Can Buhari Give Nigeria Credible Elections?

 IN THE ARENA

As Nigeria celebrated her 62nd Independence yesterday amid diverse and divisive tendencies, there are apprehension and scepticism about President Muhammadu Buhari’s willingness to make good his promise to bequeath the legacy of credible elections upon the country, Gboyega Akinsanmi writes

Nigeria marked the 62nd anniversary of her political independence yesterday. Apparently, as most opinion leaders have observed, it was no mean feat despite diverse centrifugal forces that have threatened its frail cord of unity, since October 1,1960.

The jubilee was commemorated amid socio-economic and political uncertainties, which according to former President, Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Chief Joseph Daudu (SAN), had been the albatross of Africa’s most populous nation despite its natural endowment and resources.

From oil war in the Niger Delta to Boko Haram insurgencies in the North-east, banditry in North-west, sessionist agigations in the South-west and South-east, Daudu’s observation conforms to prevalent realities that Nigeria has indeed been the shithole of economic contradiction, political crises and social upheaval since 1999 when it again transited to a civil rule after decades of despotic regimes.

With these socio-political dynamics, Convener, Alliance on Surviving COVID-19 and Beyond, Mr. Femi Falana (SAN), like most civil society actors, believed the world’s biggest black nation faced a grim political future with the general election already scheduled to hold between February 25 and March 11, 2023.

But President Muhammadu Buhari has consistently held an optimistic view about the future of Nigeria. His view sharply contrasts with the views most civil society officials and opposition parties have at different times expressed due to observable divisive tendencies that characterise the country’s socio-political relations under Buhari’s administration.

Despite these grievous defeatist tendencies, Buhari has promised to bequeath “a legacy of credible, free, fair and transparent elections on Nigeria” before completing his constitutional two-term administration by May 28, 2023. This promise formed the kernel of his address at the 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held between September 12 and 25, 2023.

At the assembly, the president told the world leaders that a new president “will represent the federation at the next United Nations General Assembly.” He also reiterated his unshaken belief in the sanctity of constitutional term limits, to which he promised to adhere irrespective of what might be the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.

He thus said: “We have seen the corrosive impact on values when leaders elsewhere seek to change the rules to stay on in power. Indeed, we are now preparing for the general elections next February. We have invested heavily” to strengthen the country’s framework for free and fair elections.

“As President, I have set the goal that one of the enduring legacies I would like to leave at the end of my administration is to entrench a process of free, fair and transparent and credible elections through which Nigerians elect leaders of their choice,” Buhari reportedly told the world leaders.

Before the global summit, Buhari had made a similar pledge while addressing Nigerians in Lisbon, Portugal in June 2022. At this meeting, he promised “a smooth transition to the next government.” Also, in December 2019, the president promised “to leave a legacy of credible elections behind” during a session with federal permanent secretaries to mark his 77th birthday in Abuja.

But is the president really committed to conducting credible elections? Can he fulfill his promise? Will he watch the All Progressives Congress (APC) lose the 2023 presidential poll? Can he stop his political allies from meddling in the electoral process that will produce his successor next year?

Due to his political persuasion or the sustained public demands, the president has, to some degree, demonstrated a political will to ensure credible elections in 2023.

This was evident in his resolve to see to the enactment of the Electoral (Amendment) Act, 2022 on February 25. It was however believed that the new electoral regime should have been enacted in 2018. But Buhari then withheld his assent due to what the opposition ascribed to “a ploy to manipulate the process to ensure his re-election in 2019.”

Since February 25, the Electoral Act has been in force, which as shown in the 2022 Ekiti and Osun Governorship Elections, substantially reduced the prospects of vote theft, ballot box snatching, multiple thumb printing and electoral manipulation that characterised the country’s previous elections.

As evident in the recent governorship elections conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the two states, however, the new electoral regime has forced the political parties and their candidates to resort to vote – buying as a strategy to win elections.

In the same way that it compelled the political actors to buy votes during the recent elections, the new electoral regime spurred the electorate to sell their ballots to the highest bidders, a new trend, which according to the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) in a recent report, gravely threatened the future elections. 

This is a dangerous political phenomenon, which the Chairman Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), Mr. Auwal Rafsanjani claimed Buhari’s administration “lacks the political will to address decisively because the ruling party is a beneficiary of vote trading just as other political parties are culpable of the illicit practice.”

Buhari’s decision to endorse the 2022 Electoral Act obviously espoused his promise to leave “a legacy of credible elections behind.” But the pervasive trend of vote trading cast a pall on the promise triggered by the disturbing cases of extreme poverty, youth unemployment and weakening purchasing powers that compelled most willing vote sellers to accept the offers of desperate vote buyers.

Apart from signing the new electoral regime, the tense political environment in nearly all geo-political zones further eclipses Buhari’s resolve to work for a transparent electoral process. This is evident in the worsening insecurity, which recent intelligence communities have revealed, now threatens the conduct of future elections in  at least 680 communities nationwide.

However, the president has set a time limit for the security agencies, the Nigeria Armed Forces, Nigeria Police Force and Department of State Services, to take back ungoverned spaces, which armed non-state actors occupied across the federation.

In 2015, the country experienced such a horrible situation, which then compelled the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan to postpone the general election by two weeks.

For APC, then an aggressive opposition that picked holes in all government policies, Jonathan was plotting to manipulate the 2015 electoral process in his favour for postponing the general election due to pervasive insecurity essentially in four local government areas in the North-east.

Today, as Falana observed, the political environment is now more pervasive and tense nationwide than it was under Jonathan. Under Buhari, insecurity has plagued virtually all the  six geo-political zones. Unlike 2015 when it was largely limited to the North-east, as shown in the conflict maps of the Council for Foreign Relations, it is now endemic in the North-central, North-west and South-east.

With this debilitating conflict context, can Buhari guarantee credible polls as he promised the world? Il Beyond Buhari’s promise, every Nigerian, especially the civil society as the third sector of every federation, must insist on outright disclosure of every process leading to the 2023 general election from election logistics to the deployment of voting materials and election security.