlier this year, NiMet announced its weather prediction for the year and said the rest of the year was looking good.

Presenting the Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) to the nation, with the theme, “Strengthening Climate Actions through Timely and Impact-based Climate Prediction for Economic Recovery,” Matazu explained that the Seasonal Climate Prediction falls under the category of NiMet’s long-term forecasts in contrast to its weather forecasts that range from nowcasting to short and medium forecasts. 

The SCP contains information on the onset and cessation dates of the cropping season; length of the growing period; rainfall amount; temperature forecasts for the hot season (January to April); dry spell and little dry season; malaria and meningitis vigilance, and socio-economic implications of the predictions.

According to the 2022 SCP, the earliest onset of the planting season is expected to begin by February 28 in the coastal parts of the country, while the onset of rainfall is expected to commence between April and May in the central states, and eventually within June to July in the northern states. 

The onset of the planting season is predicted to be normal over most parts of Nigeria with a few areas having it earlier, while some areas would have it delayed. The document predicting rainfall cessation dates across most parts of the country in 2022 to be near the long-term average conditions.

The NiMet also anticipated that the gap between the onset and cessation dates would be regarded as safe periods for the planting of various crops in accordance with their cropping calendars. 

It anticipated the growing season to last between 250 to 300 days in southern parts of the country, 100 to 200 days in the North. According to the report, the areas around Kwara, Oyo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Benue, Bayelsa and Rivers states are likely to experience a shorter than normal length of the growing season. It then forecast prolonged length of the growing season in parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Edo, and Imo states.

For the annual total rainfall, the prediction indicates that the annual rainfall amount is expected to be normal in most parts of the country. The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 390 mm in the North to over 2,790 mm in the South; on the other hand, annual rainfall amount ranging from 390 mm to 790mm is anticipated in some parts of Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina and Sokoto states.

Other states envisaged by NiMet to have total rainfall include Nasarawa, Taraba, Kogi, Benue, FCT, Ekiti, Osun and Oyo with records of 1,190 mm to 1,590 mm. It, however, forecast dry spells from May to August, noting that moderate dry spells would persist for 15 days in Adamawa, Benue, Kogi, Ekiti, Kwara, Niger, FCT, Kaduna, Sokoto, Kebbi and Gombe. Other areas to be affected include parts of Kebbi, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, while Nasarawa and Plateau states are to experience a severe dry spell for 20 days or longer.

With regard to temperature, the agency predicted daytime and night-timetemperature for the months of January to April, from which the country is projected to expect warmer January, cooler days in February over the North but warmer nights over the South. Interestingly, warmer days over the North and cooler nights around the South are predicted for the month of March. The month of April is forecast to experience warmer daytime temperatures and cooler than long-term average night-time temperatures