What Game is Obasanjo Up to?

Emameh Gabriel asks if ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo has anything up his sleeves with the recent meeting in London with Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state and Labour Party’s presidential flag-bearer, Peter Obi

Beyond the criticisms that trailed the trip last week to the United Kingdom for horse-trading and perhaps, fence-mending, indications have emerged that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is very keen about a southern presidential candidate emerging victorious in the February, 2023 election in the country. 

With Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Lagos State governor who is also from the south west where Obasanjo wants to maintain political relevance as the only living ex-president from the region, the former military head of state pundits believe will stake anything to ensure that Tinubu’s ambition does not see the light of the day.

A reliable source in the PDP who confided in THISDAY at the weekend said, “It is not about PDP or APC but Obasanjo’s inordinate desire to ensure that no one from the South West ever earn the title ‘Mr President or Ex president’ as long as he is alive”.

Obasanjo has earned the distinction of being the only former president in Nigerian history to work against every sitting president since he left power in 2007, except for late President Yar’Adua who died in power but still was not spared by Obasanjo in the wake of his health challenges.  

The latest move is one of a series of attempts by the former president to unseat a ruling party or sitting president he had supported in the past. Former president Goodluck Jonathan was one of his victims, although he failed when he took similar move against incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.

Last Thursday, Obasanjo met with the presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi and the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, in London.

The move was said to be the first step aimed at building strong support for Labour Party’s presidential candidate who is believed to be Obasanjo’s favorite in the race.

Allies of the Rivers State governor, including governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State; Samuel Ortom of Benue State; Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State and former Cross River State Governor, Donald Duke, were also at the meeting.

The meeting came barely 24 hours after Governor Wike met with the presidential candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, also in London. The duo met alongside Governors Samuel Ortom of Benue State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and former Cross River State Governor, Donald Duke.

On the same day, the Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, also met with Wike, in London as part of efforts to resolve the differences between him and Wike.

Atiku arrived UK just a day after Wike met with Tinubu, who he has been in constant touch with through proxy.

Although it was not clear if Atiku and Wike reached any concrete agreement, it was reported that the former vice president agreed to meet all Wike’s demands, which include the resignation of PDP national chairman, Ayiochia Ayu, as a pre-condition for negotiation.

The relationship between Atiku and Wike worsened shortly after the PDP presidential primary, which was won by former Vice President.

Atiku’s ordeals began when he jettisoned the recommendation of a PDP committee, which picked Wike, who came second at the presidential primary, as his running mate.

Atiku had used his ally, Ayu, to manipulate the process that eventually paved the way for him to emerge the flag bearer of the PDP against zoning arrangements, something that did not go down well with Southern leaders.

This came despite calls and agitations by several socio-political groups across the country, including PANDEF, Afenifere, Middle Belt Elders Forum, Ohanaeze, that power should shift to the South based on equity, fairness and justice.

Atiku was the architect of his own ordeals. He made critical mistakes that turned the public and allies against him, and led his party men to gravitate towards the opposition.

Indications have shown that Obasanjo, who in 2018 reviewed his stance about Atiku and endorsed him for the 2019 presidential election, is also not favourably disposed towards a northern presidency in 2023. This leaves him with no choice but to work towards the actualisation of  Obi’s presidential bid.

THISDAY however gathered that if things work against Obi, Obasanjo still have preference for Atiku over Tinubu who is from the South.

“The reason is clear”, a source said, “Obasanjo will never endorse Tinubu. He would rather see that power return to the North even at the expense of the South than supporting him”.

With Governor Wike as the new bride in the centre of ongoing negotiations even with the ruling party, this must be a reason of concern for the APC as there are fears in the party that they might unconsciously out of desperation to gain more support base play into the trap of the opposition party, which many believe is not leaving any stone unturned to return to power in 2023 after almost eight years of opposition.

Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, had twitted after the two meetings in the United Kingdom last week, calling on all parties to sheath swords despite their political differences for the good of the country.

According to him: “The spirit in these discussions were very sobering & humbling; the urgency to find solution to what’s now an existential challenge for Nigeria quickly dissolves differences partisan politics poses. May God grant us wisdom ,creativity & understanding to put our foot right this time

“The search for better Nigeria requires that we all unite to share ideas & work together regardless of political differences. It’s our country’s peace & prosperity that matter to the majority of Nigerians & every leader must think along that line and engage to realize that”, Ikpeazu had twitted.

The potency of Obasanjo’s meeting with some PDP leaders and Obi in far away United Kingdom is already being felt in the opposition camps; it has once again inspired confidence in some quarters that the current Third Force movement might sustain its relevance beyond expectations or could be replaced by a merger if Obi, according to speculations, collapses his current political capital to work with Atiku or vise versa, for one purpose – to sack the ruling party.

For Minister of State for Labour and Productivity and spokesperson of the APC presidential campaign, Festus Keyamo, the meeting is not different from the normal consultation that may not yield any positive result going by the stiff and opposing interests of the main actors involved.

Keyamo who said he was speaking in his personal capacity and not as the APC presidential spokesperson, told THISDAY that he believed that the meetings may not be Obasanjo’s initiative but something orchestrated for the optics by some actors to legitimise preconceived decisions.

His words: “Speaking for myself and not for my party. I do not read much meaning to it; I think it is part of politics to consult widely, especially with those who have been in the game for long, hence the consultation with Obasanjo.

“Those meetings may not be Obasanjo’s initiative; it may be the other way round; some leaders may just want the optics or photo-op with Obasanjo to legitimise preconceived decisions they have decided to make.

“Some of those who met have interests that are so diametrically opposed that it would be difficult to find common grounds,” said the Minister who called on political parties’ leaders to pay more attention to the ordinary Nigerians and what they feel or think, because ultimately, the people will decide.

Some political analysts said Obi is possibly ganging up with forces in other opposition parties, the PDP and Kwankwaso’s NNPP, supervised by Obasanjo to form what they have tagged ‘Government of National Unity’. 

This may sound opaque for now but it is something the ruling party should be weary of and that way the APC needs to sit up and find internal unity ahead of 2023 polls.

Nigerians want to see a keenly contested presidential election. They have resolved that 2023 will not be business as usual and many are optimistic that the outcome of the election will be the turning point for the country’s political leadership at all levels.

Whoever emerges will no longer take people’s interest for granted as the level of awareness has not only increased, just as recent indications have shown that there would be an increase in the level of participation. 

The APC still controls a strong majority in the national assembly and has the biggest power base and financial muscle, coupled with majority of state governors in its kitty going into the election. But with current agitations across the country against the party, it has a lot of work to do as campaigns kick of next month.

While this remain a thing of concern, Tinubu is also struggling to quell some internal cracks in his party as he plans to meet some major stakeholders of the party, especially those who ran against him at the presidential primary election.

No doubt, Tinubu has painstakingly prepared for the task over the past four years by not only planting his loyalists in key political positions, both at state and federal levels, he is also well equipped with the intrigues of the country’s political terrain.

Whether Obasanjo will succeed in his new mission and love for everything he has worked for or worked against in the past, will surely depend on how he can outsmart Tinubu or his ability to bring together the Obi’s Labour movement, Kwankwaso and his new found NNPP, the Atiku group and the vibrant Wike faction.