HOW WILL THE NORTHWEST VOTE IN 2023?

Elections in Nigeria have always been based on the trajectory of voting regions. This has always been the case since the 1959 elections where the North had more seats and a better bargaining power. Since the return to democracy, the North west region has always played a prominent role in elections. It must be stated that getting a good outcome in the Northwest does make a dent on the election numbers but it doesn’t generally win the elections.

President Buhari always maintained the strength of winning the Northwest, and most of his opponents since 2003 always worked on reducing the margin of loss. The Northwest includes the KKK states, Kano, Kaduna and Katsina, which will give any candidate over three million votes depending on the turnout. Most candidates win elections with a 15-17 million number, expect Jonathan that crossed the 20million threshold over 10 years ago.

The Northwest is going to be a battleground region, but tribe does play a prominent role and religion does too. We can’t deny the fact that Nigerians are tribal and religious in their outlook. Ideally, we want a country where irrespective of your region, you get general acceptance but we still have those sentiments. Some will argue MKO Abiola changed that but I dare ask, is Abiola on this ballot? And this is not 1993 where the goal was to remove the military.

The big question is where will the Northwest go? Some say Tinubu has got assurances, but the question is, how bankable are they? When a Fulani man is also on the ballot? It remains to be seen the interplay that would come out in the Northwest. They is also a big argument that the region is changing and the voting influence hitherto largely hinged on religious leadership is waning but I will argue that religious leaders will still play a prominent role in the scheme of things and radio stations will also help sway votes. I dare say we don’t understand the role of the BBC Hausa service in our elections, which happens to be the biggest media outlet in Nigeria with about 20-26 million listeners weekly. Even if the BBC maintains its neutrality the question is who gets most of the exposure? The interesting dynamic is that the platform is on shortwave, it can reach any part of the country.

Also on speaking to more politicians in the North, they also make a strong case of power coming back to the North through Atiku, some of them argue that since Jonathan broke the flow, they haven’t been compensated appropriately so a Northwest vote is most likely to go to Atiku. I have also heard mentions of Peter Obi and Kwankwaso in the Northwest but not at the intensity of the latter two. There are strong indications that Kwankwaso might either do a deal with Tinubu or Atiku.

Apart from the religious and tribal outplays, another concern is the role money will play in delivery the Northwest. I must confess President Buhari had a cult following in the region, but he is no longer on the ballot, so the financial implications will be intense. I hazard a guess that this might be one of the most expensive elections in recent times.

As we hit the 172 days mark, one thing is certain, whoever wins the Northwest will make a dent on the elections numbers, but time will tell

 Rufai Oseni, rufaioseni@gmail.com