Wet Season: AFEX Forecast 11.5% Decline in Maize, Paddy Rice, Sorghum, Cocoa Production

Oluchi Chibuzor

Nigeria’s leading commodities market player, AFEX, has forecasted 11.5 per cent production decline in Maize, Paddy Rice, Sorghum and Cocoa for the 2022 wet season crop production.

AFEX in its 2022 Wet Season Crop Production Report however projected a 6.5 per cent increase in Soybean and Sesame. 

At a hybrid event to announce the report, AFEX said it seeks to provide accurate and reliable data to aid the understanding of the national food system through farmer surveys and measurement of transaction level data, track six key commodities and their performance in the preceding season. 

As reflected in the report, price and market changes across maize, paddy rice, sorghum, soybean, cocoa, and sesame have been affected due to predictable seasonality effects, activities in the agricultural value chain and larger macroeconomic global events.

AFEX forecasted an average decline in production levels of up to 11.5 percent across commodities like maize, paddy rice, sorghum, and cocoa, while soybean and sesame will experience a close to 6.5 per cent increase in production levels.

According to the report Nigeria’s most consumed grains are currently faced with declining food balance sheets as consumption levels rise faster than production levels, worsening food insecurity. 

Speaking at the event, AFEX’s Head of Market Data and Research, David Ibidapo, who presented the report findings, said: “AFEX’s annual crop production report seeks to provide robust market intelligence for agriculture value chain players in Nigeria. We have more than doubled the count of farmers surveyed for this research, up from 9117 farmers surveyed last year to 20,677 farmers surveyed for this year’s report.”

He also specified key indicators measured through the survey, stating that, “Factors such as land usage, inputs (quality of seeds and fertilizer usage), weather conditions, and the farmers’ output expectations were put into primary consideration.”

Meanwhile higher prices were forecasted across all commodities in the report, with soybean price projected to rise by 6 per cent by May 2023. 

For example maize which faces a projected decline in production levels of up to 14 per cent, is subsequently projected to reach a higher average price point ranging between $486.72 (N214,980/MT) and $498.09 (N220,000/MT) by the end of Q4 2022, compared to an average price of N475.97 (N210,229/MT) in Q4 2021. 

It added, “The projected price hikes across commodities in the report were also tied majorly to incidences of flooding resulting from incessant rainfall in key producing regions. This is indicated to further heighten the gap between production and output levels by farmers.  

“The effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to be felt in the local agricultural commodity markets, especially because of the hike in the price of fertiliser. This negative impact was also highlighted in the report as affecting the output level of most commodities. The report forecasts paddy rice as being the most susceptible to production and output pressures, facing close to a 22.47% decline in production volumes this year in the wake of the crisis-induced fertiliser price hike.”