Agbakoba’s Agenda for Presidential Candidates

Emmanuel Addeh writes on the recent attempt by a senior lawyer and veteran human rights activist, Mr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN), to draw the attention of stakeholders to the ‘big issues’ and set the agenda for politicians and the electorate as the 2023 general election approaches

A former President  of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) needs no introduction whether in the civil society space or in the expansion of the frontiers of the legal profession in Nigeria.

The legal luminary and Senior Partner of Olisa Agbakoba Legal (AOL), believes that Nigeria is in an extremely fragile state and therefore requires someone who will carefully untangle the many issues.

In seeking to refocus the issues that are relevant to Nigerians, Agbakoba,  at a recent presentation to the public of OAL’s Policy Report 2022 titled: ‘Big Issues for the 2023 General Election’,  he authored with Collins Okeke, said that he believes that Nigeria has continued to exhibit characteristics of a failing state and therefore needs to be rescued.

“There are conflicts and agitations everywhere; feelings of marginalisation and exclusion, rise in political and criminal violence, loss of control of borders, rising ethnic, religious, and cultural hostilities,” he said.

In addition, the maritime lawyer submitted that there are the issues of weak institutions, food shortages, unemployment, inflation, crumbling infrastructure, deteriorating human development indicators such as infant and maternal mortality and literacy rates.

“These troubling realities make the 2023 general election a defining moment for the country which, in turn, raise the need for a thorough and insightful search for who will preside over the affairs of the country after President Muhammadu Buhari,” he added.

For Agbakoba, the report essentially reviews a few of the big issues that should engage the mind of any presidential candidate interested in leading Nigeria. It also recommends innovative legislation, policies, and executive order. He noted that the candidate who emerges as president next year must understand all the issues and have a clear vision of where to take the country.

From matters of national unity, the economy to insecurity, he argued that his abiding hope in releasing the report which comprises two parts, namely: challenges and solutions, was to contribute to the political and economic transformation of Nigeria.

Under the mounting challenges, the senior lawyer posited that the first big issue confronting the new president will be to handle the current disunity, disorder, and insecurity bedevilling the country. If these are not resolved, he argued, there will be no peace and the president cannot deliver on his mandate.

“This is an issue all presidential candidates correctly identify as an existential threat but are not quite clear on how to resolve it. Nigeria has never been this disunited and disordered. The International Index of failed states says Nigeria is in a low-grade civil war.

“There is insecurity, conflict, and agitation everywhere. The South-west of Nigeria is plagued by a surge in cybercrime, armed robbery, kidnapping, domestic crime, extrajudicial killings, herder-farmer conflicts, and banditry.

“The South-east is a haven for killings, commercial crime, secessionist agitation, kidnapping, herder-farmer clashes, attacks by unknown gunmen, and banditry. The South-south remains threatened by militancy, kidnapping, and environmental agitation.

“The North-east has been subject to a humanitarian crisis lasting over a decade and caused by the Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State in West Africa Province. Meanwhile, the North-west is enmeshed in illegal mining, ethno-religious killings, and banditry. How will the presidential candidates address these issues,” he queried.

He also cited the humongous economic issues, with the Nigerian economy already in a technical recession.

“This is complicated by high-interest rates, lending and exchange rates, unemployment, poverty, structural defects caused by budget deficit, debt crisis, and shrinking revenue. 

“Apart from disunity, disorder, and insecurity, a weak economy must challenge all presidential candidates. “Unfortunately, whilst most presidential candidates refer to issues relating to the economy generally, there are no specifics.  The new president will be confronted with a massive debt burden of close to N80 trillion,” he explained.

In his breakdown of the debts, Agbakoba noted that this includes a current debt stock of N41.6 trillion in March 2022, ‘Ways and Means’ borrowing at over N19.9 trillion, FGN debt bonds at N5.1 trillion issued since April 2022, and a projected deficit of over N11 trillion to finance the budget of 2023.

Already at risk of borrowing to pay interest on its debt obligations, he quoted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as having predicted that Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio would jump to 92 per cent in 2022 from 76 per cent in 2021.

 Added to all these, he cited the admission by the Debt Management Office (DMO) that the country was unable to secure any foreign loan in the second quarter of 2022, leaving very little room for manoeuvring by the new government.

Another very serious issue which the next Nigerian leader will have to confront, Agbakoba noted, is the alarming unemployment figure in the country.

Citing available data, he disclosed that the number of unemployed Nigerians is over 20 million, stressing that poverty rate being the single biggest issue confronting the presidential candidates.

Apart from general statements, he argued that most presidential candidates have not revealed how they intend to reverse Nigeria’s alarming poverty which the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has put at 133 million Nigerians who are multi-dimensionally poor.

For Agbakoba, the matter of weak and inefficient judicial, legal, institutional and regulatory frameworks remain very important and must be resolved. He noted that it is generally agreed that a country with a weak legal, institutional and regulatory framework cannot develop economic opportunities.

“Unfortunately, Nigeria suffers from legal, institutional and regulatory failure. Any Nigerian president that comes into office will be confronted with weak institutions and impunity, a cost of governance that is too high, and a presidential system that leaves the task of developing legislative agenda to the National Assembly. Regrettably, this is not top of the agenda of most presidential candidates,” he lamented.

He stressed that the judicial system remains vital to the development process, adding that unfortunately, most presidential candidates have failed to talk about this.

“This is a big missing link in the manifestoes. The impact of an inefficient judiciary on development cannot be overstated. In our practice, many international clients are reluctant to come to Nigeria as they say that the legal and judicial process is sluggish.

“Unfortunately, most presidential candidates have not dealt extensively with the issue.  Many presidential candidates are unaware of the scope of legal failure.  A president must work with the Judiciary to give urgency to the justice sector and reverse legal failure. Legal failure must be converted to legal sanctity with no impunity in respect of rule of law,” he pointed explained.

According to Agbakoba, other big issues include Nigeria’s foreign policy and international relations and the energy crisis.

 In proffering solutions to the disunity and disorder in the country, Agbakoba suggestd three key areas namely: The challenge of a legitimate constitution, the issue of restructuring, and lastly, strengthening the local government system.

He explained that a legitimate constitution is the most vital political framework, stressing however that to succeed, four vital elements must exist including inclusivity, authority, validity, and legitimacy.

The senior lawyer stated that previous attempts at constitution-making have failed on the issue of legitimacy because the constitution was generally perceived as imposed by the military. He called for restructuring or devolution of powers, describing Nigeria’s federalism as over-centralised, which explains the continued agitation for the political restructuring of the country.

Also important, he added,  is empowering the local governments as the source of power at the base of the federal structure.

“This can be achieved through the principle of subsidiarity which is ensuring that governance is delivered at the lowest level,” he notes.

On insecurity, Agbakoba opined that Nigeria has spent over $1 trillion on resolving the matter with no significant result, stressing that the country needs a completely new security architecture, a smart army, navy, coast guard, and a revamped National Intelligence Agency.

“Nigeria also needs to massively deploy satellite technology for intelligence. Satellite technology and drones have the capacity to produce a detailed mapping of Nigeria, especially the security-challenged areas like the Sambisa Forest.

On the economy, he insisted that the next president should have an economic vision that harmonises the five critical aspects: The hard economy (infrastructure like roads, bridges), the soft economy (laws, rules, regulations, and institutions), the blue economy (the vast ocean resources like marine, fish oil, tourism, renewable energy, etc), the green economy (forestry, biodiversity, or reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and brown economy (industrial and extractive activities like mining, oil exploration, etc.).

He argued that Nigeria as it is, does not have a  coherent trade policy or legislation, explaining that is important to enact legislation that will support the Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiation (NOTN).

“Trade remedies legislation that imposes anti-dumping duties on dumped products should also be introduced. There are also countervailing special duties measures imposed on exports into Nigeria subsidised by a foreign country. The trade remedies legislation will also prohibit imports if it is judged that they will cause material injury to local industries, for example by impeding growth.

“It is also vital to develop a national local content policy to complement trade policy. A vibrant national local content policy will grow our local produce and make us self-sufficient in rice, maize, cassava, cotton, cocoa, tomato, oil palm, poultry, fish,” he said.

He also argued that the Land Use Act should be reformed while agriculture, mining, oil and gas and maritime should be improved.

“Maritime is potentially the largest economic sector outside oil and gas. Nigeria’s maritime sector is estimated to be capable of generating N7 trillion annually and four million jobs over five years.

“Most of this revenue is lost to neighbouring ports, especially Cotonou port.  The existing port infrastructure needs massive overhaul. Nigeria needs small smart ports with emerging technologies like Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) and electronic Bill of lading (eB/L).

“This can only come from strong private sector participation and a legal framework that encourages investments,” he argued.