UN: No Credible Path to 1.5°C Carbon Emissions Reduction Target

*Shell earns $9.454bn in Q3, second highest ever 

*Oil giant’s shareholder distributions hit $26bn

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

As growing climate change impacts are experienced across the globe, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has said as of today, there’s no credible pathway to achieving the 1.5°c carbon emissions target.

In a new report, “Emissions Gap Report 2022”, the body stated that  the message that greenhouse gas emissions must fall is unambiguous, explaining that findings have shown that the international community is falling far short of the Paris goals.

It stated that with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place, only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid climate disaster.
President Muhammadu Buhari recently set a 2050 goal for Nigeria to meet the NetZero target for the country, although for a country that depends almost solely on hydrocarbons sale for its foreign exchange earnings,  it remains to be seen how this will be achieved.

The report showed that updated national pledges since COP26 – held in 2021 in Glasgow, UK – make a negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions and that the world is far from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C.
“Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise by the end of the century, for conditional and unconditional pledges respectively.

“The report finds that only an urgent system-wide transformation can deliver the enormous cuts needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions by 2030: 45 per cent compared with projections based on policies currently in place to get on track to 1.5°C and 30 per cent for 2°C,” it stated.

The UN body stated that the report provides an in-depth exploration of how to deliver the transformation, looking at the required actions in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.
Meanwhile, Shell intends to lift its dividend and is launching a new share buyback programme after reporting its second-highest quarterly earnings for Q3, second only to the record profit for the previous quarter.

Shell reported on Thursday adjusted earnings—the measure most closely watched by analysts—of $9.454 billion for the third quarter, the second-highest quarterly profit for Shell ever, after the record earnings of $11.472 billion for the second quarter.    

Shares in Shell shot up by more than 2per cent at opening in London after the release of the results, oilprice.com reported.
For the third quarter, Shell saw lower earnings from its gas division, as it had already flagged earlier this month.
The Q3 adjusted earnings below Q2 levels mainly reflected lower trading and optimisation results in addition to lower volumes, including the impact of maintenance and the strike at the Prelude LNG in Australia, Shell said.

The trading and optimisation results in gas were “impacted by seasonality and supply constraints, coupled with substantial differences between paper and physical realisation in a volatile and dislocated market,” it added.

Shell’s refining margins were lower in the third quarter, due to a recovery in global product supply to meet demand. Chemicals margins were also lower compared to Q2, due to higher feedstock and utility costs.
Nevertheless, Shell said it delivered “robust results from a resilient portfolio.”
“Today we are announcing a new share buyback programme resulting in an additional $4 billion of distributions, which we expect to complete by our Q4 2022 results announcement.

“Furthermore, we plan to increase the Dividend Per Share (DPS) for the fourth quarter, which will be paid in March 2023, by an expected 15 per cent, subject to board approval,” Chief Executive, Ben van Beurden, said in a statement.
The new share repurchase programme is expected to be completed by the time the supermajor announces Q4 2022 results in early February 2023.
So far this year, the announced 2022 shareholder distributions are around $26 billion, Shell said.